Majority of likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers disagree with Trump’s abortion comments
Nevertheless, the poll shows the former president continues to lead the field for the 2024 GOP caucuses, scheduled for Jan. 15.
A plurality of likely Republican caucusgoers said they were taking presidential candidates’ positions on abortion restrictions into account ahead of the 2024 Republican presidential nominating cycle, according to poll results published Wednesday. Abortion restrictions were “extremely important” for 41% of those surveyed, “important” for 38% and not that important for 20%, the poll found.
Over half of likely GOP caucusgoers said they disagreed with Trump’s comments criticizing six-week abortion bans. During a “Meet the Press” interview in September, Trump called his 2024 rival Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ decision to sign into law a six-week abortion ban a “terrible thing and a terrible mistake.”
The former president has defended his comments on the abortion ban in Iowa. He said Republican politicians’ positions on the topic after U.S. Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022 is the reason the GOP did not see the expected “red wave” during the 2022 midterm elections. At a Dubuque rally in September, Trump said Republicans need to emphasize their support for abortion ban exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother while campaigning.
“Without the exceptions, it is very difficult to win the elections,” Trump said. “We would probably lose the majorities in 2024 without the exceptions, and perhaps the presidency itself. But you have to follow your heart. … But at the same time, we have to win elections. We don’t want to be back where we were.”
Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds criticized Trump’s comments, saying in a social media post that “it’s never a ‘terrible thing’ to protect innocent life.” Reynolds signed into law a similar measure to the Florida ban in July.
In the Iowa Poll, 52% of respondents said they disagree with Trump calling a six-week abortion ban a “terrible mistake,” while 36% said they agreed with his comment and 12% were not sure.
Though most likely GOP caucusgoers do not agree with Trump’s stance on abortion bans, he remains the frontrunner in the 2024 Republican presidential field in the lead-up to the Iowa caucuses. The Iowa Poll found 43% of Iowans definitely or probably attending the Republican caucuses have Trump as their first choice. His lead ahead of other candidates grew from the August to October poll, rising from 23 to 27 percentage points ahead of DeSantis, his closest competitor in both polls.
Bob Vander Plaats, the CEO of the religious conservative organization Family Leader, wrote in a social media post that the Iowa Poll results show that Trump’s lead in Iowa is not as strong as some analysts believe. Vander Plaats wrote that he believes most Iowans, “when they open their eyes,” will realize that Trump does not share their beliefs of many core issues.
“Life being one of them,” he wrote.
Groups supporting DeSantis are hoping to use Trump’s abortion ban comments to close the distance. And To The Republic, a conservative advocacy group, is sponsoring a $550,000 ad campaign in Iowa highlighting Trump’s comments on Florida’s abortion law, according to The Hill.
The campaign, targeting Iowa conservatives through mail, digital, television and text message ads, will contrast Reynolds’ support for the six-week abortion ban and Trump’s criticism.
“A law protecting babies with heartbeats? Terrible?” the narrator says in an ad, encouraging Iowans to contact Reynolds and “thank her for continuing to protect life.”
Trump supported Reynolds in her 2022 reelection campaign, but has criticized her on social media for not endorsing him for president. The Iowa governor said in August that she may endorse a candidate “down the road,” but that she has been focused on ensuring 2024 Republican presidential candidates all have a chance to be heard on the Iowa caucus trail in the months ahead of the 2024 nominating process.
The former president has accused Reynolds of supporting DeSantis for the presidential nomination. In October, Trump made a social media post suggesting Reynolds’ job approval has fallen due to her relationship to DeSantis.
“Very sad to see Gov Reynolds Numbers go down because of DeSanctimonious – I did so much for her,” Trump wrote.
DeSantis holds the second-place position in many early state and national polls, but former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is rising in popularity with some Republicans looking for a Trump alternative. DeSantis and Haley tied with 15% of Iowa Poll takers saying they were the respondent’s first choice in the caucuses.
Haley has also moved ahead of DeSantis in some New Hampshire and South Carolina polls, but DeSantis retained a larger footprint in Iowa. The Florida governor has 67% of likely Republican caucusgoers who rank him as their first or second choice, or who are “actively considering” him — the same total as Trump. Haley has a smaller total of 54% who plan to support her or who are considering her for the 2024 Iowa caucuses.
Haley’s rise in polls has coincided with an increase in international conflicts involving U.S. allies like Israel and Ukraine. The candidate has emphasized her foreign policy experience at the United Nations in Trump’s administration on the campaign trail, and called for the U.S. to support Israel in their war against Hamas following the Oct. 7 attack as well as Ukraine against Russian invasion.
The Israel-Hamas war was “extremely important” to more poll takers than relations with China, at 57% and 50% respectively. Only a third of respondents said the Russia-Ukraine war was a primary issue for them in the 2024 presidential nominating process. The only two issues a majority of likely Republican caucusgoers said were not considerations to them were climate change, with 66% saying the issue was “not that important,” and COVID-19 vaccination at 76%.
The most important issues for those planning to participate in the Republican caucuses were immigration and the economy. The Iowa Poll found 80% ranked “immigration and border security,” and 81% “the economy and inflation” as extremely important issues ahead of the 2024 election cycle. “Government spending and the deficit” was a top subject for 72% of likely GOP caucusgoers.
Transgender issues — such as transgender athletes participating in competitions or access for gender-affirming health care for transgender minors — are also important to a plurality of likely Republican caucusgoers. Transgender issues are an “extremely important” issue for 32% of Iowans polled, important for 31%, but not important to 35%.
Selzer & Co. conducted the Iowa Poll Oct. 22-26, surveying 404 likely Republican caucusgoers. Poll results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
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