Allan Lichtman, a political historian who teaches at American University in Washington, D.C., became famous for correctly predicting President Donald Trump’s upset win four years ago.
But in a new interview with The New York Times, Lichtman makes the case that Trump appears very unlikely to win a second term as the country has been racked for months by the coronavirus pandemic, high unemployment, and civil unrest.
Lichtman goes through multiple factors that he says are “keys” to predicting outcomes of presidential races, including the fact that Trump’s party lost the House of Representatives in 2018, the economy has entered into a recession, and there has been “considerable” social unrest over the past three months.
While the president does have some things going in his favor, including the avoidance of major foreign policy disasters and having an opponent who is not particularly charismatic, Lichtman argues that those aren’t enough to outweigh the other hurdles the president is facing.
“The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House,” he said.
Watch the video below.
CNN presents damning list of all the times Trump has refused to accept election results
President Donald Trump triggered outrage at his Wednesday press briefing for refusing to commit to a peaceful transition of power.
But his attitude is nothing new, wrote Kevin Liptak for CNN, who listed all the times in the last few months Trump has expressed similar sentiments.
On July 19, for instance, Trump told Fox News Sunday, "I'm not going to just say 'yes'" when asked if he'll accept the election results. On July 30, he tweeted that mail ballots are "INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT" and suggested "Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote." On August 17 at a rally, he suggested staying in office beyond two terms, saying "we'll go for another four years because they spied on my campaign. We should get a redo of four years." Three days later, at another rally, he said of Democrats, "they're trying to steal the election, and everybody knows that. Because the only way they're going to win is by a rigged election."
McConnell’s re-election campaign slapped with FEC flag over suspected accounting errors
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) re-election campaign is facing scrutiny from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) and he is now being required to answer questions regarding suspected accounting errors.
The letter and a 60-page report, written by FEC campaign analyst Susan Worthington to McConnell’s Senate Committee, were sent to McConnell’s campaign treasurer, Larry J. Steinberg on Monday. The committee pointed out “Apparent Excessive, Prohibited, and Impermissible Contributions” regarding donations recorded in McConnell’s July quarterly report that suggests multiple contributions may have exceeded the legal limits.
Fox News analyst slams Trump for visit to Ginsburg’s casket: ‘Maybe it’s to get the boos’
Fox News analyst Chris Stirewalt was bewildered on Thursday after President Donald Trump showed up at the Supreme Court to pay his respects to former Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
As Trump appeared next to Ginsburg's casket, the crowd could be heard jeering the president.
"I don't know why he went," a confused Stirewalt said. "He didn't go to John Lewis' memoriam. He wasn't there for that stuff. And for good reason. Right? These people don't want him there. Ruth Bader Ginsburg's folks don't want him there. It's going to be an ugly scene."
"I guess, he's the president. He can go where ever he wants," the Fox News contributor added. "And he has security so that he can go do it. But you just wonder what the political calculation was here in going to a place where you know you will be received poorly, going to a place where you know the folks there don't want you to be."