Christine Zhu, NC Newsline

A new Meredith College Poll released Friday contains more bad news for North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s already struggling gubernatorial campaign. The poll found CNN’s recent report that he made inflammatory and offensive comments on a porn website prior to the start of his political career caused an immediate drop in Robinson’s support.

The CNN story broke Sept. 19 — right in the midst of the Sept. 17-20 time period in which Meredith was contacting voters. Robinson has said the CNN report is untrue.

The Meredith pollsters reported an electoral gap between the Democratic candidate, Attorney General Josh Stein, and Robinson at about eight points, 50-42 percent, during the first two days of data collection. After the story broke, however, the gap grew to 13 percent, with Stein holding 50-37 percent lead.

All told, the survey found Stein with a double-digit lead over Robinson, 50-40 percent, with the CNN story deterring supporters from Robinson without adding measurably to Stein. There was a sample size of 802 North Carolina likely voters and a confidence interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

“The CNN story clearly had an impact on voter perceptions, but Robinson’s campaign was already struggling against the Stein campaign,” Meredith Poll director David McLennan said in a statement.

Robinson continues to enjoy support among conservative, rural, and older voters, but not from other populations.

McLennan said he suspected the actual margin between the candidates in November would be smaller than the current polling average.

“This is not because the polls are wrong, but that some Republican or Republican-leaning voters simply won’t be able to vote for a Democrat,” he said.

The poll also further confirmed North Carolina’s status as a battleground state in the presidential election, with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump tied at 48 percent each.

Two percent of respondents said they were undecided, and another two percent said they would support third-party candidates.

This margin could be significant. In 2020, Trump won North Carolina by about 75,000 votes out of about 5.5 million votes cast, or 1.3 percent.

McLennan predicts the remainder of the campaign will be over unaffiliated voters in the suburbs. Harris currently has a small lead among suburban voters, but a small shift could drastically change the tight election’s outcome.

A victory in the electoral college hinges on North Carolina and the other six swing states. Both parties are targeting the state, with the candidates at the top of the ticket and their surrogates making a steady parade of visits.

“The Trump campaign will continue to pour resources into the state,” McLennan said. “If Harris is able to squeak by and win North Carolina, her chances of winning the presidency are greatly enhanced.”

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Attorney General Josh Stein is up 14 percent over Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson in the North Carolina gubernatorial contest, according to the latest Elon Poll.

Out of the survey’s respondents, 49 percent said they’d vote for the Democratic nominee, while only 35 percent said they’d vote for the Republican candidate. Nine percent of respondents said they were undecided.

Released Tuesday, Elon University conducted the online survey between Sept. 4 and 13 with a sample size of 800 North Carolina registered voters. It’s unclear how last week’s CNN story, revealing lewd and offensive online posts made by a user identified as Robinson, will affect future polls.

It’s the same margin as a survey released last month, in which High Point University/Survey USA found a 14 percent gap between Stein and Robinson. That poll found 18 percent of respondents undecided for the gubernatorial race.

The new Elon poll found the presidential race too close to call. Vice President Kamala Harris was favored by 46 percent of respondents, compared with 45 percent for former President Donald Trump. Four percent of respondents said they were undecided for the top of the ticket.

“In the big picture, what happens over the next six weeks in North Carolina could determine who leads the United States for the next four years,” Elon Poll director Jason Husser said in a statement. “In the small picture in which, accounting for rounding, Harris and Trump are less than 1 point apart and few undecided likely voters remain, the race down the home stretch for North Carolina’s 16 electoral college votes is now one over inches not yards.”

It’s the second of three polls planned by Elon leading up to the fall 2024 election. The polling occurred during a period with the presidential debate on Sept. 10.

There is a margin of error of plus or minus 3.74 percentage points.

NC Newsline is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. NC Newsline maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Rob Schofield for questions: info@ncnewsline.com. Follow NC Newsline on Facebook and X.

In the month since President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have made a combined four campaign stops to North Carolina.

Both candidates have focused their visits on the seven battleground states that are crucial for the path to the White House: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Of those seven states, North Carolina was the only one Trump won in 2020 — and he did so by a narrow margin of 1.3 percent.

Since Biden’s withdrawal on July 21, Trump has stumped in Charlotte on July 24, Asheville on Aug. 14, and Asheboro on Aug. 21.

It’s a sign that the Republican Party is more concerned about winning North Carolina with Biden out of the race. Trump had visited the Tar Heel State only twice earlier this year, in March and May — an April rally in Wilmington was canceled because of weather.

The Trump campaign did not directly address a request for comment on the increased focus in North Carolina.

Harris has made just one trip to North Carolina since officially entering the race, an invite-only event in Raleigh on Aug. 16 where she unveiled her economic agenda. But it marked her eighth visit to the state this year, including two that took place in the weeks preceding Biden's withdrawal — in Greensboro on July 11 and Fayetteville on July 18.

A scheduled Aug. 8 event in Raleigh that was to include with running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as part of a swing state tour was canceled because of Tropical Storm Debby, as were stops in Raleigh and Oakboro for Republican vice presidential nominee U.S. Sen. JD Vance.

Recent polls show a surge toward Democratic candidates with Harris leading or tied in swing states and Attorney General Josh Stein up by 14 percentage points over Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson in the North Carolina gubernatorial race. Experts say the surge for Harris has put some states that had been thought to be out of reach for Democrats back into play.

Last week, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper predicted a strong turnout in November from voters who he said would be motivated to prevent “extreme” right-wing candidates from winning office.

“I think there’s going to be a rising up that will end up helping Vice President Harris in this race, from some people who may not have gone to the polls even in a presidential year,” because these races are so important,” he said at a Q&A event at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

He specifically referred to Robinson, U.S. Rep. Dan Bishop, and Michele Morrow, the Republican nominees for governor, attorney general, and superintendent, respectively.

Dory MacMillan, North Carolina communications director for the Harris-Walz campaign, said Trump is “scrambling” in the Tar Heel State.

“While Trump barely has any organization and shares a ballot with MAGA extremists like Mark Robinson, we have built a campaign to win close races,” MacMillan said.

The Harris-Walz ticket recently unveiled digital billboards in the state following Harris’ remarks at the Democratic National Convention.

As for the other battleground states, candidates at the top of the ticket have made five stops to Arizona, four each to Nevada and Michigan, and three to Georgia since Biden dropped out. Additional events in Georgia by Harris, Walz, and Vance were canceled due to Tropical Storm Debby.

The nominees have made six campaign stops in Wisconsin since Biden’s withdrawal, subsequent to the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.

Pennsylvania, with the most electoral votes out of the swing states at 19, is clearly a top priority for both campaigns. Harris announced Walz as her running mate at a rally in Philadelphia on Aug. 6 before the pair kicked off a tour of the swing states and Vance has campaigned in the commonwealth’s largest city twice since joining the ticket, on Aug. 6 and Aug. 19.

All told, Pennsylvania has received a total of eight campaign visits from the top of the Democratic and Republican tickets since July 21.

Harris and Trump are set to return to the City of Brotherly Love on Sept. 10 for a debate airing on ABC — although the campaigns have reportedly hit an impasse over whether the candidates’ microphones will be muted when it’s not their time to speak.

The upcoming week features more events in swing states. Trump and Vance are appearing separately in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, while the Harris-Walz ticket embarks on a bus tour of southern Georgia.

NC Newsline is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. NC Newsline maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Rob Schofield for questions: info@ncnewsline.com. Follow NC Newsline on Facebook and X.

North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper thinks down-ballot races will help Vice President Kamala Harris win the Tar Heel State, he said at the Democratic National Convention on Monday.

Speaking to POLITICO journalist Ryan Lizza at a Q&A event, Cooper predicted strong voter turnout to prevent “extreme” right wing candidates from winning office.

“I think there’s going to be a rising up that will end up helping Vice President Harris in this race, from some people who may not have gone to the polls even in a presidential year, because these races are so important,” he said.

Cooper specifically referred to extreme views of the Republican nominees for North Carolina governor, attorney general, and superintendent.

The party’s contenders for those seats are Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, U.S. Rep. Dan Bishop, and Michele Morrow, respectively.

Predicting a swing-state victory for Harris

North Carolina was the closest loss for President Joe Biden in 2020. Former President Donald Trump won the state by only 1.3 percent.

“I have a 2008 feeling about North Carolina, and we know what that means, because that’s the last time North Carolina voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in Barack Obama,” Cooper said.

He made a similar statement when introducing Harris at a campaign stop in Raleigh last Friday.

After Harris entered the presidential race, political strategists floated Cooper as a potential running mate. He withdrew his name from contention a week later.

“I just knew Tim Walz was out there,” Cooper said. “He is a smart, dedicated leader, straightforward guy. Everybody likes to be around him.”

Reaching the end of his term as governor, Cooper has yet to reveal what’s next for him.

Some political observers think he’ll make a bid for U.S. Senate in 2026. Others think he’ll take a role in the Harris administration.

He declined to say he’ll run for president in 2028, telling Lizza he thinks Harris will be running for reelection that year.

“After I finish my term and assess the situation, see where I might be needed, then I’ll make the decision at that time,” he said. “I think everything is on the table.”

Editor’s note: NC Newsline reporter Christine Zhu previously interned at POLITICO on the breaking news desk.

NC Newsline is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. NC Newsline maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Rob Schofield for questions: info@ncnewsline.com. Follow NC Newsline on Facebook and X.