Trump-backed Dan Sullivan threatened by brutal ballot twist buried in data: NYT

A twist hidden in ballot records is threatening to sink a Senate Republican whom President Donald Trump has spent months trying to rescue.

Voters who backed doppelganger Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired schoolteacher, in Alaska's Senate race mostly picked Democrat Mary Peltola, not incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan (R-AK), as their next choice, according to a New York Times analysis published Thursday. The finding suggests Peltola is on track to take the seat.

Peltola holds a lead of less than a percentage point with roughly three-quarters of the vote counted, according to Associated Press figures cited by The Times. Her edge is expected to grow once about 60,000 outstanding ballots, most of them cast by mail, are tallied in the coming days.

If no candidate clears 50 percent, the race moves to ranked-choice tabulation on Nov. 18. The Times found that step would likely net the incumbent less than half a point, not nearly enough to close the gap.

The surprise centers on Sullivan Jr., a candidate The Times reported last week had been recruited by Peltola allies to draw votes away from the senator. Trump seized on the scheme, insisting on Truth Social that Sullivan Jr.'s ballots "should be immediately given to the REAL Dan Sullivan" and ordering the Justice Department to investigate Peltola's campaign.

But the ballot data undercuts the idea that those voters meant to support the senator. Roughly two-thirds of them ranked a second candidate, and Peltola came out well ahead of the incumbent among that group. Voters who ranked the senator first, by contrast, almost never listed Peltola second.

The Times calculated that even if every Sullivan Jr. voter who skipped a second choice had secretly intended to back the incumbent, he would only pick up about one point in margin. That still falls short of the gains Peltola is expected to make from the remaining mail ballots.

The analysis also leaves out about 10,000 hand-counted ballots, largely from rural areas where Peltola has run strong, meaning her position could be even sturdier than the numbers show.