Despite President Trump's Iran war peace deal, suspiciously announced on the weekend of his birthday, Republican campaign consultants and candidates are still bracing for a GOP midterm disaster, convinced that voter economic anxiety has hardened beyond repair before voters head to the polls.
GOP insiders close to the White House openly acknowledge that even if gas prices drop, the damage is already done. Voter perceptions of economic hardship are "baked in and irreversible," according to Republicans interviewed for Politico reporting.
According to the report, the political math is shaping up to be devastating for Republicans. Trump and the GOP were already grappling with affordability concerns before the Iran war began at the end of February. Merely returning to pre-war economic conditions won't be enough to shift voter sentiment, GOP strategists argue—particularly given that economic anxiety is the primary driver of midterm voting behavior.
"Economically, I don't think there's time. I think it's too late, essentially, to really change a voter's mood," confided one Republican to Politico. "But I mean, hey, I'll take it. We'll take whatever we get, right?"
The White House strategy is now damage control: laser-focused messaging that Trump improved the economy in his first term and can do it again—and that now the war is over, economic recovery can resume.
"The argument is: Trump improved the economy in the first term, he can do it again, he knows how to do it, and now the war is over, we're going to get back to it," said a White House insider. "The economic trend pre-war was actually pretty decent. Could we get back to it fast enough? I don't think so, but let's try."
However, as Politico is reporting, the Iran deal's durability is uncertain. While the U.S. and Iran have digitally signed a framework agreement to end the war, neither side has published the text, leaving critical questions unanswered about tolls for strait transiting and Iran's nuclear commitments. Israel's stated plan to remain "indefinitely" in Lebanon further threatens the agreement's viability.
A senior U.S. official acknowledged that Hormuz would be "open toll-free for 60 days," with permanent reopening remaining one of many ongoing negotiation points. Oil tanker owners remain hesitant to transit the strait due to mines and attack risks, the official conceded.
"I think we'll get a very long way there over the next couple of weeks, but it's going to take a little time because you have some crews that are extremely risk averse," the official told Politico.
Gas price relief faces a ceiling regardless. Global oil inventories have been thoroughly drained to multi-decade lows—the market is missing more than a billion gallons of crude oil supply. If the deal holds, prices could dip below $4 a gallon, according to Bob McNally, head of energy consulting firm Rapidan Energy and a former George W. Bush administration energy adviser. But low inventories will eventually reverse that trend.
If negotiations fracture, prices could spike above $5 a gallon. Either way, volatility will likely persist beyond summer as new oil supply reaches markets.
For Republicans facing midterm voters already convinced the economy is broken, even temporary gas price relief may come "too little, too late," Politico's Megan Messerly and Scott Waldman wrote.
