All posts tagged "Recession"

Economists cautioned whether surging oil prices and soaring tariffs amid the ongoing Iran war could tip the United States into recession and what signs could point to an economic downslide, The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.

The Journal polled 50 economists between March 16-18 from different sectors, including Wall Street banks and small consulting firms and universities, for a survey about what they expect the economic fallout might look like amid the military conflict in the Middle East. Experts did identify one important metric that could show potential signs of economic difficulty.

"Economists put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 32%, up modestly from 27% in January," The Journal reported. "Asked how high crude oil would need to climb to tip the recession probability above 50%, economists gave a range of responses: from $90 a barrel to $200, with an average of $138. Asked how long oil prices would need to be at an elevated level, they said from four weeks to 55 weeks, with an average duration of 14 weeks. U.S. oil futures closed at $96.32 a barrel Wednesday, compared with a February average of about $65."...

Even the staunchest MAGA Republicans who vehemently argue in favor of President Donald Trump's tariffs could jump ship in the case of a full-blown recession, a new opinion piece in Salon posited.

Columnist Heather Digby Parton wrote in Monday's column that the weekend "performances" of Trump's economic and trade team members who ran the gamut of cable news interviews no doubt pleased the president because they told him "exactly what he wanted to hear."

Parton continued, "Unfortunately for him, these people sounded to the rest of America like they had just flown in on a spaceship and virtually no one but the most die-hard MAGA cultist or a member of the Trump administration is buying any of that."...

A CNBC survey of business executives revealed an overwhelming majority expected an economic recession as a result of the Trump tariffs, with one calling the whole situation, "disproportionally stupid and illogical."

The business network reported the results of a "CEO flash survey" it conducted among its CNBC Council members including 22 chief executives. According to the report, 69 percent said they expected a recession, with more than half predicting the economic decline would occur this year. Three-quarters of those CEOs described the coming recession as "moderate or mild," the survey showed.

One CEO labeled it "the Trump recession."...

Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) released an "Emergency Video" to his Substack readers Thursday about President Donald Trump's wide-ranging tariffs that he claimed could finally wake up even Trump's most ardent supporters.

"This will show the American people that his ideas and his thoughts on this are insane, and also his thoughts on other things are insane," Kinzinger said. "So, if there is a bright side, it's that this could be the beginning of a large awakening of his base, and generally, the American people."

On Wednesday, after the markets closed, Trump held a "liberation day" celebration in the Rose Garden to announce he was signing a “historic executive order instituting reciprocal tariffs on countries throughout the world.” During his speech, Trump falsely claimed that a lack of tariffs directly led to the Great Depression in 1929....

Ed Yardeni, whom CNBC calls "one of the biggest bulls on Wall Street," claimed President Donald Trump’s extensive tariffs are raising the risk of "stagflation."

Stagflation occurs when there's stagnant economic growth combined with high inflation and high unemployment. A full-blown recession happens when the economy shrinks, as evidenced by two successive quarters of declining gross domestic product.

CNBC reported that Yardeni sent a note to clients Thursday, saying, “It has dawned on Wall Street (and us!) that President Trump’s tariffs aren’t negotiating chips to help the U.S. lower tariffs around the world, promoting free trade. They’re trade barriers, triggering other countries to respond in kind, and they jeopardize U.S. inflation and economic growth."...

Rahm Emanuel, former ambassador to Japan, said on CNN Monday that Trump's disastrous lack of diplomacy with Canada is plunging the U.S. toward a "totally unnecessary" recession, while stoking anti-American sentiment around the world.

The Situation Room's Wolf Blitzer began, "As you know, Canada is going to be getting a new prime minister this week, Mark Carney. He's already talking tough when it comes to fighting back against Trump's tariffs against Canada. Is there any chance that Trump could seize this opportunity to dial back the tension with Canada?"

Emanuel answered that now is the time de-escalate the rift with Canada. He added that to the thing to watch is "both what's happening to the Liberal Party in Canada that's been revived because of Donald Trump and the elections in Greenland. Donald Trump is now the instigation for elections overseas that are anti-American when they used to be pro-American and he's creating a scenario where there's political hay to be made by attacking America or standing up to America."...