Republican strategists are privately expecting a wipeout in Iowa as a deepening farm crisis tied to President Donald Trump's policies threatens the party's grip on a state he carried by more than 13 points, according to a new report.
"In Iowa, we should brace for losing everything, definitely the governor's race and maybe the Senate race and who knows what else," one top GOP campaign consultant told Axios.
Farmers say two Trump-driven pressures have compounded years of rising costs and consolidation. Tariffs have raised prices for fertilizer, pesticides and equipment while roiling markets, and the resulting trade fights have strained ties with Canada, which buys roughly 30 percent of Iowa's exports. Meanwhile, the war in Iran has pushed diesel prices in the state up nearly 80 percent, leaving some farmers weighing loans just to stay afloat.
"Iowa is on the front end of a farm crisis. It's ground zero," the consultant said, warning that signs of trouble are spreading to Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri.
Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson is running roughly even with Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek in the race for U.S. Senate, while Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand holds a wider lead over Republican Zach Lahn in the governor's race.
Kansas' Senate contest and Nebraska's race for governor have also tightened.
Trump on Monday unveiled plans for a $15 billion steel plant in Iowa that would be the nation's largest, but local political observers noted it won't open until 2030.
Mark Mueller, a Republican who leads the Iowa Corn Growers Association, downplayed the polling, suggesting voters are reluctant to admit backing Trump. Still, he said his own farm in Waverly is "scraping by," with rising interest rates adding to the strain.
"Some guys are saying they can't even leave the family farm to their son," Mueller said.
Few expect farmers to defect to Democrats, so the bigger worry for Republicans is that discouraged GOP voters sit out the election. Julius Schaaf, a retired Democratic farmer in Fremont County, said younger growers without a financial cushion are struggling most.
"It's just absolutely wiping them out," he said.
Some Republicans also fear Lahn, who has faced scrutiny over his residency and farming credentials, could drag down Hinson. "Ashley can survive. I wouldn't bet on Lahn," one top Iowa Republican said.
Lahn adviser Luke Thompson acknowledged the challenge of defending three competitive House seats, a Senate seat and an open governor's office in a midterm.
"It is going to be hard," Thompson said. "But pant-s---ing is silly."