'Super awkward': Expert explains what happens to Trump campaign if he’s convicted
Now that jury deliberations have begun in former President Donald Trump's first criminal trial, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee's lifestyle could change significantly depending on the verdict. If he's found guilty, things will get particularly complicated for Trump.
Even though the 34 charges the ex-president is facing are felonies, they're also all class E felonies, which don't require prison time for a guilty defendant. And because Trump would be a first-time offender, Justice Juan Merchan may not sentence him to prison if the jury returns a guilty verdict. However, New York City Mayor Eric Adams has said that a section of the city's Rikers Island jail will be prepared for Trump in the event the former president is in fact ordered to spend time behind bars.
Other options that don't include prison in the event of a guilty verdict include probation and home confinement. While Trump wouldn't have to be confined to a cell in those instances, they would still inhibit his freedom of movement. This could prove difficult for the 45th president of the United States as he seeks a second term, given that he would have to get clearance from a probation officer before embarking on any out-of-state trips.
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Matthew Galluzzo, who is a former prosecutor with the Manhattan District Attorney's Office, told the Washington Post that a probation sentence would still be "super awkward for someone on the campaign trail, but not impossible."
"If you have a probation officer, you are not supposed to travel without permission. Your home is subject to random search because you don’t have a Fourth Amendment right to your home being private. You can get drug-tested, potentially. Travel outside the country is difficult," he said. "If he had to go to a debate against [President Joe] Biden, he probably could go, but you’re supposed to make that request far in advance."
On the other hand, if Merchan sentenced Trump to home confinement, he wouldn't be allowed to leave his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, even though he's in the middle of a campaign where at least six states' Electoral College votes will be hotly contested. This could mean Trump does remote campaign rallies where he appears on-screen in front of crowds, holds regular press conferences and hosts meetings with donors. Merchan could also order Trump to pay fines or even undergo counseling.
Interestingly, nothing in the U.S. Constitution prevents Trump from being president if elected, or even being head of state if he were behind bars. But because Trump is a Florida resident, he would not be allowed to vote for himself under state law, which requires that all convicted felons complete their sentence and pay all restitution before they can have their voting rights restored.
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If Trump were sentenced to probation, he would have to get permission from his probation officer before traveling to debate Biden on June 27 in Atlanta, Georgia. He would also likely need prior permission before the September 10 debate, which does not yet have a confirmed location.
The jury in Trump's first criminal trial began deliberations on Wednesday, after both sides finished presenting their closing arguments. If the jury returns a guilty verdict, Trump will almost certainly appeal. That process could very well drag on until after the November election.
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