Bryan Sears, Maryland Matters

A new poll by Annapolis-based Gonzales Research & Media Service finds independent voters in Maryland moving away from incumbent Democratic President Joseph Biden.

The poll released Wednesday asked voters to weigh in on head-to-head matches between Biden and two top Republican challengers. The poll also gauged sentiment in a hypothetical primary contest against Gov. Wes Moore (D).

Among the results, pollster Patrick Gonzales said independent voters in Maryland have not yet coalesced behind Biden. The president's showing in Maryland with independent voters portends potential trouble nationally, he said.

"An independent in Maryland is not the same as an independent in Idaho. They're different," said Gonzales. "Independents are more in sync with Democrats in Maryland. Whereas an independent in places like Idaho or West Virginia is more in sync with a Republican.”

The poll of 841 voters registered in Maryland who said they were likely to vote in the 2024 general election was conducted between May 30 and June 6. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points.

In Maryland, Democrats hold the registration advantage over Republicans by a roughly 2-1 margin.

Biden performs as expected in matchups against two top Republicans: former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Against Trump, Biden outpaces the embattled former president 52% to 35% with 13% undecided. In 2020, Biden defeated Trump 65% to 32%.

The partisan split between Democrats and Republicans is about as expected with each candidate garnering more than 75% of the votes in their own party. Among independent voters, Biden leads Trump by a scant 3 points, 44-41.

The Gonzales poll was conducted before Trump was charged in a 37-count federal indictment in Florida. The charges are related to classified documents taken by Trump from the White House after his term ended.

Similarly, Biden outpaces DeSantis 51-37 in a one-on-one general election matchup. Again, Biden and DeSantis are each supported by the vast majority voters in their respective parties.

Among independents, however, DeSantis leads Biden 48-41.

Gonzales stressed that his poll is a snapshot in time and not a prediction of the future.

The veteran pollster said he does not believe the results concerning independents are unique to Maryland.

"Why is Maryland’s unaffiliated voter bloc shying away from the president?" said Gonzales. "President Biden’s campaign team should be concerned with these cautionary signs."

A Gonzales poll released Tuesday hinted at trouble for Biden with independent voters. In that poll, 52% of Marylander said they approved of the job Biden was doing, a 6-point drop from a similar poll in January. That drop, however, is driven by a 9-point drop in support among independent voters in Maryland.

"This follows up on polling where we saw that drop in job approval amongst independents with Biden," said Gonzales. "Now we're seeing what kind of fruit that is bearing."

The poll also asked voters to consider a hypothetical primary matchup between Biden and Moore. The question was only asked to Democratic voters surveyed in the larger poll.

Statewide, 49% of Democrats chose Biden compared to 41% who favored Moore, who has been in office for five months. Another 10% did not answer.

Among white Democrats, Biden held a 28-point lead over Moore. Among Black Democrats, a key constituency for the party, Moore held a 12-point advantage over the incumbent president.

"It cannot be a good sign for President Biden to be trailing amongst such a critical Democratic voting bloc in this, albeit, hypothetical match-up," he said.

Moore was sworn in as the state's first Black governor in January. He is the only Black governor currently in office in the United States.

Moore is seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party. Over the last five months, Moore has used the office to raise his national profile much as his Republican predecessor Gov. Larry Hogan did.

Moore in recent months has expressed public support for Biden.

Gonzales downplayed the Biden-Moore matchup in his poll despite some of the concerning numbers.

"Nobody's going to challenge the incumbent," he said.

In the days before Roy McGrath's fatal encounter with federal agents, the FBI found a way to track the fugitive, according to McGrath's attorney.

McGrath, who was wanted for skipping a federal corruption trial in Baltimore, was on the run for three weeks. He died at a hospital Monday night after a shooting involving the FBI in a commercial parking lot on the outskirts of Knoxville, Tennessee.

The fatal confrontation remains shrouded in questions.

"I don't have a clear indication but at some point the FBI became capable and successful in tracking him," said Joseph Murtha, who was McGrath's defense attorney.

Murtha said agents "recently identified a car (McGrath) purchased for himself."

The attorney said it was the same car — possibly a white SUV shown in published photos with a broken front passenger side window — that was involved in the encounter with agents. The lawyer confirmed that several cell phones in McGrath's possession may have also been used to ultimately pinpoint his location in Farragut, outside Knoxville.

Law enforcement agencies involved in the manhunt are so far releasing few details, citing an ongoing investigation.

"The FBI reviews every shooting incident involving an FBI special agent," FBI Supervisory Special Agent Shayne Buchwald said in an email. "The review will carefully examine the circumstances of the shooting, and collect all relevant evidence from the scene. As the review remains ongoing, I cannot further comment at this time, only to comment Mr. McGrath was transported to the hospital last evening and succumbed to his injuries."

Similarly, a spokesperson for the U.S. Attorney for the District of Maryland declined comment.

McGrath had been on the run since failing to appear for the start of his federal trial on March 13.

McGrath, who spent about three months as chief of staff to former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) in spring 2020, faced eight counts, including wire fraud, theft and falsification of a government document stemming from his steps to secure a $233,648 severance payment from the Maryland Environmental Service just as he was joining Hogan’s staff. The payment was equal to his annual salary as head of the agency.

Prosecutors alleged that McGrath inappropriately sought reimbursement for numerous expenses from the state. He also was charged with failing to claim vacation time while in Florida and on a Mediterranean cruise.

McGrath was also charged in state court. Prosecutors said he illegally recorded private conversations involving senior state officials without their permission during his employment at the Maryland Environmental Service and as chief of staff.

Murtha said the charges will eventually be dropped

McGrath had been on release, living in Florida with his wife Laura Bruner, as he awaited trial.

During his release, Murtha said his client worked as a consultant.

The terms of McGrath’s pretrial release required him to return for trial. He was also required to surrender his passport to the U.S. District Court clerk’s office in Fort Myers, Florida, near his home, in October 2021. The order barred him from acquiring a new passport. The order additionally required his wife to transfer a firearm. McGrath was ordered to undergo “medical or psychiatric treatment as required by Pretrial Services.”

On Jan. 23, the requirement for medical treatment was stricken after a request from McGrath’s attorney.

Murtha said he did not know whether his client had access to a gun at the time of his death.

Murtha became McGrath's attorney in November 2021.

"He was always very professional and engaged," Murtha said of trial preparations with McGrath.

"He always maintained his innocence," said Murtha.

In the months following his indictment, McGrath set out to defend himself in public. He published op-eds in the Baltimore Sun and interviewed with the Washington Post. One of those interviews included the release of a document represented as a memo approved by Hogan, signing off on the severance package.

That memo later became the subject of an additional federal charge for fabricating documents.

"I think he was really trying to get ahead of information coming out at trial," Murtha said.

Murtha, in interviews and in court, said he spoke with McGrath frequently in preparation for trial.

In the days before the March 13 trial date, McGrath was scheduled to be re-arraigned — a technical process to incorporate charges included in the superseding indictment.

Murtha, in a letter to the court, asked for the re-arraignment to be held on March 13. In the letter, he told U.S. District Court Judge Deborah Boardman that his client planned to travel to Baltimore on the Saturday before the trial.

Boardman granted the request and scheduled the brief hearing at 9 a.m. before a magistrate. Jury selection for the trial would begin at 9:30.

McGrath never appeared and Murtha told Boardman his client stopped responding to calls and text messages.

"He's always been responsive," Murtha said at the time to both Boardman and later to reporters.

Murtha told Boardman in court that he spoke to McGrath on Sunday. His client was still in Florida but was expected to fly to Maryland later in the day. He later attributed the change in plans to flight availability.

Boardman issued an arrest warrant.

In an interview, Murtha said it was then that he became concerned about his client's welfare and a potential for self-harm.

McGrath was not found at home during a subsequent welfare check and a search by federal agents.

For much of the three weeks, McGrath was able to elude his trackers — a task force of FBI agents and U.S. Marshals.

The FBI and U.S. Marshals doubled a reward for information leading to McGrath's capture to $20,000. The FBI also released a wanted poster containing a number of possible aliases McGrath might use.

Around the same time, an author using the name Ryan Cooper released two digital publications about McGrath. Emails from the author claimed the first 51-page issue would show how McGrath was railroaded by Hogan.

The book contained no quotes nor citations of any kind and ultimately offered little proof.

Cooper stopped responding to emails and a phone number associated with him appears to be disconnected.

Murtha, for his part, noted the speculation that Cooper and his client were the same person. He declined to answer questions about Cooper citing conversations with McGrath that are protected by attorney-client privilege.

Murtha himself never spoke to Cooper.

"No one has talked to Ryan Cooper (face-to-face)," said Murtha. "No one has Zoomed with him or talked to him in person."

Cooper did not respond to emails requesting comment about McGrath's death.

Cooper released a second publication — 41 pages highlighting McGrath's time leading the environmental service — last week.

Days later, federal agents surrounded the SUV McGrath was driving.

Supervisory Deputy U.S. Marshal Albert Maresca Jr. said “an agent involved shooting” involving McGrath that occurred around 6:30 p.m. Monday is under review.

“During the arrest the subject, Roy McGrath, sustained injury and was transported to the hospital,” Maresca said in a statement.

Later that evening, McGrath succumbed to his injuries.

Gov. Wes Moore (D) is rejecting a Republican Party nominee for the Maryland State Board of Elections, calling him “not an appropriate selection for this important position of public trust.”

William Newton, a frequent candidate for the General Assembly and Congress, was nominated by the Republican State Central Committee to fill a vacancy on the elections board. Moore, in a letter to state Republican Party officials, said Newton “does not meet our internal vetting standards.”

“I am of the opinion that Mr. Newton is not an appropriate selection for this important position of public trust,” Moore wrote in a Feb. 16 letter to Nicole Beus Harris, chair of the Maryland Republican Party. “First, I do not believe that someone who denies the legitimacy of Maryland’s elections should be able to make decisions regarding their administration. Second, Mr. Newton does not meet our internal vetting standards due to his previous conviction for a crime of moral turpitude.”

Neither Newton nor Republican Party officials immediately responded to requests for comment. Moore’s letter did not elaborate on Newton’s alleged conviction.

A search of online court records showed Newton pleaded guilty to misdemeanor embezzlement in Baltimore County Circuit Court in 2019.

In 2017, Newton was one of a number of family caretakers for his mother, Virginia Lee Amato, who was diagnosed with dementia. At the time, Amato’s home was determined to be unfit for human habitation. Newton was accused of using his power of attorney to transfer the home to his girlfriend for $1, according to court records.

The transfer triggered both civil and criminal cases in Baltimore County.

Newton was sentenced to five years probation before judgement. As a condition, he was ordered to repay the Trust of Virginia Lee Amato $16,495 in monthly installments of at least $100.

Moore’s letter to the state party was first reported by The Duckpin. While state central committees recommend candidates to serve on the Board of Elections, governors are not bound to nominate them.

Newton, a Baltimore County resident, has previously run unsuccessfully for the House of Delegates, Congress and most recently the Maryland Senate.

Newton brands himself as a researcher of election issues. In the past he has filed suit challenging the candidacy of Hasan “Jay” Jalisi, a Baltimore County Democrat who spent two terms in the state House. Newton alleged that Jalisi failed to meet the candidacy requirements because he did not live in the district in which he was running. That lawsuit was ultimately dismissed.

In recent years Newton has used social media to raise questions about state elections. In a 2017 post, Newton alleged the vote counts in Baltimore City for the 2016 election were inaccurate. Newton was an unsuccessful candidate for the 7th congressional district seat that year.

In other posts he has raised questions about the state’s voting systems, which he said contain microchips that are manufactured in China.

Editor’s note: This story was updated with more details of William Newton’s court case.