Virginia’s special elections test party strength before 2025 governor’s race

With Republicans poised to take control of Congress and the White House, Tuesday’s special elections in Virginia’s General Assembly mark the first test of sentiment since the Nov. 5 general election. The contests could either reinforce Democratic majorities in the state legislature or signal a shift toward GOP momentum ahead of the state’s high profile 2025 gubernatorial race.

In the 32 House District, Del. Kannan Srinivasan, D-Loudoun is vying to retain the seat for Democrats against Republican Tumay Harding after U.S. Rep.-elect Suhas Subramanyam’s move to Congress created the vacancy. Meanwhile, in the 26th District, Democrat J.J. Singh faces Republican Ram Venkatachalam to fill Srinivasan’s former seat. Both contests have drawn national interest, with Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee investments highlighting their significance.

In the Republican-leaning 10th Senate District, Democrat Jack Trammell takes on GOP nominee Luther Cifers in a race to succeed former state Sen. John McGuire, R-Goochland, who was elected to U.S. Congress. With over 60% of voters in the district backing President-elect Donald Trump and nearly 70% backing Gov. Glenn Youngkin in past elections, Cifers enters as a favorite in the GOP stronghold.

With a $2 billion surplus on the table, Virginia lawmakers are weighing how to allocate the funds and where they might find common ground. Democrats are prioritizing K-12 education funding, while both parties have expressed interest in tax relief for workers as part of the upcoming budget negotiations.

Reproductive rights have emerged as a key issue in the special elections. Democratic candidates Srinivasan and Singh have pledged to defend abortion access, while Republican Venkatachalam has not clarified his position. Harding, his GOP counterpart, noted that most late-term abortions are already prohibited and supports policies to reduce the need for abortions while stating on her website that life “begins at conception.”

In the 10th District, Democrat Trammell backs a proposed constitutional amendment to protect abortion rights, whereas Republican Cifers takes a “no exceptions” stance opposing abortion.

Democratic control of Virginia’s legislature is seen as key to advancing the constitutional amendment. Holding majorities in both chambers would give Democrats a stronger platform to push the measure forward.

While abortion isn’t strictly partisan, it has largely divided Virginia lawmakers along party lines. In the 2023 elections, many Republicans supported Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s proposal to ban most abortions after 15 weeks, while Democrats campaigned on preserving current laws and ultimately enshrining abortion rights in the state’s Constitution.

With Trump returning to the White House later this month, states with broad reproductive rights protections are introducing measures to fortify them in case the incoming Republican administration rolls back federal protections enacted under President Joe Biden. Meanwhile, states with strict bans are advancing fetal personhood bills, abortion pill limits, and other restrictions.

Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned federal protections in 2022, abortion has remained a defining issue in state and national politics.