Donald Trump will cross the 100-day threshold for his second presidency next week and, if history is a guide, his honeymoon period could soon come to an end.
The president has worked quickly to dismantle chunks of the federal government, unraveled post-World War II military and economic alliances and upended global trade networks. His approval ratings are already falling before the public even feels the impact of his sweeping tariffs, wrote former Bill Clinton adviser Doug Sosnick for the New York Times.
"A consequential start does not in any way equate to long-term success," wrote Sosnick, who advised Clinton from 1994 to 2000 and has also worked with more than 50 governors and U.S. senators. "Mr. Trump’s approval ratings are already falling, and if past presidencies are any guide, the worst is yet to come.
"Now as in 2017, he is the only modern president to have a net negative approval rating at this point in his term. And as more and more Americans begin to feel the pain of his policies, we may well look back on his first 100 days as the prelude to a historically unpopular presidency."
Sosnick said approval ratings tend to settle into their true value by early September of their first year, pointing to 11-point declines for both Clinton and George W. Bush at that point, while Barack Obama's popularity dropped 15 points and Trump's fell by five points in his first term.
"Joe Biden, the only one of these presidents not elected to a second term, had a 57 percent job approval rating as he approached his 100th day in office," Sosnick wrote. "By early September, however, it was down to 43 percent, in large part because of his premature claims of COVID’s defeat, the botched withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan and a surge in inflation. Growing concerns about his fitness for office ensured his job approval never recovered, forcing him to withdraw from the general election 107 days before Election Day."
"Mr. Trump will probably be subject to the same laws of political gravity," Sosnick added, "but he risks an even steeper fall in job approval by early September because of a combination of factors, some of which he shares with his predecessors and some of which are unique to his presidency."
Trump seems to be overreading his mandate from voters, Sosnick wrote, and that poses a political threat to his presidency.
"What is different about Mr. Trump’s presidency this time around, and what makes him even more politically vulnerable, is that the current Republican-controlled Congress has subjugated its role as an independent branch of government to the executive, which has allowed him to pursue his most extreme appointments and policy positions," Sosnick added.
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"What’s more, Mr. Trump has fallen into the trap — common for newly elected presidents — of not understanding the difference between the spectacle of campaigning and the work of successful governing," he added. "The failure to properly plan and execute policy has defined his second term, epitomized by the shambolic rollout of his immigration and tariff initiatives and the so-called Department of Government Efficiency. The uncertainty created by Mr. Trump’s chaotic style of governing has also made it impossible for companies to make investment decisions."
All of those factors will likely drag him down politically, as well as his enduringly strong opposition and the coming consequences to his tariffs and government cuts.
"Mr. Trump campaigned on bold promises to end inflation, to make America affordable again by bringing down the price of all goods and to usher in a 'golden age of America' starting on Day 1," Sosnick wrote. "It will take about 230 days, not 100, to get a clear picture of whether the country believes he is delivering. While only a fool would make predictions in this volatile political environment, we can be certain that by the beginning of September, Mr. Trump will no longer be able to blame Mr. Biden for his troubles; he will own, for better or worse, the state of the country."