A political expert at George Mason University is predicting that 2010 will see more voters than any midterm election in history.


Dr. Michael P. McDonald has used early voter turnout to project that 90 million people will vote in this year's elections. McDonald is Associate Professor of Government and Politics in the Department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University and a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution.

The current record was set in 2006 with 86 million voters.

About 41.3 percent of the nation's voters will participate this year, according to McDonald. The record for highest proportion of voters was set in 1994 with 41.1 percent.

Midterm turnout is relatively low compared to presidential elections when about 55 percent of voters participate.

Minnesota is expected to have the highest participation with 60 percent taking part in Tuesday polls. In Mississippi, only 28 percent are projected to vote.

The following table contains Dr. McDonald's turnout estimates.

StateVoting-Eligible PopulationTurnout Rate EstimateEarly Vote Rate Estimate
United States218,054,30141.3%28.9%
Alabama3,457,01940.0%3.5%
Alaska493,69254.0%27.0%
Arizona4,331,85140.0%50.0%
Arkansas2,079,64742.0%45.0%
California22,882,53244.0%50.0%
Colorado3,578,61654.0%70.0%
Connecticut2,507,29648.0%6.5%
Delaware631,63444.0%3.5%
District of Columbia470,14430.0%6.0%
Florida12,812,80246.0%42.5%
Georgia6,596,55635.0%32.0%
Hawaii930,62444.0%40.0%
Idaho1,051,97846.0%20.0%
Illinois8,934,07243.0%14.0%
Indiana4,678,73937.0%15.0%
Iowa2,220,71850.0%33.0%
Kansas1,995,92744.0%22.0%
Kentucky3,197,47144.0%5.0%
Louisiana3,256,63739.0%12.0%
Maine1,032,82055.0%22.0%
Maryland3,944,00648.0%16.0%
Massachusetts4,783,81949.0%5.0%
Michigan7,288,05549.0%20.0%
Minnesota3,799,32860.0%7.0%
Mississippi2,129,09228.0%4.0%
Missouri4,433,44349.0%7.0%
Montana753,66650.0%40.0%
Nebraska1,271,87542.0%20.0%
Nevada1,692,49943.0%65.0%
New Hampshire1,011,12547.0%7.0%
New Jersey5,811,88636.0%8.0%
New Mexico1,400,21744.0%50.0%
New York13,355,98436.0%5.0%
North Carolina6,760,22732.0%45.0%
North Dakota496,66445.0%35.0%
Ohio8,637,28249.0%25.0%
Oklahoma2,653,82139.0%8.0%
Oregon2,780,45652.0%100.0%
Pennsylvania9,565,25945.0%4.0%
Rhode Island755,17951.0%4.0%
South Carolina3,375,95838.0%11.0%
South Dakota600,02958.0%27.0%
Tennessee4,659,86537.0%42.0%
Texas15,407,66631.0%48.0%
Utah1,843,28234.0%25.0%
Vermont493,69655.0%20.0%
Virginia5,689,91033.0%7.0%
Washington4,728,33247.0%100.0%
West Virginia1,418,69136.0%25.0%
Wisconsin4,203,36653.0%10.0%
Wyoming405,86150.0%22.0%