House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is facing a serious problem with Latino voters, and new polling suggests it may be getting worse at exactly the wrong moment.
According to Axios, New Equis Research polling shows Democrats commanding a 26-point edge on the generic ballot among Latino voters, 57 percent to 31 percent. In competitive battleground districts, that gap widens even further, with Democrats leading likely Latino voters 62 percent to 38 percent in two-way races — an improvement over where Democrats stood with this group in 2022, though still below their 2018 high-water mark.
Republicans had convinced themselves that Trump’s surprising gains with Latino voters in 2024 marked the beginning of a lasting political realignment. Surveys throughout the year have consistently shown that realignment stalling out.
Trump’s approval rating among Latino voters now sits at just 30 percent, against a 65 percent disapproval rating — a 35-point deficit and the worst number Equis has ever recorded for him. The driving force behind that collapse is largely economic. A staggering 76 percent of Latino voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, which 52 percent identify as their single most important issue. Democrats now hold a 21-point advantage over Republicans on economic trust among this group, a dramatic swing from just 7 points back in February.
The warning signs are already showing up on the campaign trail. In Florida, Republican Rep. María Elvira Salazar has taken the unusual step of addressing Trump directly in a campaign ad, distancing herself from his immigration crackdown.
For Johnson, who needs Latino voters to hold their 2024 ground to preserve the GOP’s House majority, the numbers represent a serious threat. The same voters who swung toward Trump in 2024 may prove decisive in handing Congress back to Democrats.
MS NOW aired a series of interviews with Latino voters in Texas this week, which revealed many are furious — and ready to punish Trump at the ballot box.
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