Niles Francis, Georgia Recorder

Standstill as GOP fails to find frontrunner in major swing state race: 'All eyes on Trump'

Georgia is set to host what will likely be the most expensive U.S. Senate race in the country next year. But Republicans are still searching for a clear frontrunner to take on Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, who continues to raise huge sums of cash as he prepares to defend his seat.

U.S. Reps. Mike Collins and Buddy Carter, along with former football coach Derek Dooley, are locked in a three-way race to take on the first-term senator. But latest fundraising figures suggest that the party remains largely undecided on a consensus candidate.

Collins, a Butts County trucking company owner and the son of a former congressman, said he raised about $1.9 million since entering the race, plus an additional $1 million transfer from his congressional campaign account. His team is hailing the fundraising numbers as proof that Collins is the “unmistakable frontrunner” in the Republican primary.

Dooley, who boasts an endorsement from Gov. Brian Kemp, also raised a little less than $2 million since he joined the contest. The former Tennessee Volunteers coach and son of Georgia coaching legend Vince Dooley has to walk a fine line between satisfying both Kemp’s allies and MAGA loyalists. But he also has to alleviate concerns about his scant political history and thin ties to Georgia.

And Carter, a wealthy pharmacist from St. Simons Island and the only candidate who entered the race before the start of the third quarter, raised another $1 million over the three-month stretch and loaned himself an additional $2 million. “We didn’t inherit anything from daddy,” he said in an apparent dig at his two rivals. “We’re earning it – every dime, every vote.”

With no leading Republican candidate, all eyes will now turn to President Donald Trump – who can single-handedly turn this into a completely different race with a social media post announcing an endorsement.

And the president said Wednesday that he is indeed keeping a close eye on the Senate race (and continued doubling down on false claims surrounding his 2020 defeat). “The governor has spoken to me about [the Senate race] a lot, he likes [Dooley] a lot, and I understand that. I haven’t made a decision yet. But I’m following that race very carefully. I think it’s important for Georgia to get a real senator because [Ossoff] is a horrible senator.”

Ossoff continues to be among the top Senate fundraisers in the country, raising another $12 million between July and September and ending the period with more than $20 million stashed away. But it’s only a small fraction of what the race is likely to cost: nearly half a billion dollars was spent on Georgia’s 2022 Senate battle between Sen. Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, and Republican Herschel Walker.

And Ossoff has established a reputation as one of his party’s strongest fundraisers. His 2017 campaign in a congressional special election brought in over $30 million. The Atlanta Democrat has now raised more than $200 million since his 2020 Senate bid, when he and Warnock ousted Republican incumbents to deliver a narrow Democratic Senate majority.

“If we’ve learned anything from recent elections, it’s that raising more money isn’t necessarily an indicator of future electoral success,” said Adam Carlson, a Democratic pollster who has worked behind the scenes on several Georgia campaigns. “But Jon Ossoff raising more than 250% of all three of his potential Republican opponents combined in Q3 is telling.”

Head-to-head polling between Ossoff and his Republican rivals has been sparse. But the incumbent appears to be starting out on solid ground: Morning Consult’s updated tracking poll found his approval rating at 51% with a disapproval of 34%. But will these numbers hold by this time next year once negative campaign commercials start flooding the airwaves?

Sheer ambition has pitched this red state's leadership into a civil war

When the Georgia Senate stunned the state Capitol and wrapped up work before the typical midnight deadline on the last night of the 2025 session, a visibly frustrated House Speaker Jon Burns took a not-so-subtle dig at his friends across the hall.

“The House is focusing on its priorities of getting the job done, and we’re not worried about moving on to some other higher office,” the powerful Republican told reporters shortly before gaveling out his own chamber. “We came here to do a job, and we did our job.”

With the exception of the presidency, just about every position in politics can be considered a stepping stone to something bigger. But it’s not often (maybe once every four or eight years) that ambitious and powerful lawmakers suddenly go from colleagues to campaign rivals as they all seek to add another title to their resume.

The tension is already creeping into Georgia’s upper chamber, where greetings on the Senate floor have started to sound more aspirational than ceremonial. It’s not out of the ordinary, a former lawmaker once said, to hear someone walk onto the Senate floor and randomly shout, “Good morning, Congressman!”

But it’s becoming more than just a joke tossed around the chamber. At least 10 state senators — Republican and Democrat — are leaving behind their seats and leadership positions to run for “some other higher office,” in the colorful words of the speaker. And that number could grow as more offices open up ahead of the 2026 elections.

Let’s start at the top: Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, who serves as president of the senate, recently launched a bid for governor.

Three Republican state senators have already entered the race to succeed Jones: Steve Gooch of Dahlonega, John F. Kennedy of Macon and Blake Tillery of Vidalia. State Sen. Josh McLaurin, a Sandy Springs attorney, is the only known Democratic contender so far.

With Attorney General Chris Carr also fighting for the governor’s chair, Republican state Sens. Brian Strickland of McDonough and Bill Cowsert of Athens, both lawyers, are aiming to become the state’s next top prosecutor. State Sen. Emanuel Jones is challenging a longtime incumbent in a metro Atlanta congressional seat. And state Sen. Jason Esteves is running in the Democratic primary for governor.

A lot of these names aren’t “backbenchers” — they are synonymous with the levers of power in the chamber. Kennedy is the president pro tempore, Gooch is the majority leader, and Tillery chairs the budget-drafting appropriations committee. Strickland chairs the judiciary committee, and Cowsert is also a former Senate leader (and a brother-in-law to outgoing Gov. Brian Kemp).

And a change in Republican bylaws means that many of these members must immediately stand down from their roles in leadership while they campaign for a different office, which means new leaders are already being named ahead of the 2026 session.

While this mass exodus of seasoned legislators definitely says a lot about their own ambitions (and how awkward next year’s session is going to be), it’s also a sign of the power transition underway at the state Capitol with Gov. Brian Kemp entering the final year of his term.

The governor’s mansion isn’t the only big office up for grabs. Insurance Commissioner John King is running to oust Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper are said to be plotting their next moves as well. More open statewide offices could lead to more lawmakers ditching their annual 40 days of work in search for higher office.

With several key senators already departing, however, the chamber is set to lose years of wisdom and institutional knowledge as key offices prepare to change hands. So the next governor and lieutenant governor won’t be the only ones learning on the job — a lot of their legislative partners will be new to their roles as well.

Strickland says the looming leadership turnover brings a great opportunity for new faces and names to step up to the plate.

“I think you’re going to see a chance for new people to step in who might have different leadership styles, but will maybe bring some needed changes in some particular areas,” he said recently while on break from court.

In the short term, lawmakers will need to convene for one more session before next November. But with so many senators running for other offices, how many of them will be focused on doing the work they were elected to do and not itching to get back out on the campaign trail?

“I think it’s incumbent on all of us who are running statewide to set [our campaigns] aside for those 40 days and to do the job we were elected to do for those 40 days,” finished Strickland.

“Obviously there’s going to be some tension. My hope is that it does not come from me.”