Virginia’s special elections test party strength before 2025 governor’s race

With Republicans poised to take control of Congress and the White House, Tuesday’s special elections in Virginia’s General Assembly mark the first test of sentiment since the Nov. 5 general election. The contests could either reinforce Democratic majorities in the state legislature or signal a shift toward GOP momentum ahead of the state’s high profile 2025 gubernatorial race.

In the 32 House District, Del. Kannan Srinivasan, D-Loudoun is vying to retain the seat for Democrats against Republican Tumay Harding after U.S. Rep.-elect Suhas Subramanyam’s move to Congress created the vacancy. Meanwhile, in the 26th District, Democrat J.J. Singh faces Republican Ram Venkatachalam to fill Srinivasan’s former seat. Both contests have drawn national interest, with Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee investments highlighting their significance.

In the Republican-leaning 10th Senate District, Democrat Jack Trammell takes on GOP nominee Luther Cifers in a race to succeed former state Sen. John McGuire, R-Goochland, who was elected to U.S. Congress. With over 60% of voters in the district backing President-elect Donald Trump and nearly 70% backing Gov. Glenn Youngkin in past elections, Cifers enters as a favorite in the GOP stronghold.

With a $2 billion surplus on the table, Virginia lawmakers are weighing how to allocate the funds and where they might find common ground. Democrats are prioritizing K-12 education funding, while both parties have expressed interest in tax relief for workers as part of the upcoming budget negotiations.

Reproductive rights have emerged as a key issue in the special elections. Democratic candidates Srinivasan and Singh have pledged to defend abortion access, while Republican Venkatachalam has not clarified his position. Harding, his GOP counterpart, noted that most late-term abortions are already prohibited and supports policies to reduce the need for abortions while stating on her website that life “begins at conception.”

In the 10th District, Democrat Trammell backs a proposed constitutional amendment to protect abortion rights, whereas Republican Cifers takes a “no exceptions” stance opposing abortion.

Democratic control of Virginia’s legislature is seen as key to advancing the constitutional amendment. Holding majorities in both chambers would give Democrats a stronger platform to push the measure forward.

While abortion isn’t strictly partisan, it has largely divided Virginia lawmakers along party lines. In the 2023 elections, many Republicans supported Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s proposal to ban most abortions after 15 weeks, while Democrats campaigned on preserving current laws and ultimately enshrining abortion rights in the state’s Constitution.

With Trump returning to the White House later this month, states with broad reproductive rights protections are introducing measures to fortify them in case the incoming Republican administration rolls back federal protections enacted under President Joe Biden. Meanwhile, states with strict bans are advancing fetal personhood bills, abortion pill limits, and other restrictions.

Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned federal protections in 2022, abortion has remained a defining issue in state and national politics.

Virginia Democrats do not support infanticide — but here’s why Trump keeps saying they do

Former president Donald Trump keeps saying that Virginia Democrats support killing babies. Though the false allegation has been fact-checked numerous times, he’s made the claim multiple times this summer.

He said it in the June presidential debate, on a panel at the National Association of Black Journalists conference in July, and more recently during an Aug. 8 press conference at his Mar-A-Lago estate in Florida.

“Based on the [former] governor of Virginia, they’re allowing the death of the baby after it’s born,” Trump said of Democrat Ralph Northam, who was governor from 2018 to 2022.

But infanticide is illegal in all U.S. states. Abortion, which terminates a fetus before it is born, is legal for any reason up until around 26 weeks of gestation in Virginia with limited exceptions for later abortions.

The infanticide allegation stems from a WTOP interview with Northam in which he described palliative care for babies born with severe complications and low survival rates — not abortion.

Palliative care is a type of care to keep dying patients comfortable. It’s typically applied to those dying of old age or terminal illness, but can be used for babies born with severe fetal anomalies.

Clips from Northam’s interview fed into the popular “no limits” or “moment of birth” narrative that abortion opponents have pushed over the years in Virginia and beyond.

“Because [Northam] never provided the full context of the issue, his comments were interpreted that way — and one could see why they were interpreted that way,” said political analyst Bob Holsworth.

How the national allegation took hold in Virginia

Flash back to the winter of 2019. Del. Kathy Tran, D-Fairfax had a bill that would have lowered the three-physician threshold of approval for abortions that occur later in pregnancy.

A sign outside a clinic that provides abortions in Richmond, Va. (Sarah Vogelsong / Virginia Mercury)

Abortions at or after 21 weeks of gestation are rare, making up 1% of abortions nationally. These types of abortions tend to happen later in pregnancy because severe fetal anomalies aren’t usually detected earlier through tests or ultrasound. They may also happen because a life-threatening emergency arises later in pregnancy.

Virginia law then and now also allows for instances where continuing a pregnancy would “irremediably impair” a person’s mental health too. During a committee hearing on Tran’s bill, Del. Todd Gilbert, R-Shenandoah, asked if the bill would allow for an abortion to occur if a woman were already in labor. Tran answered “yes,” though she later said that she misspoke.

Tran told The Washington Post “I should have said: ‘Clearly, no, because infanticide is not allowed in Virginia, and what would have happened in that moment would be a live birth.’ ”

Holsworth thinks Tran “botched the answer.”

“When Northam attempted to rectify the situation, he made it worse.”

Status of abortion rights in Virginia

Abortion remains legal in Virginia and next year Democrats will begin a process to enshrine protections in the state’s constitution. The measure will need to pass two years in a row with a House of Delegates election in between before it could appear on statewide ballots in 2026. From there, voters will give final approval or rejection.

Trump has repeatedly claimed that he thinks the matter should be settled on a state by state basis while Vice President Kamala Harris has made restoring federal protections a platform of her campaign.

Democrats are skeptical if Trump is being truthful in his states’ purview stance.

Project 2025, a policy guideline published by conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation, points to federal mechanisms to further restrict abortion and ban abortion pills nationally. Trump has said he doesn’t know “who is behind” the blueprint, though members of his previous administration authored portions of it. In a recent press conference, he did not rule out having the Food and Drug Administration revoke access to abortion pills.

Northam had explained how later abortions typically occur because of fetal survivability issues. He added that if a person were in active labor, a birth would occur.

“If a mother is in labor, I can tell you exactly what would happen. The infant would be delivered,” he said.

Then he added what has since percolated in messaging from abortion opponents in the years since:

“The infant would be kept comfortable. The infant would be resuscitated if that’s what the mother and the family desired, and then a discussion would ensue between the physicians and the mother.”

Though the allegation has been debunked multiple times over the years, it has taken a mythic and persistent root in political arguments.

Democratic Party of Virginia chairwoman Susan Swecker declined to comment when asked about Trump’s rhetoric of Virginia to national audiences and Republican Party of Virginia chairman Rich Anderson did not respond.

Abortions and palliative care needs will continue

Virginia abortion providers have reported a spike in out-of-state patients. And sometimes patients have had to travel up to Maryland.

Diane Horvath, an OB GYN, said her Maryland-based clinic is seeing more patients in need of later abortions. Her clinic provides the procedure regardless of how early or late in gestation patients are.

As surrounding states have near total bans or restrictions as deep as six weeks, patients are sometimes needing to travel to areas that can legally give them abortions. While some people may not know they are pregnant earlier in gestation, for others it may take time to arrange appointments, leave work, or find childcare.

Then in the cases of fetal anomalies that might inspire someone to seek an abortion, patients may not find out until after their state’s abortion limit. Some testing that reveals anomalies doesn’t occur until after 15 weeks of gestation and can take about two weeks to reveal results.

Horvath said that when parents are faced with severe fetal anomalies sometimes aborting the fetus can be the easier choice, while for others that might be birthing, then burying their child, who has died from natural causes after palliative care.

Horvath said to insinuate infanticide is “willfully misrepresenting an incredibly difficult circumstance that happens to some families when their baby has a lethal diagnosis.”

As abortion continues to be a political talking point, it’s the patient experiences she hopes lawmakers can reflect on.

“When you ban abortion at a certain point in pregnancy, it just pushes people further into pregnancy. Some people still need an abortion, they just have to work a lot harder to get it,” Horvath said. “That takes a lot of time and a lot of resources, and it’s just hard on people — nobody would do this unless they absolutely needed it.”

Virginia Mercury is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Virginia Mercury maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Samantha Willis for questions: info@virginiamercury.com. Follow Virginia Mercury on Facebook and X.

Analysts see excitement and pathways for Kamala Harris 'historic' win in Virginia

Jade Harris feels like some of the “Obama magic” she saw as a child during the 2008 presidential election is happening again with Vice President Kamala Harris’ transformation into the likely Democratic nominee for president this year.

Virginia Democrats rapidly coalesce behind Harris after Biden steps aside

Harris (who has no relation to the vice president) said the days since President Joe Biden announced he was dropping out of his reelection campaign have ushered in renewed excitement for Democrats where she lives in Glasgow.

Living near the bottom of the Shenandoah Valley, Harris is among a sprinkling of Democrats throughout that Republican-leaning part of Virginia. The in-person and online chatter this week about the incoming Democratic presidential nominee, she said, has been exciting and a “seismic shift” from last year.

When Harris was knocking on doors for her own state senate campaign to challenge Sen. Chris Head, R-Botetourt, voters would mention Biden and express concerns about his age ahead of a potential second term.

“[Kamala Harris is] that injection of energy that those voters I was talking to were searching for,” she said. “I’m even hearing things at the grocery store.”

While Southwest and Southside Virginia may not be considered blue bastions the vice president can count on this year in her bid for the White House, Harris said she’s still going to be organizing to stir up excitement in its democratic bases.

Besides potential supporters in Virginia’s rural regions, there’s also opportunity for Kamala Harris with younger voters that Biden had been losing, said Sam Shirazi, a lawyer who monitors political trends. On Friday, a coalition of 17 national youth voter empowerment groups endorsed Harris, saying in a statement that electing her “ is crucial to the success of our organizational missions and to the prosperity of young Americans.”

“With Harris in, she’s giving Democrats the chance to reach back out to some of the voters that Biden may not have been able to really reach anymore,” Shirazi said.

The new developments in the presidential race also seemed to boost prospective Virginia voters’ interest this week.

According to the Virginia Department of Elections, nearly 5,000 people registered to vote between Monday and Tuesday this week just after Biden dropped out — up from around 3,500 new registrations at the same time last week when Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance was announced as President Donald Trump’s running mate.

A spokesperson for the department said individual registrars will still need to review the applications to make them official, and Virginia doesn’t register voters by party affiliation — but the numbers reflect people that might have otherwise sat out this election.

‘Bring it home’: Harris’ prospects with Black Virginia voters

Perhaps one of the vice president’s strongest bases of support in Virginia and nationwide is Black women, who both see themselves in her and view Harris as someone who will fight for them.

Democratic strategist Atima Omara participated on a virtual call Sunday led by an organization called Win With Black Women; roughly 44,000 people participated in the call. It was a good sign, Omara said, and added that she thinks Black-led organizations will help galvanize voters over the next few months.

Black women in particular, she said, are “gonna bring it home.”

And like Jade Harris, Omara is seeing excitement in Democrats that reminds her of Obama’s 2008 campaign. Omara relayed how lots of people during that time opened their homes as bases of operations during canvassing efforts.

“I would not be surprised if we were able to do that again,” she said.

Prior to Biden’s withdrawal announcement, Omara recalled interacting with Democratic donors and volunteers who felt less than enthusiastic about how much their time and efforts could matter. But now, she’s seeing the “wildest energy” that she “hasn’t seen in a very long time in Democratic politics.”

In Virginia specifically, Omara already sees pathways for Harris, whom she suspects will capture swaths of voters in Richmond, portions of Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia — all very diverse places that lean Democratic and contain some of the state’s largest Black voter bases.

Plus suburban women — an often white and sometimes swingy voting demographic – could also boost Harris’ prospects in Virginia.

To accomplish that, Omara said, “white women are going to need to organize other white women.”

Harris’ reproductive health care stance is a selling point

Political analyst Bob Holsworth noted how reproductive rights will continue to be a strong pillar for Harris overall. With women the most affected by access to reproductive care, the matter has been able to transcend partisanship.

It’s been a winning issue for Democrats around the country since the overturn of federal abortion protections and even some Republican-leaning states have supported continued abortion access. As Democrats have worked to restore or protect access to abortions, they’ve also promised to defend related issues like in vitro fertilization and birth control access.

Reproductive rights could be a key platform for Harris in Virginia

Harris’ first campaign advertisement features the Beyoncé song “Freedom,” referencing her position on reproductive health care, in juxtaposition to Trump’s campaign. During his first presidential term, Trump stacked “the federal judiciary with staunch abortion opponents, including three Supreme Court justices who voted in 2022 to overturn” federal abortion protections, according to the June 24 American Civil Liberties Union report.

While Republicans tend to advocate for personal freedom in their platforms, Holsworth said it’s smart for Harris to “reclaim” the word from that party in the context of reproductive rights.

Still, Holsworth noted, Virginia may potentially remain in play for Harris’ opposition.

“A question is how much the Republicans will target Virginia and try to make it a winnable state,” he said, adding that other states like Arizona and Wisconsin have been more distinctly labeled as swing states. “[Virginia’s] not the first-tier battleground, but it could certainly become one.”

Some challenges ahead

In America, “Black women have been fighting oppression for over 400 years,” said Virginia Commonwealth University political science professor Jatia Wrighten. “So it’ll be interesting to see what Kamala Harris can do in about 100 days.”

Harris’ forthcoming candidacy — and the chance for her to become the nation’s first woman president and woman of color president — are cause for excitement and celebration among voters, Wrighten said. However, “We should be humbled by the fact that most western democracies have already had women in positions of power.”

Wrighten suspects Harris’ race and gender will be a challenge even if those aspects allure some people. She points to the “cyclical” nature of racial history in America.

“We had hundreds of years of enslavement, then about twelve years of Reconstruction before the 80 years of Jim Crow [laws that disenfranchised Black Americans],” Wrighten said. “It’s always a step forward and then two steps back.”

Though Obama’s presidency signaled a big achievement for racial parity in politics, it was countered with the rise of the Tea Party movement and other far-right factions of the modern Republican party. Wrighten cautioned that white politicians’ and parental groups’ efforts to remove books from school curriculums and to dilute Black history lessons, and the current pushback against diversity, equity and inclusion policies are the backdrop of the America that Harris is running in now.

Still, Wrighten, Omara and Jade Harris said that the vice president’s gender and track record of championing women’s issues can inspire women of all backgrounds to become or remain politically engaged.

Harris’ prosecutorial background stands to be a strong point for her against Trump among more conservative voters.

As many Republicans typically label most Democrats as “weak on crime,” Harris will be able to point to her experience as San Francisco’s top prosecutor in the early 2000s and her time spent as California’s attorney general. Her approach was to blend criminal justice reform policies with a tough-on-crime stance.

But that blended record could give potential Democratic voters pause, especially Black voters, as Black people are disproportionately represented in the criminal justice system, a stark reflection of America’s historic and systemic racism.

Harris’ background was a bit of a hindrance during her former presidential campaign in 2020, as more localities were electing progressive district attorneys around the country (known as commonwealths’ attorneys here in Virginia).

By the time Biden had tapped Harris as his vice president pick, the murder of Black man George Floyd by a white Minneapolis police officer had prompted national outcry and calls for police reform.

Calls to “defund the police” have been less loud than they were four summers ago and majority-liberal cities are now embracing conservative anti-crime policies, but some things stay the same.

Black Americans are still more likely to have negative or deadly encounters with law enforcement — such as Illinois’ Sonya Massey who was shot by law enforcement when they responded to her 911 call this summer, or Virginia’s Irvo Otieno, who died last year amid a mental health crisis, after being held down on a hospital floor by seven police officers and three hospital workers.

Harris’ prosecutor record was a mark against her in her previous run for president in 2020 when she was up against a crowd of other Democrats vying for the position. She eventually dropped out of the primary.

“I think it’s going to be less of a problem than when she was trying to negotiate the two poles of the Democratic Party,” Holsworth said.

Now that the race will feature a Democrat former prosecutor versus a Republican with 34 criminal convictions, playing up her prosecutor past can help her, he said.

It appears Harris is already leaning into that strategy. At a rally in Wisconsin this week, she alluded to Trump’s criminal convictions and other pending legal woes while hearkening back to her California prosecutor past.

“I took on perpetrators of all kinds, predators who abused women, fraudsters who ripped off consumers, cheaters who broke the rules for their own game,” Harris said at a rally in Wisconsin on Tuesday. “So hear me when I say I know Donald Trump’s type.”

And while his indictments and convictions are a badge of honor to him, — “I was convicted for you,” Trump told his followers at a rally in Chesapeake earlier this summer — they’re a stark contrast to Harris, who shaped her career on the other side of courtrooms.

And Wrighten said a prosecutor’s background can be broadly appealing because of the role they play in general public safety. The desire for safer communities is not bound by demographic or voter type, she stressed, and differs “from the ways Black people have good reason to fear police officers.”

Holsworth anticipates Harris will face sharp criticism from opponents on the economy and U.S.-Mexico border security. However, those areas have always been a vulnerability for Democrats. Harris, who was made a White House point person on the border just as a record number of crossings took place, is already facing attacks from Republican political action committees over both.

And despite Democrats’ and the Biden-Harris administration’s leadership on the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, its effects have been nuanced, as Americans still face the rising costs of gas and groceries each day.

Holsworth said presidents overall get “too much credit and too much blame” for the economy, as they aren’t a sole entity in control of its performance. He said it’s hard to convince some voters otherwise when they’re faced with inflation’s effects daily.

On the border issue, he said Democrats and Harris are going to need to put Republicans on the defensive about it, by highlighting actions such as a GOP committee killing a border deal earlier this year carried by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-KY.

Meanwhile, in the days since Biden dropped out of the race, Democratic officials and operatives have spoken out about the accomplishments of the Biden-Harris administration, like efforts to lower some prescription drug costs, expanding environmental policies and helping steer America out of the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. But Holsworth said if the party wants to win voters, it’s time to keep the focus squarely on Harris now.

“Republicans are going to try to paint her as simply the heir to Biden,” he said. “It’s important for her not to be seen that way.”

Both Black women and Democrats, Omara and Jade Harris are especially excited to vote for the vice president in November’s presidential election. But first, they’ll be voting for her next month as delegates at the Democratic National Convention where Harris will formally become the party’s presidential nominee.

“This is historic,” Harris said.

Virginia Mercury is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Virginia Mercury maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Samantha Willis for questions: info@virginiamercury.com. Follow Virginia Mercury on Facebook and X.

Good-McGuire matchup could head to a recount next month

Final results of the intra-GOP brawl in the 5th district between U.S. Rep. Bob Good and state Sen. John McGuire might be a ways off.

With McGuire’s lead of about 300 votes and yet-to-be received mail-in ballots, the race hasn’t been called in any candidates’ favor just yet. A busy week of work lies ahead for the Virginia Department of Elections to count votes and for the state’s Board of Elections to certify results on July 2. From there, the Good-McGuire matchup could be headed for a recount.

Virginia law allows for candidates to request a recount if the margins are less than 1%. Such was the case last fall when Kimberly Pope Adams challenged Del. Kim Taylor, R-Dinwiddie, to represent the 82nd district in Virginia’s House of Delegates. After ostensibly losing by 78 votes, the recount confirmed that Taylor had topped Adams by 53 votes.

As of Thursday, Good’s campaign did not respond to an inquiry into whether he is considering a recount, but he noted optimism in a social media post on Wednesday.

“This race remains too close to call. We are in a period where the law provides a process for evaluating the accuracy of all the vote totals from election day to ensure everyone can have full confidence in the certified results,” he wrote. “Provisional ballots and mail-in ballots are also still to be counted. We are asking for full transparency from the officials involved and patience from the people of the 5th District over the coming weeks as the certification of results is completed. We believe we can still prevail.”

Indeed, the Department of Elections will receive mail-in ballots by noon Friday, as long as they have been postmarked on or before election day. The department will also review and verify provisional ballots, which are typically used when someone forgot identification while voting or if someone is registering on the same day that they’re voting.

After all the various ballots are counted, the state board of elections will certify election results on July 2. Once completed, Good would have 10 days to file a petition for a recount if he meets the less than 1% threshold.

While the 5th Congressional District is reliably Republican-leaning, the primary matchup between Good and McGuire was hotly contested — at times drawing national attention. More locally, it represented the lawmakers’ different factions and styles. Good hails from Campbell County where he served on its board of supervisors and McGuire has represented the Goochland area in the state legislature for several years.

Good has previously been insulated by a convention nominating process with tuned-in party activists while his challenge from McGuire is the first time he’s defended his seat in a district-wide primary.

But former President Donald Trump loomed large in the Virginia race. Aside from the various high-profile congresspeople who stumped for both men and former Trump strategist Steve Bannon rallying with Good — Trump backed McGuire.

Though Good has been a longtime fan of the once-and-possibly-future president, it’s his brief endorsement of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis last summer before he dropped out of the presidential race that has haunted Good. He backed DeSantis shortly after indictments were levied against Trump for cases that are still playing out in court. When DeSantis dropped out of the presidential race, Good supported Trump again.

McGuire’s campaign went on to label Good a “Never Trumper.”

“By definition, you can’t be a ‘Never Something’ that you have documented evidence that you currently are (a supporter of),” Good said at a campaign event this year.

U.S. Rep. Bob Good, R-Va, has been sent a cease and desist letter from former President Donald Trump for including his name on signs, despite his endorsement for Good’s opponent John McGuire.

But Trump didn’t forget the months Good boosted his former opponent and fealty to Trump emerged as a key issue between the candidates leading up to the primary.

“John McGuire has my complete and total endorsement,” Trump said in a tele-rally for McGuire ahead of the election. “I want that to be understood, because Bob Good’s going around saying we’re friends. I mean, he was fine the last six months, but before that, he was a basic disaster.”

While Trump loyalty was a litmus test that attracted national attention, congressional races are still somewhat local in nature.

“If there’s one thing I guess we can take away is that a Trump endorsement alone — even in one of our most conservative districts — does not necessarily guarantee an outcome,” Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Warner said during a press call on Thursday.

Whoever wins will face Democrat nominee Gloria Tinsley Witt in November’s general election. A Republican-leaning district, voters have historically favored GOP candidates, though Democrat Tom Periello represented the district from 2009 to 2011.

In the meantime, McGuire believes he’s likely won. On election night, he called it an “honor” to be the Republican nominee and echoed his stance on X this week.

“There are still a few votes left to count,” he wrote. “But it’s clear that all paths end with a victory.”

Virginia Mercury is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Virginia Mercury maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Samantha Willis for questions: info@virginiamercury.com. Follow Virginia Mercury on Facebook and X.