All posts tagged "john mccain"

Meghan McCain loses it over indiscretions of fictional character on White Lotus

Meghan McCain continued her war of words Thursday with actor Carrie Coon, who plays "Laurie" in Season Three of HBO Max's hit series The White Lotus.

Coon told The Hollywood Reporter that McCain must have felt "gratified" at seeing a conservative character on the show — a woman who lives in Austin, Texas named "Kate" played by actor Leslie Bibb.

In Episode Three, "Kate" reveals to her friends, "much to their amazement, that she voted for Donald Trump in the recent U.S. election."

Coon told The Hollywood Reporter that the "Trump" twist was part of a larger story line about transgenderism that was cut after Trump's November victory.

Coon said that writer and director Mike White "had intended for Coon’s character to have a more extensive backstory before Trump’s executive orders targeting transgender, nonbinary and intersex Americans made the plot line appear too fleeting."

"I do think people like Meghan McCain and her community are really gratified to see a conservative person on television. I have conservative people in my life who reached out to me to say that was an awesome conversation, because I don’t think it vilifies Kate," Coon said in reference to Kate's suggesting that she voted for Donald Trump.

McCain posted to X, "Yes Carrie, I am 'gratified' that the conservative character represented on White Lotus is the responsible, family-oriented one not making a fool of herself. Unlike the progressive liberal you're representing who is sleeping with hotel staff and showing her t--- to everyone."

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The spat has been raging since March when McCain thanked President Donald Trump for supporting cancer treatments during his State of the Union address.

McCain posted on social media, "This is the first time I can remember crying during a state of the union. Thank you President Trump. This is so beautiful. Anyone who has been impacted by brain cancer knows how special this is."

Coon commented under the post, "Who's gonna tell her?" in reference to McCain's father, the late Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), who was no fan of Trump and who died of brain cancer in 2018.

Meghan McCain responded with a meme of the conservative "Kate" giving a smirk.

McCain posted that she couldn’t decide if she should "still watch White Lotus tonight since one of the stars decided to tweet some nasty c--p at me.”

But fellow conservative Megyn Kelly told McCain, “Watch it anyway. Virtually every star in every movie and TV show hates conservatives, who could watch nothing if the prerequisite were: the ppl on screen could possibly like me or be like me.”

Read The Hollywood Reporter article here.

Yes: VP pick Tim Walz matters for winning the election. History shows it.

Growing up in Texas, we were treated to stories of colorful political characters. Few could top John Nance “Cactus Jack” Garner, who once pronounced that the vice-president position “is not worth a bucket of warm spit.” (Some say Garner said worse.)

That seems to be the opinion of more than a few pundits and political scientists. National Public Radio, The Economist and Politico have all run articles asserting how little impact a vice presidential pick makes on the ultimate outcome of a presidential election.

I take a different approach, comparing vice presidential picks’ performance in their states to how the party did in that state four years earlier.

Vice presidential picks: a recent history

To test their hypothesis, I analyzed how a party’s presidential ticket performed in the vice president nominees’ state in a given election year. Then I compared it to how the party’s ticket did in that state four years earlier.

It turns out that more often than not, a vice presidential candidate running as vice president for the first time helps you perform better in his or her state than four years earlier when that VP candidate wasn’t on the ticket.

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For example, did Mike Pence help Donald Trump’s performance in Indiana during 2016 compared to how Republicans did in 2012? This case matters, given that Democrats won Indiana in 2008.

By the same token, did Democrats do better in Virginia with Sen. Tim Kaine as Hillary Clinton’s running mate in 2016 than Democrats did in the same state during 2012?

In these most recent 17 cases, where the vice presidential nominee isn’t already a vice president running for reelection — such as Joe Biden in 2012 — the vice presidential candidate boosted the party ticket 10 times in his or her home state. On seven occasions, the VP candidate did not do as well for his or her party as the party did four years ago in the state.

There were three cases where the vice presidential candidate boost or drag on the ticket was less than a percentage point. Taking those three out means that on nine occasions, the vice presidential candidate improved the ticket in his or her state. In five cases, the VP candidate did not help the ticket in the state he or she is from.

The average boost a vice presidential candidate gets a ticket in his or her own state is 4.4 percentage points, when considering all 17 cases.

That difference definitely matters in 2024.

As recently as last month, some polls put Trump ahead of Biden in Minnesota, which Biden had won by about 7 percentage points in 2020.

With Biden off the ticket, the advantage has swung back toward Democrats, but Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz’s addition to the ticket Tuesday will all but ensure that Minnesota — a must-win for Kamala Harris’ presidential chances — stays blue.

In three cases (1976 Democrats, 1980 Republicans and 1992 Democrats), a vice presidential candidate helped flip a state. In 2016, Kaine boosted the Democrats in his swing state of Virginia in a tight election — Clinton won Virginia, even if she lost the election.

One should also consider the cases where a presidential candidate would have done much better, possibly winning the overall election, with a better vice presidential selection.

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Imagine President Gerald Ford keeping Vice President Nelson Rockefeller — and winning New York in 1976. It could have meant the difference in Ford defeating Democrat Jimmy Carter and winning his own four-year term after assuming the presidency from disgraced Richard Nixon. Instead, Carter narrowly won New York — and the election.

It’s also hard to imagine Democrat Al Gore losing Florida with the highly popular Sunshine State politician Bob Graham — a senator and governor — in 2000. Instead, he picked Connecticut's Joe Lieberman.

Republicans would have almost certainly fared a bit better against Democrat Barack Obama with a ticket of John McCain and Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania in 2008, instead of McCain and then-Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) might have helped Mitt Romney in 2012, at least in Ohio.

Still need convincing?

Many others in the media and academia have challenged the idea that vice presidential picks matter.

The Economist takes issue with the notion that vice presidential nominee Lyndon B. Johnson delivered the 1960 election to John F. Kennedy, who edged out Nixon in one of the nation’s closest elections in history.

And they might be right, given that the only states that voted for Democrat Adlai Stevenson II in 1952 and 1956 were from the South. Yet Dwight D. Eisenhower, the Republican, did win Johnson’s home state of Texas in both elections, and Kennedy captured Texas in 1960.

In a recent interview with A Martínez from National Public Radio, professor Kyle Kopko at Elizabethtown College takes issue with the idea that a VP candidate can deliver an election:

MARTÍNEZ: All right. So if the Harris campaign is thinking about picking a VP candidate to help them carry one of November's swing states, what is your message to them? Kyle, let's start with you there.

KOPKO: Well, first of all, it's probably not going to happen. Whenever we estimate a number of statistical models dating back decades, it's pretty rare that we find a vice presidential candidate that can deliver a battleground state. And even if they could, then it really has to be the decisive state in the Electoral College really to make a difference. So you can think about this as lightning needing to strike ever just right for it to count in the presidential election.

In a Politico article two elections ago, Kopko and Christopher Devine go into more detail about their model.

They look at state-level election returns from 1884-2012. They also delve in public opinion polls from 1952-2008 to see how much a vice-presidential candidate means for their home state.

Here are their findings: “While presidential candidates typically enjoy a home-state advantage (approximately 3 points to 7 points), vice presidential candidates generally do not. In each of the three analyses described above, a presidential ticket performs no better in the vice-presidential candidate’s home state than we would expect otherwise. Statistically speaking, the effect is zero.”

It's not that Kopko and Devine are wrong, but they are looking at eras with many blowout elections.

Think of Republican victories from 1896-1908 (William McKinley, Teddy Roosevelt), 1920-1928 (Warren G. Harding, Calvin Coolidge), and 1952-1956 (Eisenhower), or Democratic dominance from 1932-1944 (Franklin D. Roosevelt).

It wouldn’t have mattered if you put Superman on the ticket for the losing side, even with the X-ray vision.

But in more recent years, with 24-hour media and social media coverage, we learn a lot more about Palin, Pence, Kamala Harris and Joe Biden than America ever heard about Thomas Marshall, Thomas Hendricks, Levi P. Morton or Allen G. Thurman in those days.

Legacy of Charles not-quite-in-charge

But in more recent years, from 1976-2020, one could say that it’s a whole new ballgame for vice presidential picks.

And the selections of J. D. Vance of Ohio and Walz of Minnesota are likely to have a much bigger impact than Charles Fairbanks, Charles G. Dawes, Charles Curtis, Charles W. Bryan and Charles L. McNary (all vice presidential picks between 1904-1940) ever did.

John A. Tures is a professor of political science at LaGrange College in LaGrange, Georgia. His views are his own. He can be reached at jtures@lagrange.edu. His “X” account is JohnTures2.

What history says about V.P. picks: senator, governor or wild card?

We know this much: Vice President Kamala Harris will pick her running mate before accepting her party’s presidential nomination in August at the Democratic National Convention.

Harris also has a short list of about a dozen potential candidates she’s vetting, according to CBS News.

So should she choose a U.S. senator, governor, U.S. House representative — or someone else?

Let’s examine the historical record to see which type of vice presidential candidates have helped — or hurt — a presidential ticket.

Since 1945, presidential candidates have made 31 vice presidential picks — not counting vice presidential renominations.

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Of these 31 picks, 19 most recently served in elected office as U.S. senators, four were governors and seven had prior electoral experience only from the House of Representatives, such as Dick Cheney and George H. W. Bush. One did not have experience in any of those offices.

Of their 18 vice presidential selections, Democrats have chosen a U.S. senator in 16 cases since 1945. The Republicans are a little more diverse in their selections, with four U.S. Senate picks — including Donald Trump’s selection of J. D. Vance — four gubernatorial picks and six selections from the House of Representatives.

There’s the adage that a vice president can only hurt you, and he or she can’t help you. Gov. Nelson Rockefeller, who Gerald Ford selected when he replaced President Richard Nixon as president, was not renominated by Ford when he unsuccessfully ran for his own term in 1976 — not that it mattered much in the end.

Historical evidence indicates that the prior job of the running mate makes little difference in victory or defeat — if he or she is a senator or governor. U.S. senators nominated for vice president have won nine times and lost eight times. Governors as vice presidential nominees are split, winning twice and losing twice.

But those without gubernatorial or senatorial experience fare poorly. Picking a candidate from the House of Representatives has only been successful two times in seven tries.

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The one candidate without experience as a governor, senator or representative, Sargent Shriver, lost in 1972 as Democrat George McGovern’s ticket partner.

Republicans picked Vance, and their record with U.S. Senate vice presidential nominees is pretty good: two wins (Richard Nixon and Dan Quayle) and one loss (Bob Dole).

Democrats, however, have seven wins with U.S. senators (Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Hubert Humphrey, Lyndon B. Johnson, and Alben Barkley) against seven losses (Tim Kaine, John Edwards, Joe Lieberman, Lloyd Bentsen, Edwin Muskie, Estes Kefauver and John Sparkman).

Republicans are the only ones since World War II who have picked a governor as a running mate. Two (Mike Pence, Spiro Agnew) won, while two (Sarah Palin and Earl Warren) lost.

U.S. House representatives have largely failed for both parties, with the GOP picking two winners (George H. W. Bush and Dick Cheney) and four losers (Paul Ryan, Jack Kemp, Henry Cabot Lodge Jr., and Bill Miller). Democrats picked one (Geraldine Ferraro) and she lost.

It should also be noted that Bush — UN ambassador, CIA director — and Cheney — secretary of defense, CEO of Halliburton — both had extensive experience in other realms between their stints as House members and selections as vice presidential candidates.

Trump has already made his pick. What should Harris do?

It’s a flip of a coin based on the historical record, so long as she doesn’t pick a U.S. House member.

At present, senators and governors top her shortlist, including Harris can choose North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Illinois Gov. J. B. Pritzker, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, California Gov. Gavin Newsom or even Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. Some new names include Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, as CBS reports.

Given that the record shows all things are equal in vice presidential picks, it is probably best to select a running mate from a state that will help you. That would put those candidates from swing states, such as Kelly (Arizona), Shapiro (Pennsylvania), Whitmer (Michigan) and even perhaps Cooper (North Carolina), at the top of the list.

Had Gore picked popular Florida U.S. senator and former Gov. Bob Graham for his VP, he would have very likely won the 2000 election, given Florida’s overriding significance in that race. Taking a running mate from Connecticut in 2000 — Joe Lieberman — made little difference.

Ford might have done better in 1976 with a Texan such as George H. W. Bush instead of a Kansan in Dole, given that Ford lost the Lone Star State to Democrat Jimmy Carter.

For John McCain in 2008, Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge would have been a far better choice than Palin, of then-deep red Alaska. McCain lost the Keystone State (and some Obama-backing moderates).

In a close presidential race, particularly now, vice presidential candidates from swing states may matter more, regardless of prior office experience.

John A. Tures is a professor of political science at LaGrange College in LaGrange, Georgia. His views are his own. He can be reached at jtures@lagrange.edu. His “X” account is JohnTures2.

John McCain's daughter pushes new conspiracy theory about Biden's health

Meghan McCain has a new conspiracy theory about President Joe Biden: he is faking his latest diagnosis of COVID-19.

McCain, the daughter of the late Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and a former co-host of "The View," laid out why she believes this in the latest episode of her "Citizen McCain" podcast, according to The Daily Beast.

“We are very close to Biden stepping down,” she said this week on the podcast. “I don’t even know if at this point I believe President Biden has COVID. I think there is a trust deficit with the American public, certainly with me and the Biden administration’s candidness and transparency regarding Biden’s health. I don’t know if I believe he actually has COVID.”

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She went on to suggest that the COVID diagnosis could in fact be an “egregious” lie at a “level we’ve never seen in politics” that “might just be an excuse for him to step down gracefully.”

It's the latest in a series of attacks she has leveled at him over his mental fitness for office, despite having previously called him “one of the truly decent and compassionate men in all of American politics.”

Biden did ironically say, just hours before testing positive for COVID and canceling his UnidosUS speech in Las Vegas, that a "medical condition" was one of the only things that might make him consider bowing out of his re-election campaign. He is currently recovering at his home in Delaware after reportedly experiencing only minor symptoms and, assuming he doesn't succumb to mounting pressure to step down as some reports indicate he might be, is expected to return to the campaign trail next week.

McCain seized the opportunity on her podcast to go after Republicans too, slamming the GOP convention in Milwaukee over the last several days as "the funeral" of "traditional conservatism" and complaining that former President Donald Trump's newly-minted running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), is too "inexperienced" for the job of V.P.

History shows presidential debate victors often win the battle but lose the war

Donald Trump has to feel pretty good, as he bested — some might say obliterated — a stammering, low-energy President Joe Biden in their first debate of 2024. A CNN poll declared Trump the hands-down winner, 67 percent to 33 percent.

But are those who win that first debate more likely to take the election?

In short: no.

During the television era, history indicates that the winners of first general election presidential debates went on to win the election only five out of 13 times.

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So at a moment when some Democrats are questioning Biden’s fitness for the presidency, and wondering aloud whether Biden should exit the race altogether, this is a bit of bad news for Trump.

Let’s run the numbers:

In 2020, Biden won 60 percent to 28 percent for Trump in the first debate, according to CNN’s poll. Then Biden went on to win the election in November 2020.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton was judged to have won the first debate, according to CNN’s poll that had her winning 62 percent to 27 percent for Trump. But she lost the 2016 election.

In 2012, Mitt Romney won the first debate easily. According to Gallup, the Republican and former Massachusetts governor prevailed 72 percent to 20 percent for President Barack Obama. But it was Obama, the Democrat, who easily won reelection in 2012.

In 2008, Obama took the first debate from Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona, 51 percent to 38 percent in the first debate according to CNN. This served as a good launching point for Obama’s victory in the election later that year.

In 2004, Democratic Sen. John Kerry won the first debate against George W. Bush. Newsweek’s poll revealed that Kerry won 61 percent to 19 percent for Bush. But it was Bush who narrowly won the election.

In 2000, Gallup polling had Vice President Al Gore winning the first debate (48 percent to 41 percent), which may surprise people, as the media criticized Gore’s audible sighs. But Bush won the 2000 election.

In 1996, Democrat Bill Clinton outperformed Republican Sen. Bob Dole, in the first debate (51 percent to 31 percent) according to Gallup polling. And Clinton was reelected in 1996.

In 1992, Reform Party nominee Ross Perot won the first debate 47 percent to 30 percent for then-Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton and 16 percent for President George H. W. Bush, according to Gallup. But Perot finished third in the election, behind Clinton and Bush, and didn’t earn a single electoral vote despite winning about 19 percent of the popular vote.

In 1988, Democrat and Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis was judged the winner of the first debate in two polls, but lost the election, by a wide margin, to Bush.

In 1984, Democrat Walter Mondale handily defeated Republican President Ronald Reagan 54 percent to 36 percent in their first debate. Yet Reagan won 49 of 50 states during the general election — one of the most notable landslide victories in U.S. History.

In 1980, Reagan also won the only debate against Democratic President Jimmy Carter and independent John Anderson, according to surveys from Gallup. Reagan also won the election.

Data from Gallup surveys showed that President Gerald Ford drastically reduced Carter’s big lead in 1976 but lost the election, while John F. Kennedy overtook Richard Nixon in the polls after their first debate in 1960 and ultimately won the ultra-close contest, according to Gallup.

That means that in 13 elections, the first debate winners have won five of these contests (1960, 1980, 1996, 2008, 2020). In the other eight cases, the first debate winners went on to lose at the ballot box (1976, 1984, 1988, 1992, 2000, 2004, 2012, 2016). That’s a 38 percent success rate for winners of the first debate.

No televised debates were conducted in 1964, 1968 or 1972.

Why do winners of the first presidential debate often come up short in the election?

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It could be because the first debate serves as a wake-up call for the first debate loser, as it did for Reagan in 1984, and Obama in 2012; each had to answer questions about their poor debate performance.

It could be that taking the first debate puts pressure on the winner to make a repeat performance.

Or, perhaps, the first debate winner could become overconfident in his or her chances of winning the election.

Whatever the case may be, Trump may find that history is not on his side just because he dominated Biden in the first debate.

A second debate between Trump and Biden is scheduled for Sept. 10.

John A. Tures is a professor of political science at LaGrange College in LaGrange, Georgia. His views are his own. He can be reached at jtures@lagrange.edu. His “X” account is JohnTures2.

How Republican plans will make us sicker

The Republican Party has a knack for keeping America sick.

In 1994, when virtually every other developed country had universal healthcare, Republicans and their medical-industrial complex allies used a flood of disinformation to kill President Bill Clinton’s healthcare reform bill.

For 16 long years after, Republicans blocked structural reform, with predictably grim results. By 2010, 49 million Americans lacked coverage. Medical bills accounted for 62 percent of U.S. bankruptcies (up from 8 percent in 1981). Tens of thousands of Americans a year died from a lack of healthcare coverage.

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Summarizing a 2010 Commonwealth Fund report, science writer Maggie Fox said that “Americans spend twice as much as residents of other developed countries on healthcare, but get lower quality, less efficiency and have the least equitable system.”

Just months earlier, Democrats had overcome a Republican filibuster to pass the Affordable Care Act (ACA), but the law hadn’t taken effect yet.

Several frivolous court challenges and then-Sen. John McCain’s act of political courage later, the ACA has achieved a number of big things. They’ve made us healthier. And they’re worth listing individually:

  • The number of Americans under the age of 26 who receive coverage through their parents’ policies has more than doubled, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
  • Americans aren’t necessarily bound to toxic employers for their healthcare coverage, since they can sign up for the ACA if they leave a job with benefits. This is especially beneficial to the self-employed.
  • The ACA uses rate review to make insurance companies spend at least 80 percent of their budget on direct care, rather than on expenses which have no value to patients—marketing, advertising, profit margins, lavish CEO compensation and the inflated administrative costs that come with privatization and multiple billers.

Closing the health gap

Despite these big steps forward, four decades of Republican obstruction has ensured that the United States still has a long way to go before it catches up to its peers.

Unique among developed countries, the United States still fails to cover tens of millions of its citizens, which contributed to hundreds of thousands of deaths during the COVID pandemic.

Millions with employer-based coverage self-ration their care to avoid exorbitant co-pays and deductibles.

Relative to other developed countries, America still has far more medical bankruptcies, far higher infant mortality rates, far higher maternal mortality rates, and higher avoidable mortality rates.

Our fragmented healthcare system contributes to by far the highest rates of childhood deaths of any industrialized country, and our life expectancy is lower than some developing countries.

Because of GOP hostility to government price regulation (a component of all universal health systems), Americans continue to pay by far the most for healthcare and prescription drugs among our advanced economy peers.

To the extent he has been able — despite senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema and unified Republican opposition — President Joe Biden has ameliorated these problems.

His American Rescue Plan Act increased ACA subsidies for millions, decreased income requirements for ACA eligibility, and lured additional states into Medicaid expansion with increased subsidies. Thanks to Biden, new ACA enrollments hit a record high this year.

The Inflation Reduction Act keeps ACA subsidies in place through 2025. It caps costs for insulin and other drugs covered under Part D of Medicare and will limit out-of-pocket prescription drug expenses to $2,000/year for Medicare beneficiaries in 2025. It also forces prescription drug companies to negotiate the costs of the 10 most expensive drugs (a number that will rise to 20 drugs annually.)

When blocked by Congress, Biden has used executive actions. Biden expanded postpartum Medicaid eligibility and open enrollment periods for the ACA and increased funding for navigators that assist Americans signing up for ACA coverage. He reformed Title X to extend family planning access to women who’d had it stripped away by the Trump Administration. He also fixed the “family glitch,” which kept family members of people with overpriced employer-based coverage from getting coverage through the ACA.

Biden also took a number of steps to shore up the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) and increase funding for the Maternal, Infant, and Early Childhood Home Visiting Program, which provides health benefits for Alaska Native and American Indian families and pays for itself many times over.

Your health is on the ballot

If given another term, and a Democratic Congress, Biden would continue improving the nation’s healthcare system, as reflected in his most recent budget.

Biden would expand care to the uninsured, improve coverage and lower drug costs in the CHIP program, Medicare and Medicaid.

He would try to extend ACA subsidies beyond 2025 and increase ACA subsidies to lower premiums.

He would raise the number of drugs Medicare negotiates to 50 annually, expand the $2,000 annual prescription drug cap to private plans and limit co-pays for generic drugs.

He would try to make Big Pharma pay rebates if the cost of a specific drug goes up more than inflation. His agenda also includes expanded home care services, improved access to mental health care, and increased research in women’s health.

He would continue to work on lowering maternal mortality rates and improving neonatal care. He could revive policies blocked by Congress during his first two years — such as a Medicare buy-in for Americans 50 and older and a national public option, which has lowered patient costs at the state level.

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By contrast, Donald Trump, the former president and presumptive 2024 Republican nominee, shows little interest in healthcare reform. His website is conspicuously light on healthcare policy. He rarely talks of it on the campaign trail.

In a nod to his old-and-white constituency, he promises to take on Big Pharma, but Biden is already doing this and congressional Republicans have actually considered a repeal of the pricing curbs that Biden established.

Trump’s site makes a vague statement about appointing a panel to review childhood illnesses, Washington-speak for kicking the can down the road.

His public statements offer mixed messages on the big issues. Would he try to repeal the Affordable Care Act? Would he protect Medicare, privatize it or cut funding? Would he maintain protections for people with pre-existing conditions or allow them to go without coverage by leading an effort to repeal the ACA, as he has threatened to do?

Given Trump’s prior record — his lack of clarity about future plans, his habit of lying consistently, the 88 felony counts pending against him across four separate criminal court cases — healthcare advocates have no good reason to trust him.

In fact, if Trump serves a second term with Republican majorities in Congress, the GOP would almost certainly make our healthcare system more expensive and less responsive to the average citizen’s needs.

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The recent House Republican Study Committee budget proposal slashes Medicaid, as did the House Republicans’ 2023 budget proposal. These cuts would be devastating to the poor, the disabled, special needs children, and millions of elderly Americans (Medicaid funds over half of America's long-term care.)

The United States, alone among its developed world peers, has 5 million children with no healthcare. GOP plans to gut Medicaid and the CHIP (Children’s Health Insurance Program) could cause millions more to lose coverage.

GOP repeal of the Affordable Care Act — which Republicans have attempted before and Trump and congressional Republicans remain open to — could have catastrophic consequences.

Up to 30 million Americans could lose their coverage, including many of our most vulnerable citizens. Up to 129 million Americans with pre-existing conditions could again be at the mercy of healthcare industry profiteers. Medical debt and bankruptcies could skyrocket. Millions of Americans could lose access to no-cost preventive services.

Women would bear the brunt of this, stuck with co-pays for (or simply foregoing) mammograms, cervical cancer screenings, pregnancy-related services, contraception, and Pap smears. Their children would lose vital pediatric immunizations.

Due to his unholy alliance with extreme-right, self-proclaimed Christians, Trump would likely exhume his policy to cut off funding for Planned Parenthood and other family planning organizations, thereby taking away birth control from millions of cash-strapped women and exacerbating America’s contraceptive desert crisis.

He would probably re-start his “final conscience rule,” which allows healthcare entities to deny reproductive healthcare to women for religious reasons.

His Justice Department would either support or (at best) present no legal challenges to red state abortion restrictions so ambiguously worded that they actually threaten certain forms of birth control.

He would pack the federal courts with anti-abortion judges such as Matthew Kacsmaryk, the Trump appointee who recently ruled to outlaw mifepristone, an FDA-approved medication used to end early-term pregnancies since 2000.

He would hamper fetal tissue research and undermine the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Again.

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In effect, Republicans could inflict the worst of all worlds: big steps backward toward the highly dysfunctional healthcare system we had pre-ACA, with its higher costs, fewer benefits, and more uninsured Americans. They would handcuff groundbreaking health research for American women.

We could expect less healthcare security, more anxiety about keeping our coverage (and our family’s coverage), more rationing due to prohibitive for-profit mark-ups, children not getting basic needs met, low-income disabled and elderly Americans going without and more back-alley abortions.

American lifespans, which already trail other highly developed nations by several years and have significantly regressed since their 2014 peak, will get shorter yet.

The 2024 presidential election will determine if the U.S. continues to gravitate toward the humane and effective healthcare models that exist everywhere else in the developed world or wins a race to the bottom with itself.

Dan Benbow has been an online political features writer since 2003. His work has appeared at Raw Story, the Miami Herald, the New York Daily News, Salon, Truthout and the Progressive. He is currently seeking representation for his first novel and can be reached at benbowauthor@gmail.com or followed @danbenbow on X.

Why Biden doesn’t need to become Obama to defeat Trump

In 2008, Barack Obama defeated the late Sen. John McCain by waging a campaign of “hope and change.” He presented a positive vision for the future. He inspired millions of Americans and won the election by a large margin.

Here in 2024, President Joe Biden, arguably, isn’t seen as the most inspiring figure. He’s likable enough, but people don’t typically get too excited about him. That might seem like a problem for him this year as his approval rating remains quite low and he tries to secure a second term. Even Obama himself wants Biden to be more like Obama, with the Washington Post reporting that the former and current president engaged in an “animated” discussion about the state of Biden’s re-election campaign.

But luckily for Biden, he doesn’t need to channel his inner Barack to defeat Donald for the second time in four years.

Here’s why: Though Biden’s numbers are low and most Americans don’t want a Trump vs. Biden rematch, it’s almost certainly going to be a contest between the two of them, and Trump’s numbers are also quite low. Biden’s current approval rating is 38 percent, and Trump’s is 43 percent.

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“Biden’s numbers would be incredibly troubling if he were running against an open Republican field, because you’d expect the person to come out of that field to be the one that generates the most enthusiasm and to have relatively high numbers,” Andrew Civettini, an associate professor of political science at Knox College, tells Raw Story. “Trump starts off with very low approval, as well, and very high negatives.”

If Biden was facing off against a Republican who wasn’t extremely well known and was starting off with high approval numbers, he’d certainly be in trouble.

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Instead, he’s facing off against a man who is despised by millions of Americans and not particularly liked by many more. Trump’s base of support is passionate but, as a percentage of the electorate, relatively small and unlikely to grow much, if at all. It very well may shrink between now and November, when Trump is likely to go on trial in at least one of the four criminal cases, together containing 91 felony charges, to which he is party. Thus, Biden doesn’t need to be the most inspiring, transformational figure to defeat Trump.

So what should Biden be to the American people as the 81-year-old president seeks a second term?

First, Biden should consistently present a positive, compelling vision for the future. It’ll be easy for Biden to go negative in the coming months, and he should point out the threat Trump represents and the unpopular things Trump intends to do if he’s elected again. He should also go after Trump’s record. But Biden also needs to tell people what he would do if he’s given a second term — the re-emergence of “Middle Class Joe” and his focus on pocketbook and kitchen-table issues such as quality jobs, American manufacturing and better health care is key.

He can also focus on how we’re transforming the energy sector, and in the process creating jobs, to combat climate change. Biden needs to paint a picture of the best possible future we could build together, one that would itself stand in stark contrast to the American dystopia of civic discord, governmental chaos and political revenge and retribution that Trump offers.

Americans are exhausted by politics these days. If it’s all negative and all about the past, people are going to get more exhausted and might tune out. They might not be motivated to get out and vote. Instead of becoming Obama, Biden should simply utilize Obama as a campaign trail surrogate as much as he can.

“When they didn’t use Obama much on the campaign trail three and a half years ago it hurt them a lot. Obama generates enthusiasm. Crowds like him. He’s energetic. He knows how to play a crowd,” Civettini says.

Don’t lose your mind over Biden’s approval rating or where he stands in the polls. When Trump is back in people’s faces as the election ramps up, they’ll remember why they don’t like him and why they didn’t give him a second term. Biden needs to do what he can to avoid making everything negative and show Americans what could be if he’s given a second term and if Trump is denied one.

This is a strange election. What we’ve learned from elections past doesn’t really apply here. Only once has a former president run for a second, non-consecutive term and won — Grover Cleveland in the late 19th century — and Trump is a candidate unlike any other. That’s why it’s reasonable to question if we actually need to be freaking out about Biden’s approval rating or the latest poll.

“The idea that voters want to put somebody back in who lost is I think something that party strategists just never imagined could happen,” Civettini says. “The candidate who lost in the frontrunner. The candidate who lost is under indictment. These are things that are just unprecedented in any modern presidential election.”

So if Biden can simultaneously show Americans the negative, dangerous future Trump represents and the positive, forward-thinking future his administration could represent, then he’ll likely be able to defeat Trump in this election. He doesn’t need to inspire like Obama, but he needs to make sure people don’t tune out because of all of the negativity and rehashing of the past. He must welcome help from his most notable friends. And the balancing act en route to victory should begin now.

Bipartisan support for Mitch McConnell staying in the Senate until death

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Senate has evolved — or devolved, critics contend — into an elder care facility.

Just don’t tell (most) senators.

Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s recent health episodes, coupled with the rapid decline of 90-year-old Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) — she’s now wheeled about the Senate and told by aides how to vote — has reignited the age-old debate over, well, age in today’s increasingly elderly Senate.

While senators’ health ailments are dominating cable shows and social media, the debate has barely penetrated the marble walls of one of the nation’s oldest Senates ever.

That’s by design.

“It is an institution that honors old age. Seniority is everything,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) told Raw Story after voting at the Capitol on Wednesday. “The Senate is also a place where one person on the first day can do some really big things, mostly based on their ability to obstruct, but that's the way it's built. It does reward longevity, and, consequently, you end up with a lot of older members.”

Indeed, the position of Senate president pro tempore — third in line to the presidency — is traditionally reserved for the majority party senator who’s served the longest, continuously. Committee chairpersons are often, if not exclusively, given to a majority party senator with the longest service on a given committee.

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You also end up with a lot of secrets in an already secretive body. There’s a seemingly impenetrable veil of silence at the Capitol when it comes to lawmakers with failing health.

Seemingly, one of the most enduring bipartisan principles in the “World’s Greatest Deliberative Body” seems to be that you let your political friends and foes alike die as they please — even if you find them diminishing right next to you as you consider some of the nation’s most critical decisions and cast consequential votes.

When Senate insiders do talk — staffers, in particular — it’s generally in whispers about the lengths some must go to prop up their aged bosses. And it’s not pretty.

‘Out of respect for colleagues’

Six years ago — or one term, according to Senate time — in her piece, “An old-school pharmacy hand-delivers drugs to Congress,” Erin Mershon of STAT News reported that Capitol Hill pharmacist Mike Kim fills Alzheimer’s prescriptions for at least one member of Congress.

That terrifyingly tantalizing admission is news to freshmen senators — “That's pretty wild. I'm gonna look that up and read it,” Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) told Raw Story — but it’s simply the ways of Washington to senior senators who seem in on the not-so-secret-secret.

“I actually don't want to comment on that out of respect for colleagues,” Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) told Raw Story after exiting a Senate elevator.

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Others shrug off reports of their congressional colleagues being afflicted with debilitating diseases like Alzheimer’s.

“We're a representative body reflective of the country. There's probably a lot of people in the workforce that are engaged in all kinds of different medications, whether they're for Alzheimer's, mental health, whatever. That doesn't surprise me,” Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) told Raw Story on Wednesday while walking next to the underground Senate tram.

Capito serves as a part of McConnell’s leadership team. She was in his office Tuesday night for their regular start of the week meeting.

“He was sharp as ever,” Capito said.

How the ravages of age affect the human body is a congressional drama that’s as old as Congress.

In 1846, former President John Quincy Adams suffered a stroke that left him partially paralyzed. Voters didn’t care. The former U.S. senator from Massachusetts overcame its debilitating effects and was then sent back to Washington, only this time as a member of the House.

That’s where, in 1848, Adams collapsed as he rose in his seat on the House floor only to later die in the Speaker’s Room of the Capitol.

More recently, Sen. Strom Thurmond (R-SC) remained in office until his 100th birthday.

Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) died in office in 2009 at 77.

Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV) died in office in 2010 at 92.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) died in office in 2018 at 81.

Such situations can leave millions of constituents without the active representation of a key, duly elected federal lawmaker — or, in the case of those who die in office, no elected representation at all. Governors work to quickly fill their seat, but they don’t consult voters and often tap one of their political allies, some of whom never seem to leave the seat.

‘Medicine shouldn't be politicized’

These days, the nation’s aged politicians are protected by their aides and most of their colleagues who play senatorially-supportive roles.

But every now and again, a lawmaker breaks Congress’ unofficially-official code of silence.

We saw that rarity this spring when Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) had enough of the congressional veil of silence after his state’s senior stateswoman, Feinstein, told Raw Story, “I’m not announcing anything” — hours after her office had literally announced she wasn’t seeking re-election in 2024.

As Khanna took to social media to call for Feinstein’s resignation, he showed the public what’s common knowledge in Washington: Feinstein stopped making some of her own decisions long ago.

“It’s time for @SenFeinstein to resign. We need to put the country ahead of personal loyalty. While she has had a lifetime of public service, it is obvious she can no longer fulfill her duties,” Khanna wrote. “Not speaking out undermines our credibility as elected representatives of the people.”

Of course, it would be unethical, immoral and idiotic for a doctor to divulge their patient’s diagnosis without consent. Consent, however, is not the problem when Washington physicians go out of their way to politically protect politicians.

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Glowing physical examinations can transform a physician into a politician. Just ask Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-TX). He catapulted himself into the U.S. House Representatives after garnering headlines while serving as former President Donald Trump’s White House physician. Politicized medicine is a disease all its own, at least according to Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY). The Duke-trained ophthalmologist is one of four physicians currently serving in the Senate. He’s openly questioning Dr. Brian Monahan, the attending physician of U.S. Congress, for reporting McConnell’s showing no signs of a seizure or stroke.

“Medicine shouldn't be politicized, and if you're giving advice on, you know, what someone's potential diagnosis is, really, it ought to be based on the facts. And what I can tell you is that having vacant spells of 30 seconds or more where you’re unresponsive, is not a sign or a symptom of a concussion,” Paul told reporters Wednesday.

Bolstered by the Capitol physician’s report, the 81-year-old Senate minority leader brushed aside health questions Wednesday.

“I’m going to finish my term as leader and I’m going to finish my Senate term,” McConnell told the congressional press corps.

Everything’s … fine?

To many members of the Senate, everything’s fine, even if many read more into McConnell’s health episodes than the congressional physician reported.

“I think people need to actually read his book to understand the guy had polio and polio’s coming back and he's having some serious pain issues,” Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) told Raw Story just off the Senate floor. “The first time it happened, he was on the floor at 10 o’clock that night having conversations with us. Sharp as a tack.”

At the start of this Congress, Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) challenged McConnell’s leadership position, but, like most all others, he’s backing McConnell now.

Support McConnell continuing as leader?

“Absolutely,” Scott told reporters at the Capitol. “Mine was all about how you manage the Congress.”

As for Feinstein?

“Every time I’ve talked to her she’s been really nice to me,” Scott told Raw Story.

In your five years serving next to Feinstein, ever had a good policy conversation with her?

“No,” Scott said.

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In a building built on seniority, members of both parties have already gamed out what the eventual exits of Feinstein and McConnell — and their combined 70 years in Washington — mean for their respective party’s rank and file.

But those whispers are kept far away from the cameras, secure within the bipartisan veil of silence.

While Feinstein checked out long ago, McConnell, who isn’t up for re-election until 2026, seems bent on staying put for at least the next three-plus years.

His colleagues seem fine with that, because, most argue, Kentuckians decided to give him a seventh six-year term back in 2020 — even if voters nationally overwhelmingly support congressional term limits and age limits. Many frustrated voters even support cognitive tests for older lawmakers — something Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley has vocally pushed for lawmakers over the age of 75.

In New Hampshire on Tuesday, Haley even suggested 80-year-old President Joe Biden, if elected for a second term, would die before his term was up in 2029.

"There's no way Joe Biden is going to be 86. We all see it. This is about the fact that — you think it it's bad now? This could get so much more worse," Haley said.

Meanwhile, Republican frontrunner Donald Trump would become the oldest person elected president — 78 in November 2024 — were he to win the White House next year.

As for McConnell, many lawmakers just wish he'd get his eyes checked. Because, even as most senators reject proposals like term limits or mental fitness tests, they say Washington’s broken. They just wish those at the top of Washington’s power pyramid could see the ruins they’ve left in their storied wakes.

“It barely functions at all, as far as I can tell,” Cramer of North Dakota told Raw Story. “I think we should get back to some better guardrails.”

Why an unused government fund just grew by $8.3 million — and no, you can't have the money back

An unused government fund intended to pay for presidential elections grew by nearly $8.3 million in April — and the taxpayer-funded money will now sit untouched in a bureaucratic black hole for what could be years or even decades, according to a Raw Story analysis of U.S. Treasury records.

The Presidential Election Campaign Fund has now ballooned to $442.7 million as of April 30, Treasury records show.

A once-popular resource for White House aspirants, the fund hasn’t been used regularly in 15 years — but taxpayers continue checking a $3 check box that they encounter when filing their annual tax returns by the April deadline. Even though less than 4 percent of taxpayers checked the box in recent years, the fund continues to grow by tens of millions of dollars annually.

But as the fund continues to climb toward half a billion dollars, politicians and nonprofits have ideas for how to reform the nation’s obsolete public campaign financing policies or simply reallocate the idled money.

Among them is Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), who told Raw Story the money could be used to help close the nation’s budget gap.

“It's just sitting there … This is just a small effort on many other efforts that we have in trying to tackle this budget,” Ernst said. “You’ve just got to get out there and raise money if you're gonna play, so why do we do this?”

Nonprofits could benefit from the money that’s sitting in the fund, said Rick Cohen, chief communications officer and chief operating officer for the National Council of Nonprofits. While the Council is focusing much of its tax policy efforts on getting the universal charitable deduction back after it expired in 2021, the hundreds of millions of dollars in the Presidential Election Campaign Fund could help numerous charities.

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“Every dollar can make a big difference for people who rely on nonprofits,” Cohen said. “It may seem like a small amount when it comes to the government's budget, but 90% of the sector has less than a $1 million budget every year. You could double the budget of 500 nonprofit organizations and still have more to go around.”

Cohen said it would be great to see a tax form checkoff box for donating to charities like Colorado has that allows taxpayers to donate their return to nonprofits.

“It's very similar to that checkbox for the Presidential Election Fund, where they can check a box and say, ‘I want to donate a portion of my return to this charity,’ which is a great thing,” Cohen said. “It makes it that much simpler, and it's when people are having additional money coming to them.”

President Barack Obama, as a presidential candidate in 2008, declined to take Presidential Election Campaign Fund money, helping to effectively kill the nation's system of publicly financing presidential elections. (Shutterstock)

Why do no candidates want the money?

It wasn’t until the 2012 presidential election that candidates all but stopped using the Presidential Election Campaign Fund. From the 1976 presidential election through the 2004 election, parties’ nominees would accept public funding for the general election.

But in 2008, Democratic nominee Barack Obama broke the trend and opted not to accept general election public funds — with Republicans accusing him of breaking a promise in the process.

Prior to that, some candidates opted not to use the fund for presidential primaries, such as Democrat John Kerry and Republican George W. Bush in 2004, and Bush in 2000.

And neither President Joe Biden, a Democrat, nor any Republican presidential hopefuls, including former President Donald Trump, have any plans to use the fund ahead of Election 2024.

Why did the fund fall out of fashion?

“The basic reason is the system comes with a spending cap, and those amounts are very small by today's presidential election cost standards, so essentially, if you're a strong candidate, if you know you can raise hundreds of millions of dollars, it would not be a rational choice to participate in the program,” said Ian Vandewalker, senior counsel for the Brennan Center for Justice’s elections and government program.

“Candidates can raise more and probably need to raise more to be competitive in a campaign. There's also issues about how early the primaries are now, and when the first disbursement is and whether you run out of primary money before you officially get nominated.”

During the early 2000s, “one could say that the fund was dying,” said Bradley A. Smith, a professor at Capital University Law School who served on the Federal Election Commission from 2000 to 2005, including one year as chairman. “You might say that it was starting to break up during that period at the beginning of the century.”

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Back when candidates were using the fund regularly, having too little money to go around — not too much — was the problem. This necessitated candidates to borrow to keep their campaigns afloat until the fund was replenished after Tax Day, Smith said.

The majority of taxpayers have always chosen not to select the $3 checkoff box, but without any major candidate tapping it recently, the fund has now recovered and grown to its $442.7 million balance — its largest balance ever.

Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein is one of the few presidential candidates to use Presidential Election Campaign Fund money during the past 15 years. Jim Young/Reuters

During the 2012 and 2016 elections, just four candidates — Republican Buddy Roemer, Democrat Martin O’Malley, Green Jill Stein and Libertarian Gary Johnson — together received about $3 million for their primary campaigns, and no one took money for the general election. In 2020, no candidates at all accepted funds for the primaries or the general election, according to FEC records.

Keep the $442 million in place?

Nevertheless, not everyone would like to see the $442 million in available public presidential campaign funding used for some other purpose.

“I think the Democrats realize nobody's using the fund, but it's almost like the dream is still there,” Smith said. “If the fund’s abolished completely, then you’ve got to reestablish the whole thing and pass on new legislation, whereas now, I think there's this hope that maybe it can spring back to life. They can amend it to get more money to the fund.”

Reforming the public campaign financing system to keep it alive is a viable option, some nonprofits argue. The Brennan Center for Justice, a nonpartisan law and policy institute affiliated with New York University School of Law, is pushing for a model of public financing based on small donor contributions, which would be matched by a multiplier. This model has been seen on the state level in places like New York where small donations are matched at a six-to-one ratio.

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Nonprofit government reform group Common Cause supports citizen-funded elections, too, including campaign funding vouchers. Common Cause said it would prefer to see the current presidential public financing system modernized rather than see the fund emptied.

“The disclosure laws and regulations have not kept pace at all with outside spending,” said Stephen Spaulding, vice president of policy and external affairs at Common Cause. “A significant percentage of money comes through ‘dark money’ groups that don't have to disclose where the money is coming from, and so voters are left in the dark, and this sort of secret spending is really dangerous for democracy because it means that you're no longer able to follow the money.”

The Supreme Court’s 2010 ruling in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission significantly contributed to the Presidential Election Campaign Fund’s current state of affairs as an unused resource.

The ruling overturned key campaign finance restrictions and allowed corporations and outside groups, including certain nonprofit organizations, to raise and spend unlimited money to advocate for or against political candidates.

“That's part of what generates this arms race mentality that drives people to look for the biggest donors. It doesn't have to be that way,” Vandewalker said. “We would support reforming the program to update it for the realities of campaigning today, which would mean larger grant amounts, potentially no spending cap and a multiple match system as opposed to what exists today.”

Another supporter of public campaign funding reforms is Ann Ravel, who served as an FEC commissioner from 2013 to 2017, including one year as the commission’s chairwoman.

“The thing about the idea of having the public funding of elections is in part because it's important that people just don't rely on donors or corporations and all of the unbelievable amount of money that's been spent in elections, and instead, hopefully, the idea is that more varied candidates can run and get some money in order to do it,” Ravel told Raw Story.

Restrictions, restrictions

For any 2024 presidential candidate who choses to use the nation’s public campaign matching fund, such as it is today, they’ll face significant headaches.

To access public funds, they’d need to obtain a minimum of 20 contributors in each of at least 20 states, raising at least $5,000 per state. The fund matches the first $250 of individual contributions during the primary campaign.

They’d also be required to limit personal spending on their campaign to $50,000 and limit their overall campaign spending.

Spending limits for the 2024 election haven’t been set yet and likely won’t until later this year or early 2024, according to Myles Martin, a public affairs specialist for the FEC.

“To my knowledge, I don't think anyone has submitted any applications for matching funds yet, and the general election grants that would be available to major party nominees, neither party has used those in recent years,” Martin said.

Changes to the Presidential Election Campaign Fund

Until 2014, the Presidential Election Campaign Fund also provided funding for the Democratic and Republican national conventions. In 2012, each convention received $18,248,300.

“The fact was that there was so much public money being spent on the conventions, and I guess the view then, and it probably is still the case, was that it made those conventions into shows,” Ravel said. “A lot of money was spent to entice people to go and watch and make it be like some big event.”

In 2014, Obama signed legislation that would stop the public funding of conventions. Instead, the money was reallocated to the National Institutes of Health to fund the Gabriella Miller Kids First Research Act, a 10-year initiative funding pediatric research. The last disbursement of the Presidential Election Campaign Fund was to the NIH in 2020 for $736,000 for the Pediatric Research Initiative Fund.

With the funding set to end in 2023, Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-VA) introduced the Gabriella Miller Kids First Research Act 2.0 in January 2021, which passed the House but didn’t pass into law. The Act calls for dedicating $25 million annually to the research initiative from 2023 to 2027.

“Advancing this legislation has been a top priority since I first came to Congress … I’m proud to see our hard work paying off and am eager to continue our efforts to get this bipartisan bill to the President’s desk,” Wexton said in a press release.

Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) is one of the bill’s 110 co-sponsors, and he also introduced in January 2023 the Strengthen the Pediatric Research Initiative Act that calls for eliminating the Presidential Election Campaign Fund altogether and transferring the remaining funds into pediatric research.

"There is nothing of greater importance than finding cures for childhood cancers and other deadly diseases," Cole said in a press release. "Although Congress has made significant strides throughout the last decade to provide the funding to find these lifesaving cures, there is much more work to be done still. I'm proud to introduce the Strengthen the Pediatric Research Initiative Act to redirect this money from political campaigns toward this worthy cause."

Spaulding, of Common Cause, said he was cynical of the motivations behind the Strengthen the Pediatric Research Initiative Act’s call to reallocate the fund.

“No question that we should be investing in health research, in ending cancer, in making advances in science, that's no question. I think it's a bit of a false choice to say that we have to do one or the other. We can do both. We can repair a presidential public financing system, which worked well for decades, and at the same time, continue to invest in science,” Spaulding said.

Smith, a Republican, said the GOP is angling to repeal the system under the guise of funding causes most people support, such as helping children or cancer research.

“It’s really a relatively small amount, and it just always strikes me as gimmicky. I think they probably actually hurt support for repealing it … why not just say we want to repeal this because we don't think it does any good, and we think it's wasting a couple hundred million bucks a year?” Smith said. “To most people, a couple hundred million sounds like a lot of money. To a U.S. senator in Washington, a couple hundred million, that's chump change … But to your average citizen out in Omaha, $200 million still sounds like a lot of money.”

For the 2024 election, where presidential candidates in the primary and general elections are expected to collectively raise billions of dollars, experts agreed that the money is likely to continue sitting in the Presidential Election Campaign Fund, unused for any purpose.

“To take the money almost is like putting a sign up saying, ‘I don't think I can win,’” said Smith, who also serves as chairman of the nonprofit Institute for Free Speech, which opposes many campaign finance regulations. “If you're running against Joe Biden … you know you’ve got to spend a lot of money, a lot more than you're going to get from the matching funds program, and the same thing on the Republican side. If you're going to match Trump or even [Florida Gov. Ron] DeSantis, who's sitting on a huge war chest, not all of which he can convert directly into running, but he's got huge fundraising capabilities, obviously, you have to realize that the matching funds program just probably is not going to give you enough to do it.”

Editor’s note: This article was originally published on April 17, 2023, and has been updated to reflect changes in the Presidential Election Campaign Fund’s cash balance and related political developments.

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