With just over a week until Election Day, Republicans are playing defense in states they usually don’t have to think about. One political scientist has a theory about why.
“My theory on why the GOP is going nuts over the midterms in deep red states: Nobody normally polls in the solidly red states,” Tim Hogan, a lawyer and liberal commentator, wrote in a widely shared thread on X.
Republicans have plenty of money, Hogan argued, and “anyone can see that Trump is depressing his own party’s turnout.” He said the party’s wealthy backers know it “could face a cataclysmic down-ballot slaughter on November 3rd.”
Hogan said Kansas, Iowa, Mississippi, and South Carolina “have been identified as appearing unexpectedly in-play.” He added that this is “mostly because they have terrible GOP candidates and electable Democrats.” He also said Montana, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Alabama “may be showing signs that are concerning.”
“A 1932-like bloodbath will hit everyone in the party that is hated,” Hogan predicted. He was referring to the election in which Democrats routed Republicans in the depths of the Great Depression.
He argued that Trump “turned ranchers and farmers against the GOP” with a trade war that hit their export markets and a war with Iran that sent fuel and fertilizer costs soaring. He added that abortion, once “the tie that bound the deep red states,” has largely faded as an issue.
“The dog caught the school bus,” he wrote.
Now, Hogan argued, the election is about economics and foreign affairs, and Trump is making it worse by bragging about how rich he and his allies are getting while Americans hurt.
“The voters hate Trump and they hate the GOP,” Hogan wrote. “Hate motivates voters. But this time the voters hate Trump and the GOP horse he rode in on.”
There are signs that Republicans are nervous. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) warned donors in a fundraising email this week that Texas “could very well go BLUE for the first time this century.” The Washington Post reported that a Black Democrat has a real shot in Mississippi’s Senate race, and that deep-red House districts have turned into battlegrounds.
Trump’s approval among registered voters sits at 33 percent in the latest Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll, a record low.
1/ My theory on why the GOP is going nuts over the midterms in deep red states: Nobody normally polls in the solidly red states. But the GOP has tons of money and anyone can see that Trump is depressing his own party's turnout and the big money that backs the GOP knows they
— Tim Hogan 浩勤 (@TimInHonolulu) October 25, 2026
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