U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) speaks during a press conference, following a Senate Democrats weekly policy lunch, on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., November 13, 2024. REUTERS/Leah Millis
Financier Steve Rattner told MS NOW's “Morning Joe” on Friday that economic data and a model he built point to a strong midterm for Democrats, saying “all this points to good news for the Democrats.”
Recent polling has indicated deep trouble for Republicans in not only the House, but the Senate as well.
However, Rattner said polls “are not as reliable as they used to be,” so he compared this year with the 2018 midterm Trump faced. By almost every economic measure, he said, conditions are worse now. A chart he showed has higher unemployment, inflation and gas prices, and lower GDP and job growth. He said consumer sentiment is at the lowest level recorded in the survey.
Rattner noted that in 2018 Democrats won 41 House seats and lost two in the Senate, but faced a tough map with 26 Democrats up. Only 13 Democrats are up this time, he said.
He also described a model based on the generic ballot and the number of seats the incumbent party holds. The fewer seats the party holds, he said, the fewer it has to lose, which helps Trump, but the generic ballot hurts him. Rattner said the generic ballot has “almost a 90 percent correlation” with seats gained or lost, and that the model predicts Republicans will lose 33 House seats. “I feel pretty good about this as a predictor,” he said.
Host Joe Scarborough said Americans are “getting it from all sides,” with older, working and younger people all struggling.
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