Everything is going wrong for Republicans in Texas at a key point in the election cycle, Cook Political Report analyst Dave Wasserman told CNN's Brianna Keilar on News Central Thursday afternoon.
Recent polling has Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico leading Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton — a situation that coincides with President Donald Trump deciding to hold his extravagant midterm convention in Dallas to rally to his cause.
"You have the race as a Toss-Up, which is pretty extraordinary for Texas," Keilar told Wasserman, following up, "What kind of difference can Trump make in this particular race in Texas?"
"The hope here for President Trump and Republicans is to close this enthusiasm gap," said Wasserman. Despite Trump's unpopularity, he continued, Paxton is in even worse shape due to a slew of public corruption scandals and his marital infidelity, making him one of the few Republicans who could actually get a popularity boost from Trump.
Nonetheless, he continued, "What's happening in Texas right now appears to be a bit of a perfect storm Republicans are up against. Not only are Hispanic voters reverting to the levels of support that they used to provide for Democrats, particularly in South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley ... but also the energy grid. There are frustrations in rural Texas about data centers and the impact that new transmission lines might have on property rights."
Meanwhile, he said, inflation is hammering the Texas suburbs, and Trump's beef imports to try to tamp down grocery prices is enraging Texas ranchers as they struggle to compete.
"Although Democrats' path to the Senate probably runs more through the Midwest than Texas, the fact we're even talking about a Toss-Up in Texas tells you everything you need to know about the political climate at the moment," added Wasserman.
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