Alex Baumhardt, Oregon Capital Chronicle

Spurred by a change in air pressure over the Pacific Ocean near the equator, El Niño last visited Oregon in the winter of 2018, and has occurred more than 20 times since 1950.

It is both an ocean and atmospheric weather pattern that touches all parts of the West.

The latest system, which recently reached the southern Oregon coast, is predicted to be among the fiercest in years, according to Oregon’s state climatologist, Larry O’Neill. There have only been three El Niños since 1970 that have reached the category of “very strong” as determined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The last one was in 1997.

“Generally the rule of thumb is that El Niño leads to drier, warmer weather,” he said. “In strong years, it’s led to warmer, wetter weather. We don’t know yet how robust those relationships are though.”

The system typically arrives in early September, reaches its peak in the winter and fades toward the spring of the following year.

Andy Bryant, a hydrologist at the National Weather Service, said that it’s likely that due to warmer temperatures, more of the precipitation in the mountains that usually comes down as snow in winter is likely to fall as rain instead. For communities and aquatic species that rely on mountain snowpack to hold onto precipitation that then melts and flows as water in spring, it could mean a much drier spring.

“We’ve had a very dry summer,” he said. “If we have below average snowpack, that could potentially exacerbate drought conditions.”

Effect on ocean

The warmer water that El Niño brings has more volume, likely causing higher tides and the potential for coastal flooding, according to Jack Barth, a physical oceanographer and executive director of the Marine Studies Initiative at Oregon State University. Barth and other scientists expect the sea level off the Oregon coast to rise this winter due to El Niño.

On Tuesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projected some coastal flooding in areas along the West Coast through the winter. On top of that, Oregon’s fearsest coastal storms occur in winter, along with the biggest tides of the year called “King Tides.” El Niño could amplify them. “Houses built too close to a cliff or slope can be undermined with a fair bit of erosion,” Barth said.

This fall and winter are also likely to be trying times for Oregon’s sea life.

About 50 miles off the coast, a mass of warm ocean water that’s been growing for the last six months has been kept from the shore due to “upwelling.” Wind from the north pushes warm surface water off of the Oregon coast, allowing colder water from below to rise and replace it.

In early October, the winds that cause that upwelling will die down, and that warm water off the coast will be able to move onto shore, according to Barth. Ocean temperatures off the coast are expected to rise as much as 15 degrees Fahrenheit. In past years when such heat blobs have formed and moved to shore, coastal ocean temperatures shot up within a day or two.

“Which is remarkable,” Barth said. “Imagine you’re in your house, and it’s 50 degrees or so Farenheit, and then instantly it goes to 70. That’s what these marine organisms are going to feel.”

Vulnerable species that survive will likely move farther North.

“We’re seeing things up here we don’t normally see. We see these pelagic crabs from Baja; tuna we don’t normally see,” he said.

Plankton, the base of the marine food web, are particularly sensitive to heat changes. If plankton suffer, the salmon that eat them suffer and the animals that eat the salmon suffer.

“The effects reverberate for years,” Barth said.

Oregon Capital Chronicle is part of States Newsroom, a network of news bureaus supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Oregon Capital Chronicle maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Lynne Terry for questions: info@oregoncapitalchronicle.com. Follow Oregon Capital Chronicle on Facebook and Twitter.

Oregonians in 57 cities and 26 of the state’s 36 counties will vote in November on banning or postponing psilocybin treatment centers and the production of psilocybin products in their areas.

Psilocybin was first approved by state voters in 2020 with almost 56% of the vote supporting Measure 109. The vote made Oregon the first state in the nation to legalize such treatment. The program will be launched by the Oregon Health Authority in January.

But the measure included a process for cities and counties to back out of legalization, allowing a vote on local bans or a two-year moratorium before joining the rest of the state. They had until Aug. 19 to file paperwork with the Secretary of State’s office to put it on the November ballot.

At least 27 cities have ensured access to psilocybin treatment, including 17 of the state’s most populous cities.

Psilocybin is a hallucinogenic substance found in some mushrooms that has been shown to effectively treat anxiety, depression and post traumatic stress disorder.

A slight majority of residents in Deschutes County, about 53%, voted to approve Measure 109 in 2020, helping to get it passed statewide. But the county’s commissioners recently opted to put the question on the November ballot by a 2-to-1 vote.

Commissioner Phil Chang was the lone dissenter.

At a press conference Tuesday, Chang said he did so because counties have a responsibility to make sure residents can get needed medical care. Counties “are the local public health authorities for their communities,” he said. “I want people in my community to have access to effective treatments.”

Sam Chapman, executive director of the nonprofit Healing Advocacy Fund, which is supporting the rollout of Measure 109, also said at the news conference medical centers offering psilocybin treatments and psilocybin manufacturers will be regulated by the Oregon Health Authority. A draft of the final rules will be ready in September, and will be finalized and adopted by the agency by Dec. 31. The health authority will begin taking applications for treatment centers and providers on Jan. 2.

Chapman said the 27 cities committed to adopting psilocybin therapy represent about 2 million people, so nearly half of Oregon’s population will have access to the treatment in their community. Others, he said, will come for psilocybin therapy from outside the state.

“Oregon will become a destination of sorts for people who don’t want to leave the country for this treatment, which is currently the only option,” he said.

Counties that will vote on banning or postponing psilocybin treatment and production:

Clackamas, Deschutes, Jackson, Marion, Linn, Coos, Malheur, Morrow, Baker, Douglas, Grant, Clatsop, Crook, Gilliam, Harney, Jefferson, Josephine, Klamath, Lake, Polk, Sherman, Tillamook, Umatilla, Union, Wallowa, Wheeler

Cities that will vote on banning or postponing psilocybin treatment and production:

Coos Bay, Pendleton, Roseburg, Winston, Seaside, Prineville, Newberg, Sandy, Nyssa, Vale, Jordan Valley, Philomath, Toledo, St. Helens, Lebanon, La Grande, Cove City, Keizer, McMinnville, Redmond, Newberg, Prineville, Pendleton, Roseburg, Sheridan, Stayton, Silverton, Scotts Mills, Falls City, Cornelius, Metolius, Madras, Culver, Coquille, North Bend, Lakeside, La Pine, Canyonville, Oakland, Glendale, Eagle Point, Dunes City, Junction City, Harrisburg, Millersburg, Tangent, City of Umatilla, Myrtle Creek, Drain, Reedsport, Cascade Locks, Cottage Grove, Brownsville, Lyons, Irrigon, Boardman

Oregon Capital Chronicle is part of States Newsroom, a network of news bureaus supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Oregon Capital Chronicle maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Lynne Terry for questions: info@oregoncapitalchronicle.com. Follow Oregon Capital Chronicle on Facebook and Twitter.