Lesley Abravanel

The "world turned upside down for Republicans" when President Donald Trump was forced by his own party "to retreat" as Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) pushed through the release of files related to convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein, writes Ben Jacobs in New York Magazine.

"For years, Trump never allowed Republicans to distance themselves from him and even celebrated the defeat of moderates in 2018 who were squishy on him. This week, facing scores of Republicans voting against him, he yielded," he writes.

This latest blow, Jacobs writes, is evidence that Trump "showed weakness within his party for the first time since his reelection, putting himself in conflict with the MAGA base."

What began as what Jacobs calls "a small Republican rebellion in the face of Trump's determined opposition" as Massie was joined by Republican Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), Nancy Mace (R-SC) and Lauren Boebert (R-CO), ended in a mortal blow to the president.

Trump's "ferocious fight" to prevent the vote on the petition to force the release of the Epstein files "didn't work," Jacobs writes, and ended up being "the biggest rebuke by his own party in Congress that Trump has ever suffered, and he failed to hold together normally loyal Republicans."

"Republican strategists were befuddled that Trump had committed so much effort to the fight in the first place," Jacobs writes.

"One pointed out that the president 'directly contradicted the base,' noting that Epstein had been used as a cudgel by MAGA personalities for years and that it was a stretch too far even for Trump to tell his loyalists that Epstein was a nonissue," he adds.

Jacobs says that although the Epstein saga will "eventually fade away," as "even Democrats concede voters care more about affordability than the late sex trafficker," major damage has been done to Trump and his brand.

"But in a year that started with Trump jamming through Mike Johnson as Speaker over objections within the GOP and that featured the president steamrolling hardline conservatives into supporting the Republican spending megabill that became his signature legislation, this was an unmistakable loss. For a president who appeared to be invincible within his own party, even a small wound shows that he is mortal," he says.

Although President Donald Trump has previously floated Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as his heirs apparent in 2028, that plan is under threat as new Republicans mull a 2028 run, Newsweek reports.

Recent cracks in the MAGA base over the release of the files pertaining to late convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein and support of far-right influencer Nick Fuentes, among other things, may make it "difficult for Trump to rally his supporters around whoever he favors," Newsweek explains.

And while Trump has previously floated the unconstitutional idea of running for a third term, that notion has been dismissed, and instead, he is "likely to attempt to cement his influence on U.S. politics by choosing a successor, and whoever follows him will be responsible for guiding the Republican Party through future elections and continuing MAGA policies and the president's legacy," Newsweek says.

A most recent poll by Polymarket shows Vance has a 56 percent chance of becoming the Republican nominee in 2028, while Rubio is a distant second, with an 8 percent chance. But now that others may enter the field, that could change.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), a former Trump loyalist turned foil, has dismissed rumors she will seek the presidency despite a recent poll showing her chances improving.

Her odds, Newsweek reports, have increased from 2.7 percent in August to 4 percent in November, according to Polymarket.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), who has emerged as a vocal critic of Tucker Carlson, is also reportedly weighing a run, despite poor early polling in which he currently has 4 percent support, trailing Vance, who polls at 42 percent according to a separate YouGov poll.

In that same poll, Trump's eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., came in distant second at 13 percent. Florida's Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose 2024 presidential campaign was eviscerated by Trump, sits at 7 percent and Rubio is narrowly ahead of Cruz at 5 percent.

Calvin Jillson, a politics professor at Southern Methodist University in Texas, tells Newsweek that Vance is still poised to be the frontrunner.

"The 2028 presidential race, with no incumbent in the fight, will likely draw at least a dozen contenders, maybe many more on the Democrat side. Though things could change in the coming months, Trump’s vice president, JD Vance, is a strong favorite for the Republican nomination" Jillson says.

"Rubio, Cruz, maybe Tucker Carlson, will wrestle him for it, but the question for Vance and Rubio is how they can stay close enough to Trump to win the nomination without staying so close that Trump’s baggage becomes theirs in the general election," he adds.

Vance's path to the nomination may not be smooth, though, Jillson says, adding that "only if the Trump administration founders will Cruz and Carlson become relevant. But if it happens, expect a cage match, as Trump might say, ‘like no one has ever seen before.'"