Vice President JD Vance blamed the Republican Party’s midterm wipeout on the war in Iran on Wednesday morning, setting off a fight on the right over who’s responsible and what comes next.
“The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night,” Vance wrote on X. “If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost.”
In the lengthy post, Vance said Republican voters showed up, but many of them didn’t vote Republican.
“The main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026,” he wrote.
He cited an unnamed pollster who he said had predicted Republicans would lose the generic ballot by 13 points. According to Vance, that pollster asked Trump voters who had defected what would bring them back. “The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were,” Vance wrote: “1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel.”
Vance also defended Fox News host Rachel Campos-Duffy, who had been criticized for calling for a diplomatic end to the conflict, saying “her political advice was sound.” He warned that “establishment politicians” would push amnesty for undocumented immigrants as the fix. “Anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you,” he wrote.
“To the people who are pissed off and want to say, ‘I told you so’: you’re right, you did tell us so,” Vance added.
Voices on the right were quick to point out whose war it is.
“This is quite an incredible admission. But the one to blame for the war is Trump. So...?” wrote Keith Woods, a right-wing YouTuber.
Conservative investor James Fishback quoted Vance’s lines on the war and Israel and added, “Yes. Now you and your boss do something about it.”
Others mocked Vance for fixating on Israel. Conservative activist Sloan Rachmuth wrote, “JD Vance asked Tucker Carlson why Republicans lost. His answer? Iran war. U.S. relationship with Israel,” followed by a row of clown emojis.
Conservative commentator Erick Erickson zeroed in on what Vance left out. “Iran and Israel. Not tariffs. Not corruption. Hmmmm,” he wrote.
“Breaking Points” co-host Saagar Enjeti simply quoted Vance: “The reason we lost is the war.”
Observers outside MAGA saw the post as a shot across the bow in the 2028 race.
“Vance more or less laying the stakes for 2028 saying Iran is why Republicans lost. Over to you Marco, Hegseth, etc..,” wrote Sam Stein, managing editor of The Bulwark, referring to Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
Writer Derek Thompson annotated Vance’s list: “1. End the war (that his admin started) 2. Focus on cost of living (which he exacerbated with the war and tariffs) 3. Change our relationship to Israel (which has been defined by Trump’s embrace of Bibi, up to and including going to war for him).”
Journalist Glenn Greenwald noted it was “a war that Vance -- regardless of what he claims he did in private -- has been publicly defending and justifying.”
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, which advocates for military restraint, put it more bluntly: “Holy s---! Read Vance’s entire tweet.”
Iran and Israel.Not tariffs. Not corruption. Hmmmm.
— Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) November 4, 2026