President Donald Trump’s grip on congressional Republicans could face its toughest test yet if the party loses one or both chambers on Tuesday, according to GOP lawmakers.
Many of the 15 Republican lawmakers interviewed by Politico, most of whom were granted anonymity to speak frankly, said Trump may need to start putting in more effort in setting the GOP agenda than firing off Truth Social posts and late-night phone calls.
“He’s in trouble,” one GOP senator said, pointing to the party’s vulnerable candidates and the incumbents who have broken with Trump over the Iran war.
“It’s not like his persuasion is growing,” another Republican senator said. “Political capital is earned and lost the same way.”
Senators are especially well positioned to break away. Only about a third of sitting GOP senators will face voters again while Trump is still in office. The rest are up in 2030 and 2032, after he’s gone.
House Republicans also signaled the dynamic would change after the election. One said that if Democrats win a narrow majority, Trump will “still carry a lot of sway.” But if there's a “shellacking,” the lawmaker said, Trump would be “looking for our help more than we’d be looking for his.”
“If it’s truly a big blue wave, every committee will investigate the hell out of him the next two years and R’s will quickly start looking at [2028] and beyond,” the member added in a text message.
Another House Republican raised the question of who takes the fall. “No one expects Trump to take any blame after the election,” the lawmaker said. “So if he doesn’t, who does?”
Some conservatives are privately asking whether Trump will blame Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) if Republicans lose control of the chamber. But GOP senators widely expect Thune to keep his job even if Trump turns on him. One senator said it was “absolutely the case” he would survive.
Trump’s influence faces quick tests after Election Day. The House is expected to vote soon after it returns on impeaching Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and some Republicans said colleagues could back the measure if voters deliver a wipeout. Lame-duck lawmakers may also have little reason to rally behind a final party-line spending push.
Not everyone is ready to write Trump off. Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso said Trump is “going to continue fully engaged … regardless of the outcome.” Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-PA) was more noncommittal: “We’ll see.”
Republicans have predicted Trump’s decline before. Many turned on him after the Jan. 6 attack and later fell back in line.