An analyst is warning Democrats that they can't get complacent after Democratic wins in elections last week — and that a backlash against President Donald Trump might not last.
In a column by Perry Bacon published Tuesday in The New Republic, the writer lays out the argument that Americans might be swayed toward the Democratic Party in response to Trump's policies and the candidates associated with them.
But there's a flipside, he said.
"There’s another possibility, one that’s great news for the Democrats in the short term but long-term bad for both Democratic and small-d democratic governance: Perhaps American voters these days are always just mad at whomever is in the White House and take it out on that person’s party, whether that’s a normal president pushing a logical, popular agenda (Barack Obama, Joe Biden) or a radical authoritarian who doesn’t care that most people hate his policies (Trump)," he wrote.
"So Democrats can’t assume everything is fine and back to normal because they won last week, and inflation and an 80-something president are no longer anchors on the party. They need to keep studying the changes in media and politics that keep making presidents unpopular, so the next Democratic commander in chief can avoid that fate."
It's up to Democrats to address how the "constant backlash against the president is driving election results" ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
He wrote how his Everyone Hates the President "EHTP theory" has several facets: He points to newly elected New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, and describes how he needs to control his own narrative and "understand his situation."
Democrats need to remember they don't have it all figured out and that there's still work to be done, he wrote.
"The Democratic Party can’t get fat and happy based on its wins last week, or even in 2026 and 2028, if they come," he wrote.
"Based on presidential hatred alone, there’s a good chance that Democrats will be in control of the House, Senate, and presidency in January 2029. (Assuming free, fair, and not super-gerrymandered elections.) And because basically all governors are popular and there is a large group of Democratic governors running for president, there’s a good chance that a Democratic governor who has been consistently popular in their state is in the Oval Office."
Democrats can't take solace in the fact that Americans have turned on Trump, and instead should turn their focus on "maintaining a true multicultural social democracy until a president who executes a normal agenda can stay popular."
"It’s great that there is a backlash to Trump. But it’s hard to tell if that’s a backlash to Trumpism—or just whoever is the current occupant of the White House," Bacon writes.