How Kyrsten Sinema's ego could elect a far-right Republican Senator: report

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) is set to seek reelection in 2024, but it has become clear over the past two years in office that she has been unable to secure support from her own party's voters after becoming a new GOP ally. Jan. 2022 polls showed her losing in the Democratic primary election. Despite telling her state she was a progressive, she's turned further and further to the GOP, which has garnered favor from lobbyists and other corporate donors.

This week she went full Joe Lieberman, knowing that she couldn't get elected in a Democratic primary after alienating her party by blocking popular legislation Americans want. With a likely Democrat running in the race, however, Axios explained that Sinema would continue to be the Arizona spoiler. She is likely to go unopposed as an Independent unless a popular candidate files to run against her to score the top stop.

"Sinema would have had difficulty winning a primary. But she can win a general election — and might even be the favorite — if no Democrat of consequence runs," wrote Axios.

Arizona has semi-closed primaries, meaning Republicans can vote in Republican primaries, Democrats can vote in Democratic primaries, but independents can vote in the primary of their own choosing. There is no independent primary. It would mean a number of Democrats or Republicans would have to switch to independent and vote against Sinema in an independent primary. The GOP will likely have several candidates, but it's unclear whether Democrats would have a large field.

Meanwhile, Axios pointed out that the White House and the Democratic committees have an option of whether they're ready to help Sinema despite her leaving the party or whether they'll support their party's nominee.

"If Democrats take the first path, Sinema will be treated like Sen. Angus King, a Maine independent who caucuses with the Democrats and draws only nominal Democratic opposition in his campaigns," said Axios. They also cited Utah's Evan McMullin, who ran this year as a Senate candidate. The difference is that Angus King has been an ally that is embraced by the party. Sinema has bucked the Democratic Party. McMullin has long been a Republican but was chased out by the extremism embraced by the GOP. In his case, the Democratic Party didn't promote him or raise money for him; they just didn't attack him.

There are two options for the race in Arizona: either Sinema takes votes from a Democratic candidate and helps elect a far-right Republican, or the Republicans elect a moderate GOP candidate and she splits the Republican vote in the general election. Given the primary electorate in Arizona, the greater likelihood is that the GOP would elect a far-right candidate like Kari Lake. Given her allegiance to the GOP over the past year, it's unclear whether they made a deal with her not to support a GOP candidate against her.

"In other words, Sinema is essentially daring Democrats (and Gallego) to get in, knowing it comes with the threat of mutually assured destruction," Axios explained.

It appears the only real way to defeat Sinema is to ensure a reasonable Republican wins the GOP primary, or another independent candidate or even a few dozen independent candidates.

To get on the ballot, Sinema, and other non-party candidates, would need 43,492 valid signatures, which is 3 percent of the unaffiliated registered voters in Arizona.

Read their full column at Axios.