U.S. intelligence assessments are painting a starkly different picture of Iran's military recovery than the one presented by American commanders, raising questions about the lasting impact of the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign against Tehran.
CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper testified before the House Armed Services Committee on Tuesday that Operation Epic Fury had destroyed 90 percent of Iran's defense industrial base and ensured Iran "cannot reconstitute for years," but four sources familiar with U.S. intelligence assessments told CNN that the underlying intelligence tells a different story — one in which Iran is rebuilding far faster than initially expected.
"The Iranians have exceeded all timelines the IC had for reconstitution," one U.S. official told CNN.
Iran has already restarted some drone production during the six-week ceasefire that began in early April. Some intelligence estimates suggest Iran could fully restore its drone attack capability within as little as six months, and two sources said China has continued supplying Iran with missile components during the conflict, though that flow has likely been slowed by a U.S. naval blockade.
U.S. and Israeli strikes did not inflict as much damage as the two countries had hoped, according to one source. A recent intelligence assessment found that roughly two-thirds of Iran's missile launchers survived the strikes — up from an earlier estimate of about half — partly because the ceasefire gave Iran time to unearth launchers buried but not destroyed by previous attacks. Thousands of Iranian drones remain operational, representing approximately half of its pre-war drone capabilities.
The discrepancy between Cooper's testimony and the intelligence assessments is significant, given that President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to resume bombing if nuclear talks collapse, meaning Iran's rebuilt capabilities could quickly factor into renewed hostilities.
One source told CNN that damage to Iran's defense industrial base has likely set back reconstitution by months, not years — and that portions of that base remain intact, potentially accelerating Iran's recovery timeline even further.
The Pentagon declined to comment on intelligence matters.