GOP floats fresh conspiracy as it loses grasp on key swing state

Conspiracy is brewing in a flailing Republican’s congressional district as a powerful political group and local elected officials claim GOP voters aren’t receiving ballots — and election watchdogs brace for battle.

Arizona state representatives and high-ranking members of Turning Point Action — the far-right organization founded by the late Charlie Kirk — are calling on the federal government to investigate Pima County, the diverse community of voters represented by Rep. Juan Ciscomani, (R-AZ), as he fights tooth-and-nail for his seat.

What they haven’t done is call Pima Country to verify if any of their claims are true, Recorder Gabriella Cázares-Kelly, a progressive elected to oversee early voting and registration, told Raw Story.

“They’re just planting these complaints,” Cázares-Kelly told Raw Story. “They’re looking for a smoking gun and there just isn’t one.”

The key drivers of the rumors are Turning Point Action’s Chief Operating Officer Tyler Bowyer, one of President Donald Trump's fake electors in 2020, as well as Arizona state Reps. John Gillette and Rachel Keshel.

Gillette, a MAGA Republican with a history of floating anti-Democrat conspiracy theories, claimed on Oct. 19 that mail-in ballots had not been delivered to conservative voters in an X post read by 15,000 users and shared more than 300 times.

“Mostly Republican ballots have not been delivered, by a leftist union,” Gillette wrote, referring to the Arizona State Association of Letter Carriers. “Trump was right again. Time for full federal investigation.”

Keshel raised the specter of “criminal activities” in one of severalposts alleging election malfeasance and claimed she’s been connected with investigators through “an individual who has been working very closely with the Feds regarding elections.”

Turning Point Action spokesperson Andrew Kolvet and Bowyer both circulated the claims in two posts that received a total 200,000 views.

“Large numbers of Republicans reporting they never received a ballot,” Bowyer told his 335,000 followers. “In some precincts it appears that more than 10% of Republicans reported that no ballot arrived or delayed by more than a week."

“I am calling on the Department of Justice to investigate the Pima County elections and USPS in Tucson/Pima county to determine why this is happening.”

According to Cázares-Kelly, it’s not happening.

“Where is this 10 percent? Where are these numbers coming from?” she said. “We looked at everything and we didn’t see anything like that.”

Cázares-Kelly is in a position to know. As Pima County’s recorder, she oversees voter registration and early voting for the roughly 700,000 eligible voters in her district.

Her office, staffed by Democrats and Republicans, collects and maintains a slew of information that includes voter precinct history, ballot tracking data and even the names of the operators who field complaints and make changes.

All of this is done under strict protocol and the watch of bipartisan observers, she said.

To address fraud concerns, Pima County has launched an online public record database where voters can find personalized information about upcoming elections and historical documentation dating back to 1865.

That didn’t stop roughly 1,000 people from calling the Recorder’s office on Oct. 19 — the same day Gillette posted his claims.

“We got so many phone calls we got additional operators,” Cázares-Kelly said. “Everyone is hyper-concerned and worried, 'Somebody is going to do so something bad with my ballot.'”

Who didn’t call? Gillette, Keshel or Turning Point, Cázares-Kelly said.

“I don’t understand why they wouldn’t,” she said. “That logic doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.”

The Recorder’s office immediately investigated — and confirmed a contracted vendor sent out 480,000 ballots on Oct. 7, according to a public announcement shared with Raw Story.

The United States Postal Service confirmed 97 percent were delivered — the remaining 3 percent ending up in places USPS couldn’t track, such as P.O. boxes and homes in deeply rural areas, Cázares-Kelly said.

Many of the voters who reported missing ballots had either forgotten to update a new address or falsely assumed they were signed up to receive one because, in a previous election, mail-in ballots had been sent out automatically to everyone, said Cázares-Kelly.

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“We have proven over and over that voting is safe and secure,” she told Raw Story. “We have better things to do than to entertain Twitter bros and their ridiculous claims.”

Such "ridiculous claims" arrive at a charged moment for America's political history, increasingly defined by misinformation and conspiracies, said DaMareo Cooper of Popular Democracy, a grassroots network of and for Black, brown and low-income communities.

Cooper — whose group represents 47 organizations across 32 states, D.C. and Puerto Rico — told Raw Story the Pima County rumors are part of a "broader pattern" of unverified claims amplifying into accusations nationwide.

"A voter who hasn’t received a ballot deserves help and clear answers," Cooper said. "Exploiting that concern to spread suspicion makes it harder to resolve problems and puts the people administering our elections at risk. Those pushing these narratives should be held accountable for the claims they make and the fear they spread."

Jill Garvey of States at the Core, a group that combats authoritarianism and political extremism, told Raw Story earlier this month that her organization is joining groups such as Popular Democracy to mount a vast campaign to protect election integrity on and after Election Day on Nov. 3.

“This election is a vulnerability for authoritarian movements and their leaders,” Garvey said. “They're going to be desperate to hang on to power and potentially they won't be able to, so there may be more extreme measures that certain factions of these movements go to in order to maintain control.”

Turning Point Action — the advocacy arm of the conservative youth group based in Phoenix — has a long history of resorting to extreme measures in Arizona.

Former Turning Point Action strategic director Austin Smith pleaded guilty to two counts of election fraud in January of this year after he was caught signing a dead woman's name to his candidate nomination petition.

Jake Hoffman, a Turning Point consultant and friend of Bowyer, was caught in 2020 orchestrating a secretive "troll farm" that saw teens slamming social media with pro-Trump content and fear mongering over mail-in ballots. He is now an Arizona state senator.

Bowyer was one of the fake electors indicted — then pardoned — who tried to overturn former President Joe Biden's victory in 2020.

His campaign of anti-Biden online rhetoric at the time antagonized voters who began sending death threats to a local election official and harassing his kids, according to the Washington Post.

When Bowyer was urged to tone down the messaging, he reportedly replied those who didn't align themselves with the party should expect repercussions.

“I didn’t build a 45 million dollar a year organization,” he reportedly wrote, by “misunderstanding the base.”

Whether or not Bowyer's boast holds true in 2026 remains to be seen, but the stakes could not be higher — for Pima County and the nation.

That’s because Ciscomani is one of a handful of Republican incumbents in Congress spurring fears that the GOP could lose control of the House in 2027 — and warning signs are blaring.

Ciscomani represents District 6, one of the most evenly divided districts in the nation — one President Donald Trump lost and won by less than a point in the last two presidential elections.

This year, Ciscomani’s name has appeared on a list of “patriots” that House Republicans worry are the most vulnerable to challenger candidates, and on lists of left-leaning races identified by Cook Political Report and the Center for Politics.

In conversation with Raw Story, Cázares-Kelly noted Ciscomani has publicly come out in support of election workers in a letter that earned him her gratitude.

But that didn’t stop Cázares-Kelly from casting blame on the Republican Party for what she described as a concerted effort to sow distrust.

“He is a member of the political party that is really hellbent on sowing distrust,” she said. “There has been constant misdirection and misinformation.”

Cázares-Kelly describes Pima County as a wonderland of diversity on the Mexican border, surrounded by mountains, replete with forests and desert land, college towns and Unesco’s first Creative City of Gastronomy — Tucson.

It’s also home to the Tohono O'odham Nation, a Native American territory roughly the size of Connecticut, of which Cázares-Kelly is a citizen.

“We’re very big on celebrating,” said Cázares-Kelly. Then, after a beat, she added, “Don’t come in the summer.”

As willing as Cázares-Kelly was to laugh off the “Twitter bros” and the notoriously hot Arizona weather, the Pima County Recorder grew sad as she considered the effect elected officials’ Election Day rumors have had on her county.

“I’m so disappointed that they continue to create this distrust and wreak this havoc on their constituency,” Cázares-Kelly said. “They should be promoting people participating in our most sacred responsibility as citizens — and they’re not.”