"Iowa has been traditionally a field of dreams for the president of United States," said CNN's Harry Enten. "But it's quickly turning into potentially a field of nightmares. There seems to be a rural revolt going on in this country against Donald Trump. Take a look here: Rural voters and Trump, look, according to Fox News, he was easily winning them back in October of 2024 versus Kamala Harris, 18 points ahead. The exit poll even had it a bigger margin."
"But look at where he is now – whoo!" Enten exclaimed. "Down there underwater, underneath the cornfields. He's now 14 points underwater. That's over a 30-point switcheroo against the president."
The explanation for that reversal is fairly simple, according to Enten.
"Simply put, it's the economy, it's inflation," he said. "Take a look at this: You thought that that switcheroo was big, how about this one? Rural voters on Trump and inflation versus Kamala Harris. He was more trusted by 37 points. Now he is 19 points underwater with rural voters on inflation. That is an over 50-point switcheroo against the president of the United States. Rural voters, like the rest of the country, turning against Trump on the key issue that got him elected to a second term back in 2024."
Anger at the president has flowed down ballot to Republican congressional candidates and gubernatorial races, Enten said.
"You know, Donald Trump went and he has won all of these primaries," he said. "The candidates he endorsed have won all of these primaries, did not happen in Iowa. Well, just talk about Iowa Republicans here. The gubernatorial primary he endorsed Randy Feenstra, congressman from Iowa, and Feenstra actually won the absentee vote in that state by 15 points. Trump endorsed late, but the other candidate, Zach Lahn, look at this, he actually won those who voted on Election Day who knew about Trump's endorsement. In fact, they were considerably more favorable to Lahn than they were in a Feenstra, even after knowing that Trump had, in fact, backed Feenstra."
"It seemed to me that Iowa Republicans said, 'You know what, we hear you, Donald Trump, but you know what? We're dismissing that message,' again, part of a larger picture in my mind of rural voters not tuning in to what Donald Trump is telling him at this point," Enten added.
That shift against Trump is boosting Democratic chances in the midterm elections, Enten said.
"The last Democrat to win a Senate race in Iowa was all the way back in 2008," Enten said. "It was Tom Harkin. But what do we see here in terms of the Democrats' chances in Iowa and the governor's race and the Senate race? They have gone up like a rocket. We're now talking about Rob Sands running for governor with a greater than 50 percent chance, and it turns out that Josh Turek, who the Democratic establishment wanted, his chances have also been considerably rising at this point."
"If all of a sudden you're able to put Iowa on the board, if you're a Democrat hoping to win back control of the United States Senate, that would be a massive piece of the puzzle, and the last time Iowa elected a Democratic governor was all the way back in 2006, and that looks like a more likely possibility than not," Enten added.
- YouTube youtu.be
