GOP senator’s rival says win 'all but guaranteed' as brutal ballot counts come in: report

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) took a beating in Alaska’s latest ballot counts — and his Democratic challenger’s campaign said her victory was “all but guaranteed.”

Former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) held 49.2% of the vote to Sullivan’s 47% Friday morning, a 125,157-to-119,357 edge with 88% of ballots tallied, according to Newsweek.

Peltola’s team wasted no time claiming momentum.

“As more ballots get counted, it’s clear that Mary’s victory is all but guaranteed,” Cheryl Bruce, Peltola’s campaign manager, said in a statement to the outlet. “Mary won today’s ballot drop by a decisive margin.”

Sullivan’s trouble reached deep into GOP territory. In the conservative Mat-Su region, the senator outpaced Peltola by just 275 votes in Wednesday’s tally, 2,836 to 2,561. One analyst described that showing as “a very poor update for Sullivan.” Zachary Donnini, who leads data science at VoteHub, indicated the incumbent should have expected more.

The next batch of 5,678 votes was uglier still for Sullivan. Peltola came away with a net gain of 1,825.

To clear 50% outright and skip ranked-choice tabulation, Peltola would have to take about 56% of the roughly 35,000 votes left to count. Many of those uncounted ballots come from districts where she has run strong, while most of Sullivan’s best turf has already been counted, per Newsweek.

A ranked-choice count offers Sullivan little comfort. FairVote’s preliminary projection, released Thursday, had Peltola narrowly prevailing in the final round, 50.1% to 49.9%. Democrats have already secured 55 Senate seats and flipped eight, according to NBC News — the party’s biggest post-election majority since 2012.

President Donald Trump has branded the contest “rigged.” He alleged, without evidence, that the bid of Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired teacher who shares the incumbent’s name, was “done solely for the purpose of fraud and confusion.” A federal judge on Nov. 1 tossed a Justice Department lawsuit Trump ordered over confusion between the two Sullivans, and the administration is appealing.

State officials hope to certify the result by Nov. 25.