On Saturday's edition of CNN's "Smerconish," American University history professor Allan Lichtman, whose election-modeling system based on 13 "key" factors predicted President Donald Trump's win in 2016 and now predicts former Vice President Joe Biden will defeat him, discussed the two possible ways he believes — contrary to his model — that Trump could potentially turn things around and manage a victory.
"The keys are in granite. He has seven keys against him. It takes six to predict the loss of the incumbent White House party," said Lichtman. "However, there are two things outside the realm of the keys or any prediction system, Michael, that keep me up at night."
"One is voter suppression," said Lichtman. "Look, Trump depends on old white guys like me. Can't manufacture more old white guys. That's the most shrinking part of the electorate. But you can try to make it hard for the rising Democratic base of minorities and young people. We heard your earlier speaker [Trump campaign official Hogan Gidley], who is sowing fear and confusion. But, Michael, he never answered your question about what the Trump administration is doing, if anything, to make this a full and fair vote."
"Second thing that keeps me up at night is Russian intervention," said Lichtman. "We know they're back. They learned a lot in four years. They may even try to get into the registration rolls this time. We know for certain, just as in 2016, Donald Trump will welcome and exploit any Russian intervention on his behalf. So the keys are set. We live in such an uncertain world. There's an old Chinese saying, some call it a curse: 'May you live in interesting times.'"
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