Trump could ruin GOP chances of flipping scandal-plagued Democrat's seat: insiders

New Jersey Republicans are hoping to capitalize on Sen. Bob Menendez's (D-NJ) criminal trial to flip the seat long held by Democrats, but Donald Trump may sink their chances.

Christine Serrano Glassner has the former president's endorsement in the June 4 primary, while the more moderate Curtis Bashaw has thrown his support behind Trump in the 2024 race, but Republican strategists questioned the wisdom of making the deeply unpopular presumptive GOP nominee a campaign issue in a statewide Senate race, reported Politico.

“It’s difficult to do, but the math is simple: You need to win more than two thirds of independents," said GOP strategist Mike DuHaime, an adviser to the Bashaw campaign. “You have to be bigger than the national brand, you have to have to be a little bit more local, and if it’s just a typical Democrat versus a typical Republican, you don’t win."

Trump-backed candidates have lost in last year's Kentucky gubernatorial race and two years ago in the Pennsylvania Senate election, and another longtime Republican strategist agreed that making him the focal point in a general election was a recipe for losing.

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“Anytime that a Republican in New Jersey gets into a position where they are identified solely by the national brand, it just doesn’t go well," said veteran GOP strategist Chris Russell, who's not affiliated with either campaign.

Menendez is currently on trial for bribery and won re-election in 2018 despite corruption charges, but he's sitting out this Democratic primary but may run as an independent, and Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ) has built up a $7 million war chest against his potential GOP challengers Bashaw, who has $1.1 million, and Serrano Glassner, who has just $400,000.

Both Bashaw and Serrano Glassner are polling far behind Kim in a general election matchup, but that lead would likely narrow if Menendez mounts an independent campaign, but political experts aren't sure a Republican could win in New Jersey, where Biden is again expected to easily defeat Trump.

“I have a hard time seeing that a voter would vote for Biden and then, especially given the incredibly slim majority, would vote for a Republican senator,” said Jessica Taylor, the senate and governors editor of the Cook Political Report.