Phil Galewitz, Kff Health News

Doctors, hospitals, and health insurers for weeks issued dire warnings to Republican lawmakers that millions of people would lose health coverage and hospitals would close if they cut Medicaid funding to help pay for President Donald Trump’s big tax and spending bill.

But Republicans ignored those pleas, made even deeper cuts, and sent the legislation on July 3 to the White House, where Trump signed it the next day.

The law’s passage marked a rare political loss for some of the health industry’s biggest players. When unified, doctors, hospitals, and insurers have stood among the most powerful lobbying forces in Washington and have a long track record of blocking or forcing changes to legislation that could hurt them financially.

But health industry lobbyists are catching their breath and assessing the damage after Trump’s massive bill raced through Congress in less than two months with only Republican votes.

Several lobbyists offered various reasons for being unable to stave off big cuts to Medicaid, a $900 billion state-federal health insurance program that covers an estimated 72 million low-income and disabled people nationally and accounts for 19% of all spending on hospital care, about $283 billion a year, according to the latest data. But nearly all agreed that GOP lawmakers were more worried about angering Trump than facing backlash from local hospitals and constituents back home.

“Members were more scared of Trump issuing a primary challenge than disappointing local voters who may find their hospital has to close or their insurance premium may go up,” said Bob Kocher, a partner with venture capital firm Venrock who served in the Obama administration, referring to election primaries leading into the midterms.

Consider what happened to Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). After he took to the Senate floor to announce his opposition to the bill because of its cuts to Medicaid, Trump threatened to support a challenger to run against Tillis next year. Shortly thereafter, Tillis announced his retirement from politics.

But other factors were at work.

The health industry’s warnings to lawmakers may have been dismissed because hospitals, health centers, and other health care provider groups are seen by Republicans as strong backers of the Affordable Care Act, the law known as Obamacare that’s considered Democrats’ biggest domestic achievement in decades.

The ACA expanded government health insurance coverage to millions of people previously not eligible. And no Republicans voted for it.

“Hospitals’ support of the ACA has frustrated Republicans, and as a result there is less a reservoir of goodwill to hospitals than in the past,” Kocher said.

Ceci Connolly, chief executive of the Alliance of Community Health Plans, said her lobbying team spent extra time on Capitol Hill with lawmakers and their staffers, raising concerns about how the legislation would imperil health care coverage.

“There was almost an overriding sense on the part of Republicans in Congress to deliver a major victory for President Trump,” she said. Her group represents health plans that provide coverage in about 40 states. “That superseded some of their concerns, reluctance, and hesitation.”

Connolly said she repeatedly heard from GOP lawmakers that the focus was on delivering on Trump’s campaign promise to extend his 2017 tax cuts.

She said the concerns of some moderate members helped lead to one concession: a $50 billion fund to help rural hospitals and other health providers.

The money, she said, may have made it easier for some lawmakers to support a bill that, in total, cuts more than $1 trillion from Medicaid over a decade.

Another twist: Many new lawmakers were clearly still learning about Medicaid, she said.

Republicans also seemed eager to reduce the scope of Medicaid and Affordable Care Act marketplace coverage after enrollment in both programs soared to record levels during the pandemic and the Biden administration, she said. Trump’s law requires states to verify eligibility for Medicaid at least every six months and ends auto-enrollment into marketplace plans — steps health policy experts says will reverse some of those gains.

Charles “Chip” Kahn, a longtime health lobbyist and CEO of the Federation of American Hospitals, which represents for-profit hospitals, said the industry’s message was heard on Capitol Hill. But because the bill dealt with so many other issues, including tax cuts, border security, and energy, lawmakers had to decide whether potential health coverage losses were more important.

It was very different than in 2017, when Republicans tried to repeal Obamacare but failed. Trump’s 2025 measure, Kahn said, isn’t a health reform bill or a health bill.

It “left us with an outcome that was unfortunate.”

There were some successes, however, Kahn said.

Industry lobbying did prevent the federal government from reducing its share of spending for states that expanded Medicaid under the ACA. Hospitals and other Medicaid advocates also persuaded Congress not to cap the program’s open-ended federal funding to states. Both measures would have tallied billions more in additional Medicaid funding cuts.

The new law doesn’t change eligibility rules for Medicaid or change its benefits. But it does stipulate that states require most Medicaid enrollees who gained coverage via the ACA’s expansion to document that they work or volunteer 80 hours a month, a provision the Congressional Budget Office predicts will lead to about 5 million people losing coverage by 2034.

The law also limits states’ use of a decades-old system of taxing health providers to leverage extra federal Medicaid funding. This was another loss for the hospital industry, which has supported the practice because it led to higher payments from Medicaid.

Medicaid generally pays lower fees for care than private insurance and Medicare, the program for people 65 and older as well as those with disabilities. But due to provider taxes, some hospitals are paid more under Medicaid than Medicare, according to the Commonwealth Fund, a health research nonprofit.

Kahn credits the Paragon Health Institute, a conservative think tank, and its CEO Brian Blase for pushing the argument that provider taxes amounted to legalized “money laundering.” Blase advised Trump on health policy in his first term.

One hospital executive who asked for his name to be withheld to avoid professional retribution said the message — that some facilities had used this play to increase their profits — resonated with GOP lawmakers. “They thought some hospitals were doing fine financially and did not want to reward them,” he said.

Still, Kahn, who is retiring at the end of the year, said he was pleased the Senate delayed implementation of the provider tax cuts until 2028. That will give the health industry a chance to revise the law, he speculated, possibly after the 2026 midterm election changes the balance of power in Congress.

In rural northeastern Louisiana, Todd Eppler, CEO of Desoto Regional Medical Center, had hoped Congress would pass the initial House version of the bill, which didn’t include cuts to provider-tax funding. But he said any impact on his hospital in Mansfield, located in House Speaker Mike Johnson’s district, will be offset by the $50 billion rural health fund.

“I am happy where we ended up,” Eppler said. “I think they listened to rural hospitals.”

Hospitals have argued for decades that any cuts in federal funding to Medicaid or Medicare would harm patients and lead to service reductions. Because hospitals are usually one of the largest employers in a congressional district, the industry often also warns of potential job losses. Such arguments typically give lawmakers pause.

But this time around, that message had little traction.

One health industry lobbyist, who asked not to be identified to speak candidly without risking professional repercussions, said there was a sense on Capitol Hill that hospitals could withstand the funding cuts.

But there’s also a belief that trade groups including the American Hospital Association, the largest hospital industry lobbying organization, could have been more effective. “There is lot of concern that AHA statements were too soft, too little, and too late,” he said.

AHA helped lead a coalition of hospital organizations that spent millions of dollars on television advertising against the GOP bill. Its president and CEO, Rick Pollack, said in a statement before the House voted on the legislation that the cuts to Medicaid would be a “devastating blow to the health and well-being of our nation’s most vulnerable citizens and communities.”

Pollack said in a statement to KFF Health News that the appeal of tax cuts drove Republican lawmakers to pass the law.

“Hospitals and health systems have tirelessly advocated to protect coverage and access for millions of people,” he said. “We will continue to raise these critical issues to mitigate the effects of these proposals.”

The nation’s largest trade group for doctors, the American Medical Association, also opposed the funding cuts to Medicaid and other federal health programs. Its president, Bobby Mukkamala, said in a July 1 statement that the changes “will shift costs to the states and specifically to physicians and hospitals to provide uncompensated care at a time when rural hospitals and physician practices are struggling to keep their doors open.”

But the AMA was also focused on securing higher Medicare fees for doctors. The law ultimately included a one-time 2.5% Medicare pay bump for doctors in 2026. This wasn’t a victory because it left out the House version’s permanent payment fix that would have tied doctor pay to the medical inflation rate. Mukkamala noted the temporary lift but described it as falling “far short of what is needed to preserve access to care for America’s seniors.”

Joe Dunn, chief policy officer at the National Association of Community Health Centers, said his organization worked relentlessly this year to prevent deeper Medicaid cuts that would financially hurt nonprofit clinics. Health center administrators visited Washington in February, made thousands of phone calls, and sent emails to members of Congress.

One payoff was that the health centers were exempted from the law’s requirement that providers charge some Medicaid enrollees up to $35 copayments for services.

But at the end of the day, Dunn said, many GOP House and Senate members simply wanted to finish the bill. “They went in a direction that satisfied the president’s timelines and goals,” he said.

Chief Washington correspondent Julie Rovner contributed to this report.

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This article first appeared on KFF Health News and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

Nearly two-thirds of adults oppose President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” approved in May by the House of Representatives, according to a KFF poll released Tuesday.

And even Trump’s most ardent supporters like the legislation a lot less when they learn how it would cut federal spending on health programs, the poll shows.

The KFF poll found that about 61% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents — and 72% of the subset who identify with Trump’s “Make American Great Again” movement — support the bill, which would extend many of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts while reducing spending on domestic programs, including cutting billions from Medicaid.

But when pollsters told survey respondents about the bill’s consequences for health care, opposition grew, including among MAGA supporters.

For example, after being told that the bill would decrease funding for local hospitals and increase the number of people without health insurance, support among those who back MAGA dropped more than 20 percentage points — resulting in less than half the group still backing the bill.

Ashley Kirzinger, KFF’s director of survey methodology and associate director of its Public Opinion and Survey Research program, said it’s no surprise polling shows that party affiliation affects how most of the public views the bill.

“But the poll shows that support, even among MAGA supporters, drops drastically once the public hears more about how the bill could impact local hospitals and reduce Medicaid coverage,” she said.

“This shows how the partisan lens wears slightly when the public learns more about how the legislation could affect them and their families.”

KFF is a health policy research, polling, and news organization that includes KFF Health News.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican who won passage of the legislation in the chamber he controls by a single vote on May 22, has insisted the bill would not “cut Medicaid.” The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, which calculates the effects of legislation on the nation’s deficits and debt, says the measure would reduce federal spending on Medicaid by $793 billion over 10 years, resulting in nearly 8 million more people becoming uninsured.

The bill is encountering strident opposition from the health industry, most notably hospitals that expect to see large cuts in funding as a result of millions of people losing Medicaid coverage. The House-passed legislation would increase the frequency of eligibility checks and require that most nondisabled adults regularly prove they are working, studying, or volunteering at least 80 hours a month to keep their coverage.

“This is common sense,” Johnson said May 25 on the CBS News program “Face the Nation.” “And when the American people understand what we are doing here, they applaud it.”

Critics say the bill marks the latest attempt by Republicans to roll back the Affordable Care Act.

As the Senate moves toward a possible vote on its version of the legislation before Independence Day, the KFF poll shows Medicaid and the ACA are more popular than ever.

About 83% of adults support Medicaid, including large majorities of Democrats (93%), independents (83%), and Republicans (74%). That’s up from 77% in January, with the poll finding the biggest jump in favorability among Republicans.

Medicaid and the related Children’s Health Insurance Program cover about 78 million people who are disabled or have low incomes.

About two-thirds of adults hold favorable views of the ACA, the most since the law’s enactment in 2010, as recorded in KFF polls. The law has only been consistently popular with a majority of adults since about 2021.

Views of the ACA remain split along partisan lines, with most Republicans (63%) holding unfavorable views and most Democrats (94%) and independents (71%) viewing it favorably.

The poll found other indications that the public may not understand key provisions of the GOP bill, including its work requirements.

The poll finds two-thirds of the public — including the vast majority of Republicans (88%) and MAGA supporters (93%) and half (51%) of Democrats — initially support requiring nearly all adults on Medicaid to prove they are working or looking for work, in school, or doing community service, with exceptions such as for caregivers and people with disabilities.

However, attitudes toward this provision shifted dramatically when respondents were presented with more information.

For example, when told most adults with Medicaid are already working or unable to work, and that those individuals could lose coverage due to the challenge of documenting it, about half of supporters changed their view, resulting in nearly two-thirds of adults opposing Medicaid work requirements and about a third supporting them.

The poll of 1,321 adults was conducted online and by telephone June 4-8 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF—an independent source of health policy research, polling, and journalism. Learn more about KFF.

Under President Joe Biden, enrollment in Medicaid hit a record high and the uninsured rate reached a record low.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House — along with a GOP-controlled Senate and House of Representatives — is expected to change that.

Republicans in Washington say they plan to use funding cuts and regulatory changes to dramatically shrink Medicaid, the nearly $900-billion-a-year government health insurance program that, along with the related Children’s Health Insurance Program, serves about 79 million mostly low-income or disabled Americans.

The proposals include rolling back the Affordable Care Act’s expansion of Medicaid, which over the last 11 years added about 20 million low-income adults to its rolls. Trump has said he wants to drastically cut government spending, which may be necessary for Republicans to extend 2017 tax cuts that expire at the end of this year.

Trump made little mention of Medicaid during the 2024 campaign. The first Trump administration approved work requirements in several states, though only Arkansas implemented theirs before a federal judge said it violated the law. The first Trump administration also sought to block grant funding to states.

House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) told KFF Health News that Medicaid and other federal entitlement programs need major changes to help cut the federal debt. “Without them, we will watch this country sadly enter into fiscal collapse.”

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), a member of the Budget Committee, said Congress needs to explore cutting federal spending on Medicaid.

“You need wholesale reform on the health care front, which can include undoing a lot of the damage being done by the ACA and Obamacare,” Roy said. “Frankly, we could end up providing better service if we do it the right way.”

Advocates for poor people fear GOP funding cuts will leave more Americans without insurance, making it harder for them to get care.

“Medicaid is an obvious target for huge cuts,” said Joan Alker, executive director of Georgetown University’s Center for Children and Families. “An existential fight about Medicaid’s future likely lies ahead.”

Medicaid, which turns 60 in July, is nearing the end of a disruptive period, after covid pandemic-era coverage protections expired in 2023 and all enrollees had to prove they still qualified. More than 25 million people lost coverage over the 18 months after the “unwinding” began, though it has not notably increased the number of people without insurance, according to the latest census data.

The unwinding’s disruptions could pale in comparison to what happens in the next four years, said Matt Salo, former executive director and founder of the National Association of Medicaid Directors. “What we are going to see is an even bigger seismic shift in who Medicaid covers and how it operates,” he said.

But Salo said any efforts to shrink the program will face pushback.

“A lot of powerful entities — state governments, managed-care organizations, long-term care providers, and everyone under the sun who wants to do well by doing good — wants to see Medicaid work efficiently and be adequately funded,” he said. “And they will be highly motivated to push back on something they see as draconian cuts, because it could affect their business model.”

The GOP is looking at several tactics to reduce the size of Medicaid:

• Shifting to block grants. Switching to annual block grants could lower federal funding for states to operate the program while giving states more discretion over how to spend the money. Currently, the government matches a certain percentage of state spending each year with no cap. Republican presidents since Ronald Reagan have sought to block-grant Medicaid with no success. Arrington said he favors ending the open-ended federal funding to states and replacing it with a set annual amount based on how many people each state has in the program.
• Cutting ACA Medicaid funding. The ACA provided financing to cover, through Medicaid, Americans with incomes up to 138% of the federal poverty level, or $20,783 for an individual last year. The federal government pays 90% of the cost for adults covered through the law’s Medicaid expansion, which 40 states and Washington, D.C., have adopted. The GOP may try to lower that funding to the same match rate the feds pay states for everyone else in the program, which averages about 60%. “We should absolutely note that we are subsidizing the healthy, able-bodied Medicaid expansion population at a higher rate than we do the poorest and sickest among us, which was the original intent of the program,” Arrington said. “That’s not right.”
• Lowering federal matching funds. Since Medicaid began, the federal match rate has been based on the relative wealth of a state’s population, with poorer states receiving a higher rate and no state receiving less than a 50% match. Ten states get the base rate — all but two are Democratic-run states, including New York and California. The GOP may seek to cut the base rate to 40% or less.
• Adding work requirements. During the first Trump term, federal courts ruled that Medicaid law doesn’t allow coverage to be conditioned on enrollees’ working or seeking jobs. But the GOP may try again. “If we can get strict work requirements on able-bodied adults, that can be a huge cost savings by itself,” Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Calif.) told KFF Health News. Because most Medicaid enrollees already work, go to school, or serve as caregivers, critics say such a requirement would simply add red tape to obtaining coverage, with little impact on employment.
• Placing enrollment hurdles. About 10 states offer some populations what’s called continuous eligibility, whereby people stay enrolled for years without having to renew their coverage. That policy’s been shown to prevent enrollees from falling out of the program for short periods because of hardships or paperwork problems, which can lead to surprise medical bills and debt. The Trump administration could seek to repeal waivers that allow states to grant multiyear continuous eligibility, which would require people in those states to reapply for coverage annually.

If the GOP’s plans to shrink Medicaid are realized, Democrats and health experts say, low-income people forced to buy private insurance would face challenges paying monthly premiums and the large copayments and deductibles common to commercial plans that typically don’t exist in Medicaid.

The Paragon Health Institute, a leading conservative think tank run by former Trump adviser Brian Blase, has issued reports saying the billions in extra money states took to expand Medicaid under the ACA has been a boon to private insurers that manage the program and relatively wealthier people it says shouldn’t be enrolled.

Josh Archambault, a senior fellow with the conservative Cicero Institute, said he hopes the Trump administration holds states accountable for overpaying providers and enrolling people in Medicaid who are not eligible. Conservatives have cited CMS reports saying states improperly pay Medicaid providers billions of dollars a year, though the federal government notes that is mostly due to lack of documentation.

He said the GOP will look to scale back Medicaid to its “traditional” populations of children, pregnant women, and people with disabilities. “We need to rebalance the program that most people think is underperforming,” he said. Most Americans, including large majorities of both Republicans and Democrats, view the program favorably, according to polls.

KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF—an independent source of health policy research, polling, and journalism. Learn more about KFF.

Subscribe to KFF Health News' free Morning Briefing.

This article first appeared on KFF Health News and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.