Trump's rats just realized their golden pardons are poison
An assumption is floating around the electric internet that President Donald Trump doesn't worry much about his support in the heartland because he'll do what he does without regard to what people think, and he'll keep getting away with it as he always has. The view does carry some legitimacy. After all, in the last 150 years, there have only been three men who have carried out major terrorist attacks against the United States government: Osama Bin Laden, Timothy McVeigh, and Donald Trump. Two on the list are dead; the other is president.
Safe to say, he gets away with a lot. The cool kidz on the Left will be the first to say that any or all action to fight this is pointless until he dies. But they're wrong.
History does show absolute dictators can reign into perpetuity without significant public support, Stalin and the North Koreans being the most prominent examples. But it's a much tougher trick to pull in the United States. Oh, and plenty of other seemingly insurmountable strongmen have fallen, too. Things change.
In March, this column began predicting the outlines of Trump's coming political demise. Understandably, many readers scoffed at the idea, primarily because there has been a nearly permanent expectation since 2017 that a scandal would erupt that even Trump couldn't contain and he'd fall within about three weeks, same as any other president with a similar scandal.
But that is not what was predicted.
Instead, one had to look at three things coming together at a particularly bad time, just short of the midterms. One, he already faced a tough economy, and scandals are far, far harder to endure when Americans are fuming about money. Second, he started the all-but-mandated Republican war in the Middle East without convincing anyone it was needed and without a plan to actually "win." And three, some people started to notice: "Hey? It kinda looks like this guy may be in it for the money."
No one likes feeling played.
Much more importantly, as noted time and again, nothing with Trump would happen overnight or even over a month. This would be a drip, drip, drip thing. And yet we're not here to analyze the next major poll proving the same, though they do; this is about the fallout from diving poll numbers leading to a problem that most certainly has brought down some of history's strongest strongmen - a staff that may be turning on him.
Time and again, one had to acknowledge that devastating division seemed impossible due to Chief of Staff Susie Wiles's deft practice of the political dark arts. She knew that a White House divided against itself cannot stand. Well, get ready for some division (And you were told there'd be no math), because the brats aren't just abandoning ship; they're trying to "talk" their way into lifeboats.
Talk in this context means "leak," how appropriate, keeps the boat analogy going.
The most devastating yet came just this last week. As noted on this website, a senior official described as “close to Trump," someone in a position “of influence,” revealed that even those helming the bridge of the S.S. Trump are worried he's sinking to numbers lower than Natalie Harp's age. Said the source:
“He keeps saying he doesn’t want to become Herbert Hoover but then can’t stop acting like he wants to be Herbert Hoover. He really could sink to the high 20s, I think. I would not have thought that last year.”
The official then laughed and noted they needed anonymity or a trip to Siberia was in play. How funny. Glad the staff can morbidly enjoy the Putinesque aura; a whole lot of grandparent immigrants who've been here fifty years are now in a gulag themselves, and they don't find Trump's fascist tendencies funny.
How high was this source? Very, very high. Because as the original author, Zeteo’s Asawin Suebsaeng, noted: “I was genuinely surprised they’d cop to it! Despite his fascistic bullyboy tactics, this president is in a uniquely vulnerable position, and [they] need to be ready for that dam to finally break.”
Note the language. One doesn't get that superfalous over a frustrated whine by a deputy press secretary in passing on the way home, or likely even the press secretary who is really on her way home. No, no. Just guessing here, but that kind of verbal bouquet only comes in response to maybe a communications director, maybe a cabinet member, maybe even a very frustrated chief of staff. Put it this way, Trump has finally jumped the Overton window of someone very close to him.
But the identity of the source matters less than the message. His inner circle realizes something needs to change fast, or they are headed to the high 20s - a number discussed here many times as equating to big trouble. Falling below one in three Americans symbolizes something important. Trump's approval rating was at 29% in the weeks after January 6th, back when nearly everyone hated him, feared COVID, and worried about the country. Remember the vibe then? It is that bad.
Yes, but what does all this mean? Someone might ask. He is still going to interfere with the election. Still going to do what he wants to do. True, at least he's going to try.
But this strong a signal sure makes it easier for Democrats to win in a manner too big for him to rig. For sure, he might still just ignore Congress and tell everyone in the administration to ignore all subpoenas. He does not plan on letting "just a bunch of Democrat congress people" investigate him.
Except that doesn't work quite as well if you're polling in the high 20s. Indeed, that's a fast way to look worse and fall further. This is especially true if and when the GOP senses, "Even if this guy did still run again, or try to cancel the 2028 election somehow, he's not going to get away with it, making him the loudest, lamest quacking duck of all time." And for once, for once, Trump might have to answer to some Republicans in Congress.
After all, there's nothing indicating anything will get any better any time soon. Tax cuts for the rich don't work for the economy, never have, even if he gets out of the war, which he won't. And remember that third thing? The one about, "this guy looks like he's just in it for the money." If anything, that's only accelerating, and people in Congress and on the Right are now acting like they're just starting to notice. Just wait until those same folks begin to realize that it's the next administration that can hurt them far more than this one, in any number of investigative ways.
The GOP has done everything it can to ensure permanent governance in Washington. And yet, as regular as a war in the Middle East, they've also driven the economy into the ground. (Remember "W's" last two years?) They've driven it into the ground before the stock market craters, propped up almost solely by big tech and their damned datacenters. They've driven it into the ground before the really bad job numbers start to roll in as AI comes to a workplace near you, hopefully not on you. They have driven it down no matter how much they blame Joe Biden.
And up with that, America will not put.
That kind of economic climate is the type that drives Americans toward hope and change. And it gets even a bit worse this time; Americans won't want any "President Obama Mr. Nice Guy" stuff. Whether it is Newsom, Buttigieg, Beshear, AOC, or someone we've never heard of, the charge will be to clean it up, all of it, and Republicans know it. And many of them have gotten in while the gettin' was real good.
Something else is going to dawn on them, too, as numbers slide toward the high 20s and the White House cracks. Trump cannot simply pardon "Everyone that ever worked for me, voted for me, or said nice things about me."
There is no way the country is going to let Trump have a free runaround all the crimes eventually uncovered.
With each vague 'en masse pardon, the more fraudulent they all look, and the more prosecutors and courts might feel free to intervene somehow: perhaps state charges, perhaps something more complex. Republicans have most certainly had this thought in the back of their pointy heads for a while; it is just that they've never been bitten by betting on Trump. Not yet.
But the dynamic has never been tested when polling near Hooverville, below January 6th levels. As noted way back in March, the numbers matter; Republicans know it. Apparently, even the White House knows it. We do have tangible evidence; we are increasingly getting leaks that matter, more people are leaving, fewer are listening, and soon, far fewer Republicans will fear him.
It was never going to happen over three weeks, no matter how well-deserved. It was always going to be drip by drip. Feel free to take some comfort in the fact that it appears as though Trump seems to appreciate that the drip absolutely matters. Playing the role of Herbert Hoover fits: uncaring, sure of himself, Republican, and full steam ahead, iceberg be damned. He can't help himself. Never could.
Soon, no one else can or will, either.
Jason Miciak is a Raw Story Columnist, past editor at Occupy Democrats, author, political consultant, and attorney. He is also available for public speaking. Please follow on Bluesky. He can be reached at jasonmiciak@gmail.com.
