“The U.S. is at a turning point — Washington needs to decide what it wants,” said Geoff Ramsey, a Venezuela expert at the Atlantic Council. “The president came to office campaigning to end endless wars, but he’s found himself now championing what may be America’s longest war, which is the war on drugs.”
Trump confirmed he authorized the Central Intelligence Agency to conduct covert operations in Venezuela and declared its president, Nicolás Maduro, was illegitimately elected and heading up a narcotics cartel, and the president has made clear that he intends to intensify pressure on the country and possibly even "stop them by land" – which sources told the Post would likely be a targeted operation on alleged trafficker encampments or airstrips.
“It would certainly ratchet things up if they began doing strikes on land, inside Venezuelan territory, especially if those strikes had a political purpose,” said State Department veteran Tom Shannon.
“This is where I think the administration is going to get itself in trouble," Shannon added. "They’re not being clear to the American people about what’s going on here. If it’s just drug trafficking, great. But they’ve got a way-oversized force and there’s an intimidation message here that is only being articulated through acts, and through the announcement of covert action inside Venezuela.”
Trump's instructions to the CIA are highly classified, but two sources familiar with the document say it gave the go-ahead on aggressive action against the Venezuelan government and associated drug traffickers but did not explicitly order the CIA to overthrow Maduro – although that outcome could be possible from the steps he authorized.
The CIA was behind “all the coups d’état in Latin America ... and presidents assassinated,” Maduro said in response to Trump's CIA order, and the country's defense minster, Vladimir Padrino, warned on state television that Venezuelans have to prepare, because the irrationality with which U.S. imperialism acts is not normal.”
Those statements were noteworthy, according to an expert on the region.
“This is the first time we have indicators that they are taking this threat seriously,” said Andrei Serbin Pont of the Latin American research group CRIES. “They understand that conventional capacities don’t stand a chance” against a possible U.S. intervention."
Venezuela's military, which is backed by contributions from Russia, China and Iran, is outdated and not used to combat, according to a retired Venezuelan army lieutenant colonel now living in the U.S.
“In the end, what is truly relevant, and why the regime is a threat, is its asymmetric capabilities in intelligence, infiltration, buying favors and disinformation," José Gustavo Arocha, the retired Venezuelan officer.
The country's military would not likely present much of a challenge to U.S. forces, but experts say military action carries the risk of a broader conflict.
“What began as a limited action against a handful of alleged drug smugglers could quickly expand to an interstate war, regime change," wrote Geoffrey Corn, a retired Army officer and director of Texas Tech University’s Center for Military Law and Policy, "and all the second and third order consequences the United States has experienced that are often harder to address than defeating the enemy in battle.”
