Donald Trump could be setting up congressional Republicans for an early failure by going for a big legislative victory right out of the gate.
The president-elect is pushing for one "powerful" reconciliation bill combining his biggest priorities to make sweeping changes to fiscal policy by using special rules regarding economic legislation that requires only half the Senate's approval and would not be subject to a Democratic filibuster, but Washington Post analyst Aaron Blake is doubting its passage.
"Trump wants such a single bill to include a multitude of items: border security, energy, extending his tax cuts from his first term, eliminating taxes on tips and possibly taking the debt ceiling off the table," Blake wrote. "The problem is that history suggests that the GOP could struggle to pass any of these items on their own; packaging them all together could give plenty in their party reason to view the final product as not nice enough, because of how much it spends or because there will be something they abhor. And procedural hurdles loom that could pit Trump against leaders of his party."
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Republicans can afford to lose only one GOP vote if every Democrat votes in opposition. They have fallen short of unanimity on each of those issues in recent years, and Trump's proposals to eliminate taxes on tips and eliminate the debt ceiling could make it nearly impossible to achieve unanimous support.
"The shape of those tariffs is to be determined, with conflicting signals about how far they’ll go and how much revenue they might generate," Blake wrote. "Regardless of what happens, the amount of revenue the tariffs would generate would be uncertain, posing a dilemma for budget-conscious Republicans who might not like the tariffs in the first place and who worry about whether to trust that Trump won’t just balloon the national debt (again)."
The reconciliation process limits bills to spending, revenue and the debt limit. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has indicated Republicans would not seek to override rulings by the Senate parliamentarian to keep those limits in place over Trump's proposed bill.
"In sum: Pitfalls abound," Blake concluded. "And having someone in Trump who doesn’t have much regard for them leading such a huge, all-encompassing effort would not seem an ideal circumstance for Republicans who want to get big things done with their newfound control of Washington."