But it's a new day in DC, and lawmakers are studying up on their new math books. With Sen. Raphael Warnock's Georgia runoff win, an evenly split Senate will soon be 51-49. That, finally, gives Senate Democrats subpoena power, even as it strips some power away from Sinema-Manchin, because Schumer now just needs one of their votes to pass any given bill or nomination.
"When Warnock won, it removed her from the center. The power plug: Right in the center," Grijalva continued. "I don't think she can win a primary in the Democratic Party in Arizona. So she couldn't win a primary, and if she stays in as an Independent, she'll have money and she could be formidable."
Pundits predict an epic three-way cage match in 2024, with the Sinema potentially playing spoiler, as well as incumbent. As an Independent, she's expected to siphon off Democratic votes. Even as Arizona Republican Gov. Doug Ducey has rejected calls to run for Senate, thus far, Arizona Democrats say Sinema's switch empowers Ducey and his Republican machine.
"I think it helps Ducey a lot, because any votes she gets will not have gone to Ducey, you know?" Grijalva said.
"Does that make it harder for Dems to retain her critical seat?" I ask.
"Yeah, of course," Grijalva—the dean of Arizona's congressional delegation—said. "But if we can coalesce around one candidate early—resources and a good coalition and a three-way split—you never know."
After serving as co-chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus for a decade, Grijalva is now a chair emeritus of the caucus. He's been a leading liberal voice in Congress for two decades, but there are new progressive voices in town. And, when it comes to Sinema, progressives aren't necessarily divided, even as many say they're waiting to see how the Arizona Senate race shakes out before weighing in.
"Are you going to donate to the Democrat?" I pressed the current chair of the Progressive Caucus.
"She says nothing's going to change. I'm going to take her at her word," Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) replied as she walked through the basement of the Capitol. "Let's see what happens. I'm focused on the next two years."
Jayapal may be from Washington state, but she knows Arizona. She remembers sleeping on church basement floors a decade ago when she was an activist fighting the state's anti-immigrant measure, SB 1070, which you may remember for its "show me your papers" provision.
Huge fights like that one—which ended with the Supreme Court striking three provisions of the Arizona law—have made Arizona Democrats a force to be feared (just ask Kari Lake or Mark Finchem).
In the past decade, they established a network of grassroots organizers who have learned to combat the crazy conspiracies emanating from the state's Republicans by gaining voters' trust one by one, by being their neighbors. Community service projects, for instance, in off years show their neighbors they're like them. It's helped them on Election Day, because when a neighbor texts you, you're more likely to respond than if, say, 'Nancy Pelosi' or 'Donald Trump' text asking for a donation and your vote.
"Over the last ten years, groups in Arizona have done exactly that, and they've really pushed to make sure that we expand the electorate, expand the base with immigrant voters, with young people, and that's how we've gotten to win in Arizona," Jayapal recounted. "I think that's the clear lesson. Populist policies are winning. Pro-immigrant policies are winning. So whoever wants to run in that election, better remember that."
While Jayapal won't say if she will support Sinema or her Democratic challenger, there's not much love for Sinema amongst Democrats in the House of Representatives—where Sinema served for six years before moving to the Senate.
AOC slams Kyrsten Sinema, doesn’t see ‘compelling case’ for her to keep Senate seat | New York Post
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"Curious," I ask a recent Senate candidate, "What do you think of what Ms. Sinema is doing down in AZ?"
"I've got no comment," Rep. Tim Ryan—the Democrat who just lost Ohio's bruising US Senate contest—told Raw Story just off the House floor.
Ryan wasn't the only one to decline to comment. Still, even some of her former freshman classmates in the House are venting their frustration with the party-switcher.
"I wasn't surprised. She certainly marches to the beat of her own drummer," Rep. Dan Kildee (D-MI) told me as he waited for a Capitol elevator. "It's not helpful."
Senate Democrats need Sinema
It's a different story altogether in the narrowly divided Senate. Democrats need Sinema in their caucus, or else they'll lose subpoena power in the New Year. Most also say they like her.
"I'll still work with her," Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) told Raw Story as he hopped a tram under the Capitol. "I believe she'll continue to be on the committee, my Homeland Security Committee. I'll continue to work with her."
Peters chaired the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee during the midterms, and some of his colleagues urged him to stay at the helm of the party's campaign arm through the 2024 cycle. But it promises to be a thankless cycle for Dems, with the map tilting in Republicans' favor again.
In 2024, Democrats must defend 23 of the 33 Senate seats that are up in the election, which is why party leaders were already braced for a brutal cycle. Sinema's decision to abandon Democrats further muddies the party's already murky 2024 map. Her defenders are staying calm, at least publicly, though.
"Kyrsten's always been an independent leader, from the time that I got to know her in the House to the times we worked in the Senate," Sen. Ben Ray Lujan (D-NM) told Raw Story. "She's been clear about why she's doing this, and it's consistent and constant with the senator that I know, the House member that I know, the friend that I know."
The nature of an evenly divided Senate has meant that whenever Sinema balked—like her opposition to filibuster or election reform—prized Democratic priorities withered on the legislative vine. That's made many a progressive bristle, especially in the House.
But many Senate Democrats are quick to defend her. They say that Sinema's negotiating prowess was on full display when it came to the hallmark bills passed by the 117th Congress and signed into law by President Biden. Her vote proved essential to implementing the Democratic Party agenda.
Rep. Cori Bush To Manchin, Sinema: Let Us See The Vote, That’s How We Know Where You Stand
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Sinema helped negotiate this summer's historic bipartisan gun reform law. And after more than a year of foot-dragging, she proved a decisive vote in passing Democrat's sweeping Inflation Reduction Act.
So while House Democrats are throwing shade her way, many Senate Democrats know they need her. At least in this Congress, which ends in a few weeks. Many don't want to weigh in on Arizona's 2024 Senate contest, because they hope to do some legislating in the New Year before the 2024 election overtakes the Capitol.
Besides needing her, for now, Sinema's still the only declared Senate candidate in the Grand Canyon State.
"There have been no announcements in Arizona just yet, so I don't want to get into the game of trying to play something out when no one's jumped in just yet," Lujan said. "We'll see what happens, and then I guess we can talk about it more, but right now, I really don't know."
Before Sinema joined their ranks, only four Independents have served in the US Senate in the past two decades. Two of them—Sens. Angus King of Maine and Vermont's Bernie Sanders—are still serving.
"I'm curious what you think of Sinema joining you as an Independent?" I asked Sanders—who has accused her of sabotaging Democrat's agenda—as he headed to the Senate floor.
"We will see," the Vermont Independent—who has, paradoxically, run for president as a Democrat twice now—replied.
"It's eyebrow-raising."
Back in the rowdy House, Sinema maintains some allies—along with some foes, like Arizona Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, who many Democrats are urging to challenge the state's new Independent senator. But that chamber's gotten a metaphorical facelift since she moved to the Senate in 2018—and not just its expanding ranks of Forever Trumpers.
The same year Sinema went to the Senate, "The Squad" became a force in the House—and Sinema's felt their mighty progressive sting from her perch in the middle of the senatorial road. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and her growing band of progressives have helped transform the Democratic Party, pulling its longtime leaders further to the progressive left, including Biden himself.
With millions of followers eager to help realize their progressive vision, this new generation of progressives has changed the debate in Washington—from the Green New Deal to Biden reluctantly erasing some student loan debt.
The Squad, which now includes Reps. Cori Bush (D-MO) and Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) also represents the new face of today's Democratic Party. And Sinema stepped in it when she stepped into the spotlight meant for Sen. Warnock—Georgia's first Black senator and a reverend whose Ebenezer Baptist Church pulpit was previously occupied by Martin Luther King Jr.
Under the unforgiving—and perpetually unflattering—fluorescent lights that line a depressingly bland tunnel to the Capitol, I catch up to Bowman and catch his attention with one word.
"Sinema."
"Yes," Bowman replied through a weary, slightly slighted, though playful, laugh. "Come on now."
"Can you write this? Can you write this gesture?" the second-term congressman said as he flipped his palms towards the concrete heavens above us while his broad shoulders slumped under an invisible weight—a new look for the proud progressive who usually exudes an air of cool, if utterly approachable, confidence while strolling the Capitol grounds. "Write this gesture, like, 'Bowman throws his hands in the air, like, come on man.'"
His tempered frustration is because this was supposed to be a celebration. Democrats just flexed. Twice. After defying historical midterm norms by not losing a single incumbent senator in the midterms, the entire Democratic Party came around Sen. Warnock in Georgia—whether through virtual phone banking or the contributions that flowed in from all corners of America—and expanded their Senate majority.
Warnock won. But Democrats everywhere felt victorious. Democrats everywhere were victorious. Then the party got Sinema-ed.
Bowman's annoyed—after a bruising election cycle that came on the heels of the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection—that the Democratic base saw their post-election celebration cut short. But he's frustrated that Sinema stole the spotlight from the good reverend.
"It's just the timing of it, right? Like, to do it two days, three days after Warnock's win gives us a 51-49 edge? It's eyebrow-raising," Bowman lamented. "We know that a lot of her moves over the last couple of years have been more responsive to her donors, in terms of protecting corporations, protecting the wealthy elite, not supporting Build Back Better, etc."
"Did she betray the Democratic Party?" I asked.
"Yes, she did," Bowman replied. "One of my main concerns is the way this place works. It's so mysterious to people, right? And so, we have tens of millions of people who are not engaged in our political process because they don't understand it, because they don't trust it, because of dark money and corruption. All of the above. And her making a move like that, at that time, sort of feeds that beast: 'Oh, they're all crooks.'"
Bowman's an educator. It's central to his being. Whether his past work as a teacher, guidance counselor, or middle school principal, he's devoted his life to empowering his community through knowledge. If you've ever struggled to grasp a new subject, you know how debilitating confusion can be, which is why Bowman's upset over the timing of Sinema divorcing Dems.
"That's my biggest concern. It's like, our job is to pull people in and help them understand," Bowman said. "If she feels she's representing Arizona in a way that they want to be represented, then cool. I can't say nothing. I'm not from Arizona, right?
"But the thing about it is, she avoids a Democratic primary, she guarantees herself on the general election ticket and puts herself in a position to be reelected. People communicate as if it's for some high ideal or values," Bowman continued, "but this looks like self-preservation."
