"In response to the U.S.-Israeli attack, Iran played its biggest card, closing the Strait of Hormuz," wrote Grossman, a political science professor at the University of Illinois. "It’s a narrow choke point at the end of the Persian Gulf, and a kink in the waterway leaves it exposed to a lot of Iran’s coastline. About 20 percent of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz, and it isn’t hard for Iran to stop the traffic."
"Iran can’t prevent U.S. and Israeli forces from flying over the gulf, and they probably couldn’t keep the U.S. Navy out of it, but to close the strait, they don’t need to," he added. "They only have to make shipping companies afraid to sail, and insurance companies think the risk of insuring the ships is too high. With threats, a few attacks on tankers, and now possibly sea mines, Iran has."
That development should have been expected, Grossman wrote, but the president seems caught off guard by the strategic closure that's threatening to tip the global economy into a tailspin, so Trump has fallen back on his habitual tactics to wriggle out of the jam he created for himself.
"Trump tried saying the war is almost over and the U.S. already won," Grossman wrote. "It made the oil price drop back down for a bit, but as U.S.-Israeli bombardment continued and market disruptions got worse, it rose again."
"Trump tried telling ships to traverse the Strait of Hormuz, but most wouldn’t, and a few who did exploded, presumably at Iran’s hand," he added. "He tried releasing oil from America’s strategic reserve, and some other countries did from theirs. But that’s a Band-Aid on a gaping wound, and had little impact."
He tried bombing Kharg Island, which Iran uses for oil exports, in the apparent belief that slowing down Iran's shipping would force it to stop blocking other nations' ships in the Persian Gulf, and Grossman saw a parallel in Trump's business career.
"That recalls one of Trump’s go-to moves in business: the bad faith lawsuit," Grossman wrote. "He’d break a contract, screw someone over, and dare them to sue him. Or would initiate legal action himself. Either way, he bet that he’d have more resources and greater tolerance for a protracted legal fight, and the other party would settle even when the facts were on their side."
"That won’t work with Iran," Grossman warned.
Trump has incentivized the Iranian regime to use every bit of leverage they have and endure as much punishment as they can take, and U.S. allies aren't willing to bail him out after he alienated them and launched an illegal war without first consulting them.
"Much of the time when Trump was in the private sector and messed up, his rich dad bailed him out or he’d declare bankruptcy," Grossman wrote. "Instead of holding equity or debt, Trump would have the business pay him a salary and bonuses, so that money was gone when the company went under, and his partners and contractors would take most of the losses."
"Trump started something that quickly spiraled and seems out of ideas," he added. "There’s no one to sue, no rules to manipulate, just the hard realities of resource shortages and war. And there’s a good chance Iran can tolerate being bombed more than the U.S. can tolerate a rapidly rising oil price and the economic damage it causes."
