"Yeah, regrets? Some folks had a few," Enten said, quoting from Frank Sinatra's signature song, "My Way." "What are we talking about here? Well, let's just take a look here, okay, choice for 2024 presidential election. The actual [result] was Donald Trump winning by about a point and a half, it rounds to a point. But take a look here in a polled redo between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in April of 2025, it was within the margin of error, right, Kamala Harris by a point."
"But look at where we are now: According to an NBC News/Survey Monkey poll, Kamala Harris wins in a redo, asking folks, essentially, if you could redo the 2024 election, how would you vote?" Enten added. "She wins it by, get this, eight points, a massive shift from what we saw back in November of 2024, when Donald Trump won by a point, and I will note that this sample was weighted to the 2024 result in which Donald Trump won by a point."
That might be a consolation prize for Harris, but it should also be a warning sign to Republican congressional candidates, he said.
"The fact is the 2024 election is gone goodbye, but it has a massive impact on voter sentiment on what may happen later this year," Enten said. "Why do I say that? Because let's take a look at the vote for Congress, and this is very important, all right, 2024 Harris voters. They vote for the Democrats on average by, get this, 89 points. The Trump voters mostly stick by the Republicans, but by a significantly smaller margin, by 83 points."
"This means that the Democratic base that voted for Kamala Harris is sticking with those congressional Democratic candidates to a much greater degree than those Trump voters are sticking with the Republican candidates for Congress," Enten added. "And that is why what you're seeing on that generic congressional ballot is Democrats leaping ahead by about five points, because. At least at this point, the Trump voters are not sticking by the Republicans as much as the Harris voters are sticking by the Democrats."
The same phenomenon seems to playing out among voters who did cast ballots in 2024, he said.
"Okay, so part of the equation, right, is that the Harris voters are really sticking with those Democratic candidates, more so than the Trump voters are sticking with the Republican candidates," Enten said. "But it's more than that. It's also people coming off of the sideline, okay, voters choice for election for the 2026 congressional elections if they didn't vote in 2024. Look at this: Democrats are winning that vote by a significant margin, by 16 percentage points. So you add on to that, the Harris voters sticking with the Democratic candidates, all of a sudden, you see hey, this is the way that Democrats are going to get back their congressional majority, and more than that, I will note, that in 2024, of course, the Trump voters, or the people who voted for Trump, he actually won a larger share of those non-2020 voters."
"So it's not just what we're seeing here, historically speaking, that, hey, non-voters vote Democrats," he added. "That was not the case in 2024, and when you put it all together, you put all of this together, what do we get? It's not just the House, it's the Senate as well. Democrats' chance to win the Senate a year ago was 19 percent, according to Kalshi, 30 percent six months ago, and now Democrats have a 40 percent chance of taking back the U.S. Senate."
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