Possible Supreme Court shuffle has Trump critics on red alert
There are growing concerns among liberal advocacy groups that Donald Trump is going to be afforded a chance to put two more of his appointees on the Supreme Court, maintaining a 6-3 conservative majority and, more importantly, a 5-4 Trump majority for decades to come.
Trump has already installed three justices — Neil Gorsuch (2017), Brett Kavanaugh (2018) and Amy Coney Barrett (2020). Now, progressive groups are preparing for the distinct possibility that Justices Clarence Thomas, 77, and Samuel Alito, 76, could step down during Trump's term, giving him the opportunity to reshape the court to a radical degree.
Demand Justice, a leading progressive legal advocacy group, is launching a multimillion-dollar preemptive campaign to oppose potential Trump Supreme Court nominees before vacancies even occur. The project will cost $3 million initially, with an additional $15 million allocated if Trump actually nominates replacements for Thomas or Alito.
Josh Orton, president of Demand Justice, invoked the cautionary tale of Ruth Bader Ginsburg to explain the stakes to the New York Times.
"If you think that Trump is willing to leave two of the three justices he thinks are most loyal on the court in their 80s past when he leaves office, you are not paying attention," Orton said. "There is no way that Donald Trump and Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito would ever commit the fundamental miscalculation about power that we saw from Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Barack Obama and we as a movement."
Ginsburg infamously refused to retire during the Obama presidency despite pressure from allies who warned of her mortality. She died during Trump's first term, and was replaced by the far more conservative Amy Coney Barrett — a decision progressives view as the original sin of judicial miscalculation.
Orton's research identifies three categories of potential Trump Supreme Court nominees: conservative judges from lower courts, political allies and elected officials, and what he described as committed Trump loyalists with a "vulgar equivalent for 's---- you'" — essentially ideological warriors willing to do Trump's bidding.
Blocking a Trump Supreme Court nominee would require extraordinary political conditions. If all Senate Democrats opposed a nominee, four Republican senators would need to defect to block confirmation. Orton believes as many as six Republican senators could vote against Trump under the right political conditions, though such unanimity is unlikely.
The political landscape could shift dramatically if Democrats flip at least four Republican-held Senate seats in November, gaining control of the chamber. That outcome would make confirming Trump nominees substantially more difficult — though Trump could still push nominations through before any Democratic administration takes over.
Ezra Levin, co-executive director of Indivisible, a liberal partner organization in the Demand Justice effort, framed the challenge starkly.
"If Trump is handed another Supreme Court vacancy, we must be clear-eyed and ready to make it an uphill battle. This will be a defining political battle, and we intend to make sure the stakes are clear to everyone."