Trump's cuts to Medicaid could worsen America's rural mental health crisis

Across the nation, Medicaid is the single largest payer for mental health care, and in rural America, residents disproportionately rely on the public insurance program.

But Medicaid cuts in the massive tax and spending bill signed into law earlier this month will worsen mental health disparities in those communities, experts say, as patients lose coverage and rural health centers are unable to remain open amid a loss of funds.

“The context to begin with is, even with no Medicaid cuts, the access to mental health services in rural communities is spotty at best, just very spotty at best — and in many communities, there’s literally no care,” said Ron Manderscheid, former executive director of the National Association of County Behavioral Health and Developmental Disability Directors.

Cuts over the next 10 years could force low-income rural families to pay for mental health care out of pocket on top of driving farther for care, experts say. Many will simply forgo care for depression, bipolar disorder and other illnesses that need consistent treatment.

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“Not only do you have very few services available, but you don’t have the resources to pay for the services,” Manderscheid said. “That makes the problem even worse.”

Rural communities are already at higher risk of suicide, with rates almost doubling over the past two decades. Already, rural communities are grappling with a shortage in mental health professionals, making them more vulnerable to losses compared with more urban areas, experts say.

Paul Mackie, assistant director of the Center for Rural Behavioral Health at Minnesota State University, Mankato, studies rural mental health workforce shortages.

“If it [coverage] goes away, what would then be the person’s next option if they already don’t have the resources?” said Mackie, who grew up on a rural Michigan dairy farm. “You can have a rural psychologist or a rural clinical social worker working under a shingle, literally alone.”

Small rural hospitals often provide critical behavioral health care access, he said. One analysis found the cuts next year would leave 380 rural hospitals at risk of shutting down.

States such as Mackie’s Minnesota, which expanded Medicaid eligibility under the 2010 Affordable Care Act, would suffer significant slashes in federal matches as a result of President Donald Trump’s signature legislation. The law, which includes tax cuts that disproportionately benefit the wealthy, cuts the federal government’s 90% matching rate for enrollees covered under expansion to anywhere from 50% to 74%.

States will have to redetermine eligibility twice a year on millions enrolled under Medicaid expansion. Some Medicaid recipients also will have to prove work history. The new law creates work requirement exceptions for those with severe medical conditions — including mental disorders and substance use — but experts say proving those conditions may be convoluted. The exact qualifications and diagnoses for the exceptions haven’t been spelled out, according to a report by KFF, a health policy research organization.

Not only do you have very few services available, but you don't have the resources to pay for the services. That makes the problem even worse.

– Ron Manderscheid, former executive director of the National Association of County Behavioral Health and Developmental Disability Directors

“You can’t work when your mental illness is not treated,” said Dr. Heidi Alvey, an emergency and critical care medicine physician in Indiana. “It’s so counter to the reality of the situation.”

Alvey worked for seven years at Baylor Scott & White Health’s hospital in Temple, Texas. As nearby rural critical access hospitals and other mental health centers shut down, the hospital became the only access point for people hours away, she said.

“People who just had absolutely no access to care were coming hours in to see us,” she said. Many had serious, untreated mental health conditions, she said, and had to wait days or weeks in the emergency department until a care facility had an open bed.

She’s concerned that Medicaid cuts will only make those problems worse.

Jamie Freeny, director of the Center for School Behavioral Health at advocacy group Mental Health America of Greater Houston, worries for the rural families her center serves. The organization works with school districts across the state, including those in rural communities. Nearly 40% of the state’s more than 1,200 school districts are classified as rural.

She remembers one child whose family had to drive to another county for behavioral health. The family lost coverage during the Medicaid unwinding, as pandemic provisions for automatic re-reenrollment expired. The child stopped taking mental health medication and ended up dropping out of school.

“The child wasn’t getting the medicine that they needed, because their family couldn’t afford it,” Freeny said. “The catalyst for that was a lack of Medicaid. That’s just one family.

“Now, you’re multiplying that.”

Family medicine physician Dr. Ian Bennett sees Medicaid patients at the Vallejo Family Health Services Center of Solano County in California’s Bay Area. The community health clinic serves patients from across the area’s rural farm communities and combines primary care with mental health care services, Bennett said.

“When our patients lose Medicaid, which we expect that they will, then we’ll have to continue to take them, and that will be quite a strain on the finances of that system,” Bennett said. The center could even close, he said.

“The folks who are having the most difficulty managing their lives — and that’s made worse by having depression or substance use disorder — are going to be the folks most likely to drop off,” said Bennett, a University of Washington mental health services researcher. “The impacts down the road are clearly going to be much worse for society as we have less people able to function.”

The psychiatric care landscape across Michigan’s rural western lower peninsula is already scarce, said Joseph “Chip” Johnston. He’s the executive director of the Centra Wellness Network, a publicly funded community mental health care provider for Manistee and Benzie counties. The network serves Medicaid and uninsured patients from high-poverty communities.

“I used to have psychiatric units close by as an adjunct to my service,” he said. “And they’ve all closed. So, now the closest [psychiatric bed] for a child, for example, is at least two hours away.”

Those facilities are also expensive. A one-night stay in an inpatient psychiatric facility can be anywhere from $1,000 to $1,500 a night, he said.

Stateline reporter Nada Hassanein can be reached at nhassanein@stateline.org.

This story was originally published by Stateline, which is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Stateline maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Scott S. Greenberger for questions: info@stateline.org.

Iowa Capital Dispatch is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Iowa Capital Dispatch maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Kathie Obradovich for questions: info@iowacapitaldispatch.com.

Officials raise alarm over spreading mosquito-borne ‘triple E’ virus

Mosquito-borne illnesses are a growing concern in Northeastern states, with health officials monitoring cases and advising residents to avoid outdoor activities near standing water and other environments prone to mosquito spread.

Of particular concern is eastern equine encephalitis, a rare disease that can lead to serious and fatal illness, caused by mosquitoes carrying the virus.

Known as EEE or “triple E,” the virus can cause disease in humans and animals such as horses and birds. It doesn’t spread from human to human, but is transmitted through the bite of an infected mosquito.

While most people don’t develop symptoms or serious illness, 1 in 3 people who become seriously ill from the virus die, and about half of those who recover from severe cases will still experience long-term physical and cognitive effects, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Symptoms can include fever, headache, vomiting and drowsiness. Encephalitis is a rare and serious complication in which the infection causes inflammation in the brain.

Eight states — Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Rhode Island, Vermont and Wisconsin — have reported human cases of the virus this year, for a total of 16 cases, according to the latest CDC data. Other states have seen cases in animals only. In Maine this year, triple E was found in two emus and one wild bird.

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In August, Massachusetts officials said they would begin spraying for mosquitoes in two counties after a man in his 80s contracted the virus, four years after the state last saw an outbreak that led to 17 confirmed cases and seven deaths.

Also in August, New Hampshire confirmed its first EEE death this year; it was the first infection the state had seen in a decade, according to state health officials. So far this year, the state has confirmed five total cases in humans, and the disease has been detected in one horse and seven mosquito batches. The state last saw infections in 2014, when three people were infected and two of them died.

Preventive steps

In recent weeks, New York confirmed its first case and death since 2015. The death in Ulster County, about 100 miles north of New York City, prompted Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul to issue a declaration of imminent threat to public health, and to provide state resources to local health agencies to take preventive action, including mosquito spraying.

The state also is making insect repellent available at state parks and campgrounds; posting signs to raise awareness of EEE; consulting with local health officials about limiting park hours and camping availability during dawn and dusk, the hours of peak mosquito activity; and using social media to educate New Yorkers on how to avoid mosquito bites.

State officials said the person who died in Ulster County was an older adult, but wouldn’t share details as they investigate factors around the case.

Bryon Backenson, epidemiologist and director of the New York State Department of Health’s Bureau of Communicable Disease Control, said about a dozen counties throughout the state take part in mosquito surveillance, but rural Ulster County wasn’t one of them.

While the virus doesn’t spread from horses to humans, researchers keep track of EEE cases in horses to determine how prevalent the virus is in a particular area.

Horses, in many ways, can act as sentinels for us. We can oftentimes use horses as an indication that triple E may be in a particular area at a particular time.

– Bryon Backenson, epidemiologist and director of the New York State Department of Health’s Bureau of Communicable Disease Control

This year, there were 20 cases of EEE reported in horses across about a dozen New York counties. The state has never had so many cases, nor in so many counties, in a single year, Backenson said.

“Horses, in many ways, can act as sentinels for us,” Backenson said. “We can oftentimes use horses as an indication that triple E may be in a particular area at a particular time. If a horse tests positive, we know that there are mammal-biting mosquitoes that are out there and active.”

Ulster County did have a horse case that preceded the human case, but that horse wasn’t in close proximity to where the individual lived, Backenson noted.

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Philip Armstrong, chief scientist at the Center for Vector Biology & Zoonotic Diseases at the Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station, said while his state hasn’t seen cases, the regional clusters are cause for vigilance.

“This is definitely one of the more active years,” he said. “I would say, about every four or five years, we see these sort of regional outbreaks that occur.”

Armstrong said his team is still collecting and testing mosquitoes.

“So far, we are lucky in Connecticut in that we have not had a human case,” he said. “But sometimes these things come out of the woodwork later in the season — you just don’t know. I’m not ready to declare victory yet.”

Climate change’s impact

There is no human vaccine or medicine for triple E. Experts say residents can protect themselves by using insect repellent and wearing long sleeves and pants when going outside; avoiding the outdoors at dusk and dawn when mosquitoes are most active or taking extra precautions when outside at those times; and draining sources of standing water, such as bird baths and wheelbarrows, a prime environment for mosquito egg-laying.

Dr. Erin Staples, a physician and medical epidemiologist with the CDC’s Division of Vector-Borne Diseases in Fort Collins, Colorado, told Stateline the U.S. typically sees an average of seven cases annually. In 2019, the nation saw 38 cases — the highest number of cases ever reported in a year.

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Climate change can increase risk of vector-borne diseases, including those from mosquitoes, as increased rainfall and warmer temperatures create favorable conditions that can boost their populations.

While it’s not unusual to see sporadic infections of triple E or West Nile virus from year to year, Staples said, changes in bird and mosquito populations and weather patterns can affect the number of cases.

“Climate is one of many factors that can impact vector-borne diseases. Changes in climate lead to changes in the environment, which can change where and how often vector-borne diseases, like EEE and West Nile, occur,” Staples wrote in an email, noting that flooding can also change where cases are seen.

Sen Pei, an assistant professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, said along with rising temperatures that can cause expansion of mosquito habitats, climate change-related disasters such as hurricanes can alter how and where people live. Officials should monitor for vector-borne diseases after disasters.

“It’s a systematic impact. Vector-borne disease is such a complicated ecosystem,” he said.

Stateline is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Stateline maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Scott S. Greenberger for questions: info@stateline.org. Follow Stateline on Facebook and X.

More women are seeking sterilizations post-Dobbs: experts

In the months after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the constitutional right to an abortion, there was a spike in the number of women seeking sterilizations to prevent pregnancy, a recent study shows.

Researchers saw a 3% increase in tubal sterilizations per month between July and December 2022 in states with abortion bans, according to the study published in September in JAMA, a journal from the American Medical Association. The Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade in June 2022.

The study looked at the commercial health insurance claim records of 1.4 million people from 15 states with abortion bans (Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming). The study also examined the records of about 1.5 million people living in states with some abortion restrictions and 1.8 million in states where abortion remains legal. The researchers excluded 14 states that didn’t have records available for 2022.

“It’s probably an indication of women [who] wanted to reduce uncertainty and protect themselves,” said lead author Xiao Xu, an associate professor of reproductive sciences at Columbia University. In the first month after the ruling, sterilizations saw a one-time increase across all states included in the study, Xu and her team found. Her team also found continued increases in states that limited abortion to a certain gestational age, but those were not statistically significant.

The researchers compared records for three groups: States with a total or near-total ban on abortion, including states where bans were temporarily blocked; states where laws explicitly recognized abortion rights; and limited states, where abortion was legal up to a certain gestational age.

While the study captures only the early months following the Dobbs ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade, experts say it’s part of an increasing body of evidence that shows a growing urgency for sterilization procedures amid more limited access to abortions, reproductive health care and contraception. Other studies have shown increases in tubal sterilization (commonly known as “getting your tubes tied”) and vasectomy requests and procedures post-Dobbs.

Women are able to foresee the consequences of carrying an unwanted pregnancy to term.

– Diana Greene Foster, University of California, San Francisco researcher

Diana Greene Foster, a professor and research director in reproductive health at the University of California, San Francisco, said the results are not surprising, given the negative repercussions for women who seek to end their pregnancies but are not allowed to do so.

Foster led the landmark Turnaway Study, which for a decade followed women who received abortions and those who were denied abortions. It found that women forced to carry a pregnancy to term experienced financial hardship, health and delivery complications, and were more likely to raise the child alone.

“We have found that women are able to foresee the consequences of carrying an unwanted pregnancy to term,” Foster told Stateline. “The reasons people give for choosing an abortion — insufficient resources, poor relationships, the need to care for existing children — are the same negative outcomes we see when they cannot get an abortion.

“So it is not surprising that some people will respond to the lack of legal abortion by trying to avoid a pregnancy altogether.”

Few doctors and services

States with abortion bans and other restrictions also tend to have large swaths of maternal health care “deserts,” where there are too few OB-GYNs and labor and delivery facilities. That creates greater maternal health risks.

Medical exceptions to abortion bans often exclude mental health conditions

One such state is Georgia, where until a court ruling this week, abortion was banned after six weeks. Dr. LeThenia “Joy” Baker, an OB-GYN in rural Georgia, said she sees patients in their early 20s who have multiple children and are seeking sterilizations to prevent further pregnancies, or who have conditions that make pregnancy dangerous for them. Her state has one of the highest maternal death rates in the nation.

On Monday, a Georgia county judge struck down the state’s six-week abortion ban, meaning that for now, women have access to the procedure up to about 22 weeks of pregnancy. The state is appealing the decision, and it’s expected to eventually be decided by the state Supreme Court.

The county judge’s ruling comes two weeks after ProPublica reported that two women in the state died after they couldn’t access legal in-state abortions and timely medical care for rare complications from abortion pills.

Black and Indigenous women disproportionately experience higher rates of complications, such as preeclampsia and hemorrhage, which contributes to their higher maternal mortality and morbidity rates. Baker said some of her patients say they want to avoid risking another pregnancy because of those previous complications.

“I have had quite a few patients, who were both pregnant and not pregnant, who inquire about sterilization,” she said. “I do think that patients are thinking a lot more about their reproductive life plan now, because there is very little margin.”

Along with the state’s abortion restrictions, Baker said women in her Bible Belt community feel social pressure that can push them toward sterilization.

“It is definitely more socially acceptable to say, ‘I’m going to get my tubes tied or removed,’ than to say, ‘Hey, I want to find abortion care,’” Baker said.

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In states where lawmakers have proposed restrictions on contraception, women might feel tubal sterilization to be the most surefire way to prevent pregnancy. Megan Kavanaugh, a contraception researcher at the Guttmacher Institute, a reproductive health policy research center that supports abortion rights, said the research doesn’t say whether women who seek sterilization would have preferred another form of contraception.

“We need to both understand which methods people are using and whether those methods are actually the methods they want to be using,” said Kavanaugh, whose team studied contraceptive access and use in Arizona, Iowa, New Jersey and Wisconsin. “It’s really important to be monitoring both use and preferences in terms of heading towards an ideal where those are aligned.”

Tubal sterilizations can still fail at preventing a pregnancy, Foster said. One recent study noted that up to 5% of patients who underwent a tubal sterilization got pregnant later.

“If people are choosing sterilization who would otherwise pick something less permanent, then that is another very sad outcome of these abortion bans,” she added.

Another recent study, by Jacqueline Ellison, a University of Pittsburgh assistant professor who researches health policy, found that more young patients — both women and men — sought permanent contraceptive procedures in the wake of the Dobbs decision. The study focused on people ages 18 to 30 — the age group most likely to seek an abortion and the ones who previous studies suggest are most likely to experience “sterilization regret,” Ellison said.

A troubled history

The issue also can’t be disentangled from the nation’s history of coercive sterilizations, Ellison and other experts said. In the 1960s and 1970s, federally funded nonconsensual sterilization procedures were performed on Indigenous, Black and Hispanic women, as well as people with disabilities.

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“People feeling pressured to undergo permanent contraception and people being forced into using permanent contraception are just two sides of the idea of reproductive oppression in this country,” Ellison said. “They’re just manifested in different ways.”

Medicaid, the joint federal-state health insurance program for low-income people, now has regulations designed to prevent coerced procedures. But the rules can have unintended consequences, said Dr. Sonya Borrero, an internal medicine physician and director of the University of Pittsburgh’s Center for Innovative Research on Gender Health Equity.

The process includes a 30-day waiting period after a patient signs a sterilization procedure consent form, Borrero noted. But pregnant women who want the procedure done right after delivery might not reach the 30-day threshold if they go into early labor, she said. She added that some patients are confused by the form.

Borrero launched a tool called MyDecision/MiDecisión, an English and Spanish web-based tool that walks patients through their tubal ligation decision and dispels misinformation around the permanent procedure.

“The importance and the relevance of it right now is particularly pronounced,” she said.

Stateline is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Stateline maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Scott S. Greenberger for questions: info@stateline.org. Follow Stateline on Facebook and X.

States consider menthol cigarette bans as feds delay action

This article was originally published by Stateline.

About 80% of Black smokers use menthol cigarettes, which are more addictive.

It was just after sunset, and the evening traffic was buzzing on Highway 50 as 24-year-old Elijah Kinlaw popped into his local Walgreens in Clermont, Florida, to pick up some smokes. He had just finished a long day working at a local roofing company, and he was still wearing his neon green work T-shirt and a red beanie.

After his shifts, Kinlaw typically smokes to wind down. His cigarette of choice: a cooling, minty Newport.

Kinlaw, who started smoking at 19, wants to just “breathe and take one day at a time” instead of relying on cigarettes, but quitting isn’t easy. He’s tried twice and plans to try again.

“Eventually, it catches up to you,” said Kinlaw, one of the disproportionate number of Black smokers who prefer menthol cigarettes. “It’s not good for you. It’s not a high. It doesn’t feel good.”

Menthol cigarettes can be more addictive than regular cigarettes because the menthol masks the harsh burn, making the smoke easier to inhale. Black people smoke at similar rates to white people overall, but most Black smokers — more than 80% — smoke menthol cigarettes, and they are more likely to die of smoking-related disease, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

For years, public health experts have advocated for higher sales taxes on menthol cigarettes or even an outright ban. In 2021, the federal Food and Drug Administration announced a proposal to prohibit the sale of menthol cigarettes, a move that could prevent up to 650,000 deaths nationwide over several decades, according to research cited by the agency.

But following heavy lobbying — and perhaps fearing the loss of Black votes in an election year — President Joe Biden in December delayed the final decision on a ban. The administration hopes to announce a decision next month.

The delay has drawn fierce criticism from public health organizations. Meanwhile, some states are acting on their own.

Small-shop owners fear bans will hurt their businesses, and some Black leaders say they worry about more policing in their communities.

Massachusetts in 2020 became the first state to ban the sale of all flavored tobacco products, including menthol cigarettes. California enacted a similar ban in 2022. This year, bills that would empower state officials to ban the sale of menthol along with all other flavored tobacco products have been introduced in at least four states (Hawaii, New York, Vermont and Washington). Last year, bills were introduced in at least 10 states.

In addition, more than 190 cities and counties across at least eight states have restricted the sale of menthol cigarettes, according to the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids.

Other minority groups also disproportionately smoke menthols: In 2020, 51% of Hispanic adult smokers reported using menthol cigarettes, compared with 35% of non-Hispanic white adult smokers, according to the CDC. Research has shown that female smokers and those who are Asian, Native Hawaiian, Alaska Native, LGBT, or who have mental health conditions also are more likely to smoke menthols.

Kinlaw said he’s in favor of a ban. “We’ve got to take precaution,” he said.

Industry influence

But the tobacco industry has long marketed menthol cigarettes to Black communities. The marketing of Kool and Newport brand menthol cigarettes to Black people began gaining ground in the 1950s, and included focused advertising and corporate sponsorships of events popular in Black communities, such as jazz concerts. One 2013 study of Black middle- and high-school students in California found they were three times more likely than non-Black students to recognize cigarette ads featuring Newport as opposed to Marlboro.

To shed light on that fact and to call for change, dozens of people last month took part in a funeral march in Washington, D.C., held by the African American Tobacco Control Leadership Council. Rather than marking a single death, the marchers — led by trumpet players and people carrying a casket reminiscent of a cigarette pack — were demanding the demise of menthol cigarettes.

A demonstration against menthol cigarettes. Kirsten John Foy, founder of The Arc of Justice, a community organization, speaks at a “menthol funeral” demonstration in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 18, 2024. The event, organized by the African American Tobacco Control Leadership Council, aimed to raise awareness of menthol’s disproportionate harmful effects on Black communities as a federal ban is delayed. Courtesy of Josh Brown/African American Tobacco Control Leadership Council

Phillip Gardiner, a behavioral scientist and expert on racial health disparities who co-chairs the council, said multiple presidential administrations “have dragged their feet” on the issue.

“Instead of burying African Americans, let’s bury menthol,” said Gardiner, whose own father died from smoking-related disease at 65.

In nearby Maryland, state law prohibits the sale of flavored e-cigarettes but there is an exemption for menthol-flavored products. Only one other state, Utah, has a similar law. A Maryland bill that would have banned the sale of all flavored tobacco products failed last year.

Maryland Democratic state Sen. Joanne Claybon Benson represents the Washington suburb of Prince George’s County, which is majority Black. Her husband died from lung cancer complications when he was only 59.

“I can personally tell you the story of how harmful menthol cigarettes can be to an individual, an individual of color,” said Benson, her voice tinged with frustration. Benson doesn’t smoke, but she was exposed to secondhand smoke from her husband and is a cancer survivor. “We don’t want smoking, period, of any kind in our community.”

An analysis published last week in the Oxford University Press journal Nicotine & Tobacco Research found that bans on the sale of menthol cigarettes can help smokers quit entirely. Researchers examined local bans in the United States, Canada and the European Union, and found that a quarter of menthol smokers quit smoking after a ban was enacted.

Sarah Mills, an assistant public health professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and a lead author of the study, said policymakers considering bans should be aware of the tobacco industry’s “long history of providing funding to different groups and of using front groups” to oppose them.

Princeton University professor Keith Wailoo, a medical historian and author of the book “Pushing Cool: Big Tobacco, Racial Marketing, and the Untold Story of the Menthol Cigarette,” said tobacco’s disproportionate harm to Black people cannot be disentangled from the money Big Tobacco has spent in Black communities.

“If you want to understand how menthol both started and built a foothold, you have to understand the way in which the industry developed tentacles from the street corner level, by identifying influencers and then funding politicians who would defend their rights to advertise, to supporting civil rights organizations,” Wailoo said in an interview.

“The history of menthol cigarettes is part of the history of the slow strangulation of Black people.”

Pushback on bans

But some opponents of bans wonder why legislators are singling out menthol cigarettes and other flavored tobacco products while allowing the sale of other dangerous items. Beatriz Rodriguez, who owns the Dat Hoot Smoke Shop in Apopka, Florida, said the proposed federal ban would harm her business.

“As a small-business owner, obviously that would hurt me,” Rodriguez said. “It would upset me because there’s so many other things that are way more dangerous. Tobacco kills — but it’s like, OK, alcohol kills, prescription pills kill.”

Other critics argue a menthol ban would lead to over-policing of Black communities. In New York, for example, Black, Puerto Rican, Hispanic and Asian Legislative Caucus Chair Michaelle Solages, a Democratic assemblymember, has been an outspoken opponent.

“We are very cautious about enforcement on the average New Yorker,” Solages said in an interview, adding she worries about “over-enforcement in marginalized, underserved communities of color.”

But the FDA has made it clear that any ban would target the retail sale of menthol cigarettes and not the people who use them. “Importantly, the FDA cannot and will not enforce against individual consumers for possession or use of menthol cigarettes or flavored cigars,” a news release on the proposed rule states.

Gardiner and Wailoo said people who warn of increased policing are echoing arguments that the tobacco industry has made. He said the industry often tries to “tap into anxieties and concerns” about police violence or aggressive policing that already exist.

Meanwhile, other public health experts say increasing taxes on menthol cigarettes — a strategy that has been used to reduce overall smoking — won’t pack nearly the same punch as a ban.

“You’re taxing people who have been targeted by companies,” said Ruqaiijah Yearby, a health law professor at the Moritz College of Law at Ohio State University. “You’re not actually getting at the people who have caused the harm — which are the cigarette companies.”

Yearby also criticized state laws that tie the hands of local officials who want to crack down on tobacco use. Republican lawmakers in Ohio recently blocked cities and counties from passing their own tobacco control ordinances. The American Lung Association says that 39 states have such laws.

Florida, where Kinlaw is trying to quit smoking and Rodriguez worries about her smoke shop, is one of them.