Red herring: Why Trump wrongly blames a fish for LA wildfires

by Manon Jacob and Issam Ahmed

Donald Trump has derided the Delta smelt as a "worthless fish," blaming efforts to protect the species for the devastating Los Angeles wildfires on social media, in a press conference, and even a White House order.

In reality, California's Delta smelt has minimal connection to the city's water supply, say experts, who argue the US president's willingness to condemn an endangered species reflects the chaotic and shortsighted nature of his environmental policies.

"It's scapegoating an internal enemy that's supposed to be responsible for all our problems, in this case, fires and drought -- and directing everybody's anger toward that," John Buse, general counsel for the Center for Biological Diversity, told AFP.

It is a "classic authoritarian" move, he argues -- and a likely harbinger of what we will see under Trump 2.0.

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Trump's assertion, first made on Truth Social, claimed that Governor Gavin Newsom's failure to sign an order allowing millions of gallons of water from excess rain and snowmelt to flow southward from the state's north had hampered firefighting efforts.

He reiterated the accusation in a Day One executive order dramatically titled "Putting People Over Fish: Stopping Radical Environmentalism to Provide Water to Southern California."

- Real crisis, wrong culprit -

California has a complex water crisis -- with climate change an outsized factor.

But the Delta smelt -- a small, translucent fish considered a "sentinel" species that indicates the health of its Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta habitat -- is not a culprit.

"It was once one of the most abundant fish in the upper estuary, supporting a diverse array of predators including striped bass," said Peter Moyle, a University of California, Davis ichthyologist widely regarded as the leading expert on the species.

However, habitat degradation caused by water diversions for agriculture and urban use, competition and predation by invasive species, exposure to contaminants, and dwindling food sources led to the Delta smelt being listed as "threatened" in 1993, and "endangered" by California in 2009.

Water projects in The Golden State must balance conservation with meeting agricultural and urban demands.

Trump's rhetoric has nationalized what was previously a Californian political narrative pitting fish against farmers, leaving the Delta smelt a convenient "scape fish," according to Moyle.

Massive federal- and state-run pumping stations redirect water from northern areas to the south, creating challenges for the smelt and other aquatic life.

Increased salinity from these pumping operations harms the fish, and many are killed when they are sucked into screens or diverted into canals.

- Culture war politics -

Despite Trump's claims, however, protections that limit the amount of pumping for the Delta smelt and other fish have had minimal recent impact on the Los Angeles water supply.

The federal Central Valley Project, which Trump has targeted under his order, primarily serves agriculture in Central California -- not Los Angeles, explains Buse.

While the State Water Project does supply water to Southern California, including Los Angeles, most of the state's major reservoirs are currently at or above historic levels for this time of year, particularly in the south, official data shows.

Even in drier years, protections for the Delta smelt account for only a small fraction of reductions in outflow.

The primary factor determining water pumped downstream is the amount of rainfall and snowmelt flowing into the San Francisco estuary.

As Moyle explained in a 2017 paper, the same saltwater that harms the fish also poses significant challenges for agriculture, making it the key driver of restrictions on water exports.

The Delta smelt's legal protection "has been particularly controversial because right-wing pundits and politicians have seized on its small size," said Caleb Scoville, a sociologist at Tufts University. "Salmon aren't as easy of a target."

Rather than addressing the root causes of California's water challenges -- including climate change -- Trump's rhetoric turns "hardships associated with environmental destabilization into partisan gotchas," Scoville argued.

"It feeds us-versus-them identity politics but doesn't actually hold power to account."