Democratic US Senate candidate Mary Peltola answers questions after an appearance at the Alaska Federation of Natives Convention in Anchorage, Alaska, US, October 23, 2026. REUTERS/Kerry Tasker
Democrat Mary Peltola’s growing lead in Alaska’s Senate race has undercut one of President Donald Trump’s arguments about the contest. Her lead over Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is now bigger than the vote total of the second Dan Sullivan on the ballot.
Trump demanded on Truth Social that votes for independent candidate Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., whom he called the “Fake Dan Sullivan,” be handed to the incumbent. “Dan Sullivan PLUS Dan Sullivan wins the Alaska Election by thousands of votes,” Trump wrote. He said the votes “should immediately be given to the Real Dan Sullivan (Senator!)” and called the contest a “Rigged Election.”
By Wednesday, the numbers no longer backed him up. With about 84 percent of ballots counted, Peltola had 118,926 votes, or 48.9 percent. Sullivan had 114,676 votes and Sullivan Jr. had 4,027, which adds up to 118,703. Even if the two Sullivans’ votes were combined, Peltola would lead.
“Peltola’s lead is now greater than the margin of votes cast for Daniel J. Sullivan — so even if you took the Trump approach and added his ballots to Sen. Sullivan’s, it wouldn’t change the outcome,” wrote Politico’s Kyle Cheney.
“This means Peltola is already beating the combined Sullivan vote before any RCV takes place,” wrote John Samuelsen, international president of the Transport Workers Union.
Peltola now might not need ranked-choice voting at all, wrote self-described political junkie Russell Drew.
“We’re getting to the point where Mary Peltola might not even need rank choice voting to get to 50%,” Drew wrote. “In any case, she’s about to make some history.”
CNN’s Aaron Blake noted that Peltola has “gained 0.7 points in the last 10% of ballots,” and said “that puts her on pace to get close to 50%, which would negate the need for ranked-choice tabulations.”
Peltola’s campaign predicted victory. “Mary is on her way to a decisive victory, and there is not a viable path to reelection for Senator Sullivan,” the campaign said, according to Semafor’s Burgess Everett.
Trump has not let up. Forbes reported that he has called the race “voter fraud at the highest level” and said Peltola “should resign from the race” and be “prosecuted criminally.”
About 46,000 ballots are estimated to remain, and the Associated Press has not called the race.
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