'MAGA fatigue' crashes on deep-red state as voters flip on Trump for the first time
A new survey released Thursday shows more Missourians disapprove of President Donald Trump and Gov. Mike Kehoe’s job performance than approve.
For Trump, it is the first negative approval rating in the six-year history of the St. Louis University/YouGov poll. For Kehoe, it is the first since he took office last year.
Trump has lost 19 percentage points in net approval since he took office at the start of 2025 — including 14 points since February.
A survey taken last month showed 52% of Missourians polled said they disapprove or strongly disapprove of the president’s performance, while 47% said they approve or strongly approve.
For Kehoe, the decline is steeper. In February, Kehoe’s approval rating was 50%, with 14% who said they strongly approve of his job performance. In the poll taken last month, it had fallen to 39%, with 7% who said they strongly approve.
The poll showed 49% disapprove of Kehoe’s performance..
The SLU YouGov poll surveyed 900 likely voters between Aug. 13 and Aug. 24 and results have a margin of error of about 4%. The SLU YouGov poll was initiated in June 2020 and the August poll is the 11th time for the survey of Missouri voters.
Kehoe and other Missouri Republicans are suffering from Trump’s sagging popularity amid voter dissatisfaction with the Iran war and inflation, said Steve Rogers, poll director and associate professor of political science at St. Louis University.
“This is a little bit of MAGA fatigue,” Rogers said, “and we will likely see what we saw in the first Trump presidency midterm election, the Trump voters won’t show up.”
Election polling
That election, in 2018, was the last time a Democrat won statewide office in Missouri.
Republicans have held the governor’s office for the six-year history of the SLU YouGov poll. Kehoe is the first Republican governor to have a net negative rating. It is also the first time Trump has been underwater in the poll.
Other results show Republicans facing headwinds as the November election approaches.
For the only statewide race on this year’s ballot, the poll showed incumbent Republican State Auditor Scott Fitzpatrick leading Democratic candidate Quentin Wilson 45-43, within the margin of error. Neither candidate has raised large sums and the campaign has not generated much public enthusiasm.
The auditor’s race is akin to state offices below governor, where candidates have much less money and name recognition, Rogers said. Voters are going more on party labels than what they know about the candidates.
“If you just go two years ago, we polled on every statewide race, and below governor, every Republican had at least a 13-point lead,” Rogers said. “And now we’re doing the exact same thing two years later, and then with that, it’s only a two-point lead.”
The shift downward for Kehoe is greater, Rogers said, because he has embraced policies that proved unpopular with voters, from tax breaks for sports stadiums to ballot measures that were rejected by historic margins.
The poll was taken just after the primary, Rogers said, and Kehoe may have been punished by voter hangover.
The next poll, in February, will show whether Kehoe can recover.
“It’s a big change, and that’s why February will probably be very telling,” Rogers said. “This is a big change that was polled on, arguably, at Kehoe’s lowest point.”
On issues, the poll showed voters disapprove of the war in Iran by an 18-point margin, and two-thirds or more of respondents said they worry about affording healthcare, food and groceries, and gasoline, with three in five also saying they have trouble paying utility bills.
That discontent on national issues is visible in the generic partisan ballots for the fall elections, Rogers said.
Voters favor Republicans generally for a seat in the U.S. House and the Missouri House, but by a narrow margin of 4%. The U.S. House rating has moved 11 points towards Democrats since February. The generic ballot question for the Missouri House was asked for the first time.
The further Trump’s approval falls, Rogers said, the worse it will be for Republican candidates. Voters could punish legislative candidates even if they feel more favorably toward the Legislature than the president, he said.
“Presidential approval in Missouri this time round had twice the impact on state legislative voter choice than state legislative approval,” Rogers said.
Voters are split on the two biggest ballot measures for the Nov. 3 election. Amendment 3, which would reimpose a ban on abortion in most instances, has 43% in support and 44% opposed. Proposition A, a referendum on redistricting, has support from 35% and opposition from 32%, with 33% undecided.
The referendum question is complicated by voters not being sure what the answer is to the ballot question, Rogers said. The campaigns, where opponents of the 2025 map will argue for a “no” vote and proponents for a “yes” vote, have not launched the final push to Election Day.
The February poll also showed a split, but the 35%-32% division, with 33% undecided, shows uncertainty about what a vote means, he said.
“Very rarely do we get a pollster saying ‘I don’t think our result really reflects the true outcome,’” Rogers said. “It instead reflects a lot of confusion.”
Education perceptions
The poll routinely asks about participants’ impressions of public schools and the top education issues before state lawmakers.
This year’s leading education debate centers on a January executive order from Kehoe asking for public schools to be graded on an “A” through “F” scale based largely on standardized test scores.
Lawmakers failed to pass a law setting up Kehoe’s vision during legislative session, but the State Board of Education is set to approve a plan for the grade cards this month.
The proposal has drawn criticism from educators in feedback sessions led by the state’s education department, with school officials raising questions about how their districts will be scored.
According to the poll, a majority of Missourians support A-F grade cards “based
on state test results and graduation rates,” with 60% of respondents in favor and just 19% opposed. The results are largely unchanged from February.
The poll also asked participants how they would rate their local schools, with 51% responding that they would give an “A” or “B” grade. Just 3% would issue a failing grade.
In a similar question asking how respondents would rate the “condition of public schools in their community,” 39% gave their local district an “excellent” or “good” evaluation while 33% thought schools were fair and 24% had a poor impression.
Public perception of public schools in the state as a whole is less favorable, with 22% giving schools the “excellent” or “good” rating, 44% in the fair category, and 26% grading schools as poor.
People who view schools as doing poorly statewide were more likely to favor raising teacher salaries, by a 10% margin over people who view public schools as excellent. Overall, 81% of respondents thought teacher pay should increase.
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