Just one in three people live a nation that guarantees the independence of universities and research, according to an annual index warning that academic freedom is declining worldwide, particularly in Russia, China and India.
Attacks on freedom of expression, interference at universities and the imprisonment of researchers are just some ways that "academic freedom globally is under threat," the index said.
The Academic Freedom Index -- based on input from more than 2,300 experts in 179 countries -- was published last month as part of a report on democracy by the V-Dem Institute at Sweden's University of Gothenburg.
It measures changes in higher education and research over the last half century by looking at five different indicators: freedom of research and teaching; of academic exchange; of academic and cultural expression; of institutional autonomy and campus integrity.
Katrin Kinzelbach, professor at Germany's University of Erlangen-Nuremberg and one of the organizers of the index, told AFP that 171 states have ratified a human rights treaty which commits them to respect the freedom of scientific research.
But because of recent "significant deteriorations" in countries with large populations, "only every third person in the world today lives in a country where research and higher education enjoys a high degree of freedom," she said.
Accounting for the world's growing population, the proportion of people living in nations with academic freedom is comparable to 1973, she added.
"Now, 45.5 percent of the world's population -- 3.6 billion people -- live in 27 countries where academic freedom is completely restricted," the report said.
'From bad to worse'
Significant declines were particularly seen in India, China and Russia -- the first, second and ninth most populous nations -- which Kinzelbach called "clear examples of autocratisation".
"Academic freedom has fallen dramatically" in India since Prime Minister Narendra Modi took power in 2014, she said.
Kinzelbach cited the example of British-Indian academic Nitasha Kaul, a politics professor at the UK's University of Westminster denied entry to India for a conference last month.
In Russia and China, "academic freedom was never great, and it has now deteriorated from bad to worse," Kinzelbach said.
Perhaps more surprisingly, the index found academic freedom had also fallen in the United States since 2019, which Kinzelbach called "a shock for many academics".
She emphasised both society and the political system in the US were "highly polarised".
"University campuses have become arenas where this polarisation unfolds," she said, calling for "calm, evidence-based debates on campus -- including about highly divisive issues."
Most European countries had very high academic freedom according to the index, with Hungary scoring the lowest rate followed by Poland.
However Kinzelbach said Poland's score will likely improve under the new government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
A drug used to treat diabetes slowed the progression of motor issues associated with Parkinson's disease, a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine said Wednesday.
Parkinson's is a devastating nervous system disorder affecting 10 million people worldwide, with no current cure. Symptoms include rhythmic shaking known as tremors, slowed movement, impaired speech and problems balancing, which get worse over time.
Researchers have been interested in exploring a class of drugs called GLP-1 receptor agonists -- which mimic a gut hormone and are commonly used to treat diabetes and obesity -- for their potential to protect neurons.
So far however, evidence of clinical benefits in patients has been limited and early studies have proved inconclusive.
In the new paper, 156 patients with early-stage Parkinson's were recruited across France and then randomly chosen to receive either lixisenatide, which is sold under the brand names Adlyxin and Lyxumia and made by Sanofi, or a placebo.
After one year of follow up, the group on the treatment, which is given as an injection, saw no worsening of their movement symptoms, while those on the placebo did.
The effect was "modest" according to the paper, and was noticeable only when assessed by professionals "who made them do tasks; walking, standing up, moving their hands, etc" senior author Olivier Rascol, a neurologist at Toulouse University, told AFP.
But, he added, this may just be because Parkinson's disease worsens slowly, and with another year of follow up, the differences might become much starker.
"This is the first time that we have clear results, which demonstrate that we had an impact on the progression of the symptoms of the disease and that we explain it by a neuroprotective effect," said Rascol.
- Gastro side effects -
Gastrointestinal side effects were common on the drug and included nausea, vomiting and reflux, while a handful of patients experienced weight loss.
Both Rasol and co-author Wassilios Meissner, a neurologist at Bordeaux University Hospital, both stressed more study would be required to confirm safety and efficacy before the treatment should be given to patients.
Michael Okun, medical director of the Parkinson's Foundation, told AFP that from a practical standpoint, the differences in patient outcomes were not clinically significant, but "statistically and compared to other studies, this type of difference should draw our interest and attention."
"Experts will likely argue whether this study meets a minimum threshold for neuroprotection, and it likely does not," continued Okun, adding the weight loss side effect was concerning for Parkinson's patients.
Rodolfo Savica, a professor of neurology at the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota added: "The data so far are suggestive of a possible effect -- but we need to replicate the study for sure."
He added that, while this study lumped together patients aged 40-75, separating them by age group might have revealed ages at which the treatment is more effective.
The authors of the new study said they were looking forward to the results from other forthcoming trials that may help confirm their findings.
Three companies are in the running to provide NASA's next Moon rover for crewed missions planned later this decade, the space agency said Wednesday.
Texas-based Intuitive Machines -- which landed a robot near the lunar south pole in February -- Lunar Outpost of Colorado and Venturi Astrolab of California have been tasked with developing designs under a contract with a combined maximum potential value of $4.6 billion.
The US space agency anticipates awarding one of the three companies a "demonstration task order" -- meaning a test run for their Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV), on the surface of the Moon, prior to the arrival of crew for the Artemis 5 mission that is currently set for 2030, according to NASA's latest budget request.
"We are building up the capabilities needed to establish a longer-term exploration and presence of the Moon," Jacob Bleacher, NASA's chief exploration scientist told reporters. "I like to imagine the views and the vistas that the LTV will enable us to see from the surface of the Moon."
Although the contracts went to relatively new companies, they have partnered with more established players in the aerospace industry. Intuitive Machines said it had been given an initial $30 million to advance its prototype, called the Reusable Autonomous Crewed Exploration Rover (RACER), with teammates including AVL, Boeing, Michelin and Northrop Grumman.
- Built to withstand temperature extremes -
Astrolab said its contract could be "worth up to $1.9 billion" -- though didn't mention what amount it was given initially -- for its Flexible Logistics and Exploration (FLEX) rover, which it is building along with Axiom Space and Odyssey Space Research. An initial design of its rover was showcased in 2022.
"The FLEX rover is designed to carry two suited astronauts, support scientific exploration with a robotic arm, perform cargo logistics, and withstand the extreme temperatures at the lunar South Pole," the company said in a statement.
Lunar Outpost is working with Lockheed Martin, General Motors, Goodyear and MDA Space, with the team collectively called "Lunar Dawn," on a Lunar Dawn LTV.
"We're taking cutting edge technology and automotive industry strengths to provide a true off-road vehicle capable of allowing us to live and work on the surface of the Moon," said the company's CEO Justin Cyrus. Lunar Outpost is planning to put a mini uncrewed rover on the Moon later this year, as part of Intuitive Machines' next lander mission.
NASA said it would be purchasing services from the companies, rather than buying their hardware -- a contract model it increasingly favors in order to reduce costs and to stimulate a wider space economy. Eventually, the chosen company could have its own private sector clients, too.
The US is planning to return astronauts to the Moon and build a sustained presence there under the Artemis program, named for the sister of Apollo in Greek mythology.
The first crewed mission, Artemis 3, is meant to land in 2026, though it's widely assumed that such a timeline is overly optimistic. China is also planning to send a crew to the Moon in 2030, as a new space race heats up.
It is up to you whether you eat the core of your apple — though some people choose not to, fearing it may be poisonous.
That's only partly true, says Germany's Centre for Nutrition (BZfE).
Apple cores, or more specifically the seeds, contain amygdalin, a cyanide-and-sugar based molecule which is converted into hydrogen cyanide — a highly poisonous substance — by the digestive system, the BZfE explains.
But the substance is only released if you bite into the seeds, and only lethal if you eat very large quantities of them.
The White House announced Tuesday it is directing NASA to create a unified time standard for the Moon and other celestial bodies, as governments and private companies increasingly compete in space.
With the United States keen to set international norms beyond Earth's orbit, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) instructed the US space agency to formulate a plan by the end of 2026 for a standard it is calling Coordinated Lunar Time.
"As NASA, private companies, and space agencies around the world launch missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond, it's important that we establish celestial time standards for safety and accuracy," OSTP Deputy Director for National Security Steve Welby said in a statement.
He noted how "time passes differently" depending on positions in space, offering the example of how time appears to pass more slowly where gravity is stronger, such as near celestial bodies.
"A consistent definition of time among operators in space is critical to successful space situational awareness capabilities, navigation, and communications," Welby said.
The aim, the White House says, is for Coordinate Lunar Time, or LTC, to be tied to Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), currently the primary time standard used throughout the world to regulate time on Earth.
The White House directed NASA to work with the Departments of Commerce, Defense, State and Transportation to deliver a time standard strategy that will improve navigation and other operations for missions in particular in cislunar space, the region between Earth and the Moon.
The new standard will focus on four features: traceability to UTC, accuracy sufficient to support precision navigation and science, resilience to loss of contact with Earth, and scalability to environments beyond cislunar space.
There were few technical specifics for establishing a lunar time standard laid out in the memorandum, but OSTP suggested it could adopt elements of the existing standard on Earth.
"Just as Terrestrial Time is set through an ensemble of atomic clocks on Earth, an ensemble of clocks on the Moon might set Lunar Time," it said.
The United States is planning a return to the Moon in 2026, humanity's first lunar landing since the Apollo 17 mission in 1972.
NASA said Tuesday it was analyzing an object that crashed from the sky into a Florida man's home -- which could well be a piece of debris jettisoned from the International Space Station.
Alejandro Otero of Naples, Florida, posted on X that the item "tore through the roof and went (through) 2 floors" of his house, almost striking his son, on the afternoon of March 8.
He believes it was a piece of a cargo pallet containing old batteries that NASA ground control teams released from the orbital outpost in 2021.
It was supposed to burn up harmlessly over the Earth's atmosphere on March 8, according to official projections. Otero also posted a clip from his home Nest video camera where he said the sound of it crashing through his roof could be heard at 2:34 pm.
"So that's 1934 UTC, which is very consistent with the Space Force estimate of reentry over the Gulf at 1929 UTC," wrote noted astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell, in response. "I think you may be right and it's a bit from the reentry of the EP-9 battery pallet."
The news was first reported by local news outlet winknews.com on March 15.
"NASA collected an item in cooperation with the homeowner, and will analyze the object at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida as soon as possible to determine its origin," the space agency said in a statement to AFP on Tuesday. "More information will be available once the analysis is complete."
A report by specialist news outlet Ars Technica said while the batteries were owned by NASA, they were attached to a pallet structure launched by Japan's space agency -- potentially complicating liability claims.
Past examples of manmade human space debris hitting Earth include part of a SpaceX Dragon capsule landing on an Australian sheep farm in 2022. Skylab, the United States' first space station, fell on Western Australia.
More recently, China has been criticized by NASA for allowing its giant Long March rockets to fall back to Earth after orbit.
RSBN host Brian Glenn, who is currently dating Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), said that April's solar eclipse was a "signal" that voters in the U.S. are experiencing a spiritual awakening, new video shows.
Glenn made the remarks while speaking to former President Donald Trump's supporters ahead of the former president's Tuesday speech in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
One Trump supporter told Glenn that it was a "beautiful time to be alive," which promptly sent the host on a rant.
"I often say that as much conflict as we have in the world as much pain and sorrow and people are suffering, it's a great time to be alive because we're seeing this take place and I think we're going to see where the largest kind of a spiritual awakening in this country that people are realizing how much evil has creeped into not only our government, but our own personal lives, and it's destroyed this country," he said.
U.S. communities along the path of the April 8 total solar eclipse are preparing for the year's biggest astronomic event, with millions of visitors expected to brighten local economies -- and snarl up logistics.
Near the US-Canada border in Burlington, Vermont, which is set to experience the totality just before 3:30 pm (1930 GMT), many hotels have been sold out for months.
The few remaining rooms, which typically go for around $150 a night, show online prices of $600-$700 for the night of the eclipse.
"I don't know that we'll have anything quite like this again," Jeff Lawson, a vice president in the chamber of commerce, told AFP.
Lawson marveled at his city's "incredible luck" at an opportunity "quite literally falling out of the sky into your lap."
If skies are clear, the small city of 40,000 could see its population double for the day, with visitors arriving by car, train and even private jet, Lawson said.
An estimated 32 million people live inside the "path of totality" -- under which the Moon will fully block out the Sun -- with an additional 150 million residing less than 200 miles (320 kilometers) from the strip, NASA says.
- Traffic jams -
Preparations for the big day began years ago, Matt Bruning of the Ohio Department of Transportation told AFP.
He said the agency reached out to counterparts along the last major US eclipse, in 2017, and "one of the things that we heard resoundingly was it's never too early to start planning."
Despite those efforts, there will inevitably "be delays, there will be heavy congestion," he warned.
Businesses are leaping into the bonanza with special events and in Cleveland, where local officials expect some 200,000 visitors, the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame plans a four-day "Solarfest" of live music.
The Perryman Group, a Texas-based research firm, estimates direct and indirect economic impacts of this year's eclipse could reach $6 billion.
This year's path of totality is about 115 miles wide, wider than in 2017. It begins in western Mexico, arches up through the US cities of Dallas, Indianapolis, and Buffalo, before ending in eastern Canada.
Many schools along the path will be closed or letting students out early, including in Cleveland and Montreal.
Several airlines have advertised flights scheduled to pass under the eclipse, while Delta has even planned two special trips along the path of totality, the first of which sold out in 24 hours, the company said.
NASA warns that only in the path of totality -- and only during the few minutes of the actual totality -- is it safe to look at the eclipse without eye protection.
- 'Cosmic coincidence' -
Almost all of the United States will get to experience a partial eclipse, but UCLA astronomer Jean-Luc Margot says the trip to see the totality is definitely worth the hassle.
"If you have a 99 percent partial eclipse, that is a completely different experience than being in the path of totality," he told AFP.
He will be accompanying a group of UCLA alumni to view the eclipse in rural Texas, after similar trips in 2017 to Oregon and to Chile in 2019.
When people finally see the eclipse, they "tend to be emotional," Margot said.
"It is such a beautiful event. It's due to this complete cosmic coincidence, that the angular size of the Sun and the angular size of the Moon are about the same."
Scientists have traditionally used the eclipses to observe the solar corona, an outer layer of plasma that's difficult to study due to the Sun's bright light, Margot said.
New tools such as the space-based Parker Solar Probe have made such research less eclipse-dependent, but scientists will still be taking full advantage.
NASA recently highlighted several studies being planned for the eclipse, from effects on Earth's atmosphere and animal behavior to even human psychology.
"Eclipses have a special power," NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said recently.
"They move people to feel a kind of reverence for the beauty of our universe."
A person in the US state of Texas is recovering from bird flu after being exposed to dairy cattle, officials said Monday amid growing concern over the current global strain of the virus as it spreads to new species.
It is only the second case of a human testing positive for bird flu in the country, and comes after the infection sickened herds that were apparently exposed to wild birds in Texas, Kansas and other states over the past week.
"The patient reported eye redness (consistent with conjunctivitis), as their only symptom, and is recovering," said the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). They were told to isolate and are being treated with the antiviral drug used for the flu.
The current outbreak began in 2020 and has led to the deaths of tens of millions of poultry, with wild birds also infected as well as land and marine mammals.
Cows and goats joined the list last week, a surprising development for experts because they were not thought susceptible to this type of influenza.
The infected person was likely a farm worker, Louise Moncla, a pathobiologist at the University of Pennsylvania School of Veterinary Medicine, told AFP.
"If we find continued clusters of infections in cows, then it means we need to start surveilling cows -- and that would be a big change to how we think about these viruses," she added.
"But at this time, there's not an enormous need for concern by the public," she said.
The CDC said that the infection does not change its bird flu human health risk assessment for the US, which it rates as low.
The first US bird flu case in a human occurred in a Colorado prison inmate in 2022 -- however, that was through infected poultry.
- Milk supply safe -
Experts are worried about the increasing number of mammals infected by the current H5N1 strain of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) and whether it is actually spreading between them.
"Initial testing has not found changes to the virus that would make it more transmissible to humans," the US Department of Agriculture, the CDC, and the Food and Drug Administration said in a joint statement last week.
The strain appears to have been introduced by wild birds but spread between cows hasn't been ruled out, the statement added.
The Texas health department said the cattle infections do not present a concern for the commercial milk supply, as dairies are required to destroy milk from sick cows. Pasteurization also kills the virus.
The findings marked the first time ever that HPAI has been detected in dairy cattle, according to the American Veterinary Medical Association (AVMA). Earlier in March, Minnesota reported bird flu cases among goats.
- Ongoing outbreak -
The affected cows were primarily older animals that showed decreased lactation and low appetite, "with little to no associated mortality reported," added the AVMA. Dead wild birds were generally found nearby.
A nine-year-old boy died from the virus in Cambodia in February, adding to the three deaths there in 2023 -- though the bird flu spreading in Europe and North America appears to cause milder infections, said Moncla.
Bird flu has killed tens of thousands of marine mammals since spreading in South America, according to the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research.
British seabird populations are suffering "widespread and extensive declines" according to a recent impact assessment.
The disease has hit European farms hard too, with French authorities raising the risk level to "maximum" in December, and Czech officials reporting in February they had culled 140,000 birds in 2024 alone.
Artificial intelligence is coming to Hollywood — but is Hollywood ready for it?
OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, is meeting with entertainment industry players, including executives at talent agencies and film studios, to demonstrate and explain its latest technology, Sora, which conjures videos based on what users describe in text.
It's a delicate dance for entertainment companies that want to harness powerful tools that could reduce costs and streamline their processes.
Combining artificial intelligence (AI) with a simple blood test could help diagnose sepsis faster and single out patients at the highest risk of severe complications from the infection, a study has suggested.
The approach could save lives, according to Swedish researchers, who combined the unique molecular signature of sepsis with machine-learning to predict a person’s risk of organ failure and death.
Sepsis is life-threatening and can be difficult to spot, accounting for about 11 million deaths each year — almost 20 percent of all global deaths.
Energetic cosmic beams known as jets are seen throughout our universe. They are launched when material – mainly dust and gas – falls in towards any dense central object, such as a neutron star (an extremely dense remnant of a once-massive star) or a black hole.
The jets carry away some of the gravitational energy released by the infalling gas, recycling it back into the surroundings on far larger scales.
The most powerful jets in the universe come from the biggest black holes at the centres of galaxies. The energy output of these jets can affect the evolution of an entire galaxy, or even a galaxy cluster. This makes jets a critical, yet intriguing, component of our universe.
Although jets are common, we still don’t fully understand how they are launched. Measuring the jets from a neutron star has now given us valuable information.
Jets from stellar corpses
Jets from black holes tend to be bright, and have been well studied. However, the jets from neutron stars are typically much fainter, and much less is known about them.
This presents a problem, since we can learn a lot by comparing the jets launched by different celestial objects. Neutron stars are extremely dense stellar corpses – cosmic cinders the size of a city, yet containing the mass of a star. We can think of them as enormous atomic nuclei, each about 20 kilometres across.
In contrast to black holes, neutron stars have both a solid surface and a magnetic field, and gas falling onto them releases less gravitational energy. All of these properties will have an effect on how their jets are launched, making studies of neutron star jets particularly valuable.
One key clue to how jets are launched comes from their speeds. If we can determine how jet speeds vary with the mass or spin of the neutron star, that would provide a powerful test of theoretical predictions. But it is extremely challenging to measure jet speeds accurately enough for such a test.
A cosmic speed camera
When we measure speeds on Earth, we time an object between two points. This could be a 100-metre sprinter running down the track, or a point-to-point speed camera tracking a car.
What has made this measurement so difficult in the past is that jets are steady flows. This means there is no single starting point for our timer. But we were able to identify a short-lived signal at X-ray wavelengths that we could use as our “starting gun”.
Being so dense, neutron stars can “steal” matter from a nearby orbiting companion star. While some of that gas is launched outwards as jets, most of it ends up falling onto the neutron star. As the material piles up, it gets hotter and denser.
When enough material has built up, it triggers a thermonuclear explosion. A runaway nuclear fusion reaction occurs and rapidly spreads to engulf the entire star. The fusion lasts for a few seconds to minutes, causing a short-lived burst of X-rays.
One step closer to solving a mystery
We thought this thermonuclear explosion would disrupt the neutron star’s jets. So, we used CSIRO’s Australia Telescope Compact Array to stare at the jets for three days at radio wavelengths to try and catch the disruption. At the same time, we used the European Space Agency’s Integral telescope to look at the X-rays from the system.
To our surprise, we found the jets got brighter after every pulse of X-rays. Instead of disrupting the jets, the thermonuclear explosions seemed to power them up. And this pattern was repeated ten times in one neutron star system, and then again in a second system.
We can explain this surprising result if the X-ray pulse causes gas swirling around the neutron star to fall inwards more quickly. This, in turn, provides more energy and material to divert into the jets.
Most importantly, however, we can use the X-ray burst to indicate the launch time of the jets. We timed how long they took to move outwards to where they became visible at two different radio wavelengths. These start and finish points provided us with our cosmic speed camera.
Interestingly, the jet speed we measured was close to the “escape speed” from a neutron star. On Earth, this escape speed is 11.2 kilometres per second – what rockets need to achieve to break free of Earth’s gravity. For a neutron star, that value is around half the speed of light.
Our work has introduced a new technique for measuring neutron star jet speeds. Our next steps will be to see how the jet speed changes for neutron stars with different masses and rotation rates. That will allow us to directly test theoretical models, taking us one step closer to figuring out how such powerful cosmic jets are launched.
It’s eclipse season. The Sun, Earth and Moon are aligned so it’s possible for the Earth and Moon to cast each other into shadow.
A faint lunar eclipse will occur on March 25, visible at dusk from Australia and eastern Asia, at dawn from western Africa and Europe, and for much of the night from the Americas. Two weeks later, on April 8, a total solar eclipse will sweep across North America.
These events are a good time to think about an infamous incident 520 years ago, in which an eclipse prediction was supposedly used to exploit an Indigenous population. The incident has shaped how we think about astronomy and Indigenous cultures – but the real story is far more complex.
Columbus and the eclipse
In June 1503, on his fourth voyage to the Americas, Italian explorer Christopher Columbus and his crew became stranded on Jamaica. They were saved by the Indigenous Taíno people, who gave them food and provisions.
As months passed, tensions grew. Columbus’s crew threatened mutiny, while the Taíno grew frustrated with providing so much for so little in return. By February, the Taíno had reached their breaking point and stopped providing food.
Supposedly, Columbus then consulted an astronomical almanac and discovered a lunar eclipse was forecast for February 29 1504. He took advantage of this knowledge to trick the Taíno, threatening to use his “magic power” to turn the Moon a deep red – “inflamed with wrath” – if they refused to provide supplies.
According to Columbus, this worked and the fearful Taíno continued to supply his crew until relief arrived months later. This incident inspired the idea of the “convenient eclipse”, which has become a familiar trope in works including Mark Twain’s A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur’s Court (1889) and The Adventures of Tintin (1949).
But is there truth to the trope? How much did Indigenous peoples really know about eclipses?
Merlpal Maru Pathanu
In the Torres Strait, knowledge of the stars is central to culture and identity. Traditionally, special people were chosen for years of intense instruction in the art of star knowledge, which occurred in a secretive place of higher learning called the kwod. They would be initiated as “Zugubau Mabaig”, a western Islander term meaning “star man” – an astronomer.
A Zugubau Mabaig, the keeper of constellations in the western Torres Strait, who reads the stars and passes knowledge down through song, dance, and story. David Bosun
Mualgal man David Bosun, a talented artist and son of a Zugubau Mabaig, explains that these individuals paid careful attention to all things celestial. They kept constant watch over the stars to inform their Buai (kinship group) when to plant and harvest gardens, hunt and fish, travel and hold ceremonies.
The final stage of Zugubau Mabaig initiation involved a rare celestial event. Initiates were required to prove their bravery as well as their mental skill by taking the head of an enemy, particularly a sorcerer. In this way they would absorb that person’s powerful magic.
Headhunting raids occurred immediately after a total lunar eclipse, signalled by the blood red appearance of the Moon. During the eclipse, communities performed a ceremony in which dancers donned a special dhari (headdress) as they systematically chanted the names of all the surrounding islands.
An eclipse mask by Sipau Gibuma (Boigu, 1990) and Madthubau Dhibal headdress by Jeff Waia (Saibai, 2008). National Gallery of Australia
The island named when the Moon emerged from the eclipse was the home of the sorcerers they planned to attack. Women and children sought shelter while the men prepared for war. The ceremony, named Merlpal Maru Pathanu (“the ghost has taken the spirit of the Moon”), was planned well in advance by the Zugubau Mabaig.
How was this done?
Predicting an eclipse
The Moon does not orbit Earth in the same plane Earth orbits the Sun. It’s off by a few degrees. The position of the Moon appears to zigzag across the sky over a 29.5-day lunar month. When it crosses the plane connecting Earth and the Sun, and the three bodies are in a straight line, we see an eclipse.
Lunar Analemma, by György Soponyai.
We know that ancient cultures including the Chinese and Babylonians possessed the ability to predict eclipses, and it is rather difficult to do. How did the Zugubau Mabaig accomplish it?
There are some things they would know. First, lunar eclipses only occur during a full moon, and solar eclipses during a new moon.
Second are the “eclipse seasons”: times when the planes of Earth, Moon and the Sun can intersect to form an eclipse. This happens twice a year. Each season lasts around 35 days, and repeats six months later.
Third is the Saros cycle: eclipses repeat every 223 lunar months (approximately 18 years and 11.3 days).
The details are highly complex. But it’s clear that predicting an eclipse requires careful, long-term observations and keeping detailed records, skills Torres Strait Islander astronomers have long possessed.
Flipping the narrative
The Zugubau Mabaig eclipse forecasts turn a common understanding of the history of science on its head. Indigenous peoples did, in fact, develop the ability to predict eclipses.
Perhaps the real situation is better captured in a short story called El Eclipse (1972), by Honduran writer Augusto Monterroso.
In the story, a Spanish priest is captured by Maya in Guatemala, who opt to sacrifice him. He tries to exploit his knowledge that a solar eclipse will occur that day to trick his captors, but the Maya look at the priest with a sense of incredulity. Two hours later, he meets his fate on the altar during the totality of the eclipse.
As the Sun goes dark and the priest’s blood is spilled, a Maya astronomer recites the dates of all the upcoming eclipses, solar and lunar. The Maya had already predicted them.
The truth behind this story is found in the Dresden Codex, a thousand-year-old book of Maya records that includes tables of eclipse predictions.