Pollster Nate Silver administers a dose of 'optimism' to despairing Dems

All hope for Democrats is not lost just yet, according to prominent statistician Nate Silver, who wrote a week after the 2024 elections that the moment feels reminiscent of the party’s mood in the aftermath of the 2004 election, and suggested that a Democratic Party comeback could be on the way.

"Something you probably weren't expecting from me ... a little bit of optimism for Democrats about 2026," Silver wrote on X on Tuesday afternoon.

He wrote in an article Tuesday, “It’s hard not to see the parallels between Bush’s win in 2004 and Donald Trump’s last week,” adding that this year's election was “a fairly ordinary election in many respects.”

“And what normally happens is the losing party rebounds — so there’s always the next cycle for Democrats to look forward to,” he wrote in his detailed analysis of the election night results, and what they mean for Democrats still reeling from the defeat.

He began by telling readers that former President George W. Bush’s second term “was a disaster” that “didn’t work out so badly for Democrats.” The party had a strong showing during the 2006 midterms, Silver noted, and two years later, saw Barack Obama sweep the Electoral College and popular vote to win the presidency in historic numbers.

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Like Bush, Trump is likely to be unpopular in his second term – and his “mostly likely successor,” vice president-elect Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), is also unpopular. Trump is also likely to have a challenging next four years, Silver wrote, adding that the incoming president will be “a few months older” than President Joe Biden was when he took office.

But, Silver acknowledged, he “wouldn’t count on this being a happy time for Democrats.”

“Trump has a lot of unchecked power and a 6-3 Supreme Court majority. But electorally speaking, these are the seeds out of which comebacks are made, and there’s a good chance that Trump is another octogenarian who overreads his mandate and overreaches in all sorts of ways,” he wrote.

Silver predicted that there’s still a path back for Democrats in the Senate and House as well, and added that the party will “get a relatively fair shake in 2026 and 2028.”