This is sort of my specialty, so hopefully I won’t make any errors, but you see errors in these things all the time, even on official sites, so if I do screw it up let me know in comments and I’ll update. The scenarios are in order from most to least likely. I’d give you odds but then you’d go and gamble and lose and blame me.
This result is so likely that it’s a bit difficult to detail all the different ways it can happen. Suffice it to say this is what happens if none of this other mess I’m about to describe happens.
Uruguay WIN + France WIN by total margin of at least 5 goals
Mexico WIN + France WIN by total margin of at least 6 goals
Uruguay WIN + South Africa WIN by a total margin of at least 6 goals
Mexico WIN + South Africa WIN by a total margin of at least 7 goals
Royal Bafokeng Stadium HIT BY METEOR
Argentina WIN or TIE+ South Korea WIN or TIE
Greece WIN by <3 + South Korea WIN by >1
Argentina WIN + Nigeria WIN by >1
Greece WIN + Nigeria WIN or TIE
Greece WIN by >2 + South Korea WIN by <2
Greece WIN by >2 + South Korea WIN by >1
These scenarios look a little wilder than reality, of course; Argentina, South Korea, Mexico and Uruguay are heavy favorites to advance.