A month after Republicans unleashed roughly $500 million on competitive House and Senate contests, the polls look much as they did before — and Texas shows why, according to a Washington Post analysis.
Democrat James Talarico has absorbed more than $115 million in attack ads, yet a late-September New York Times-Siena poll still has his favorable rating above his unfavorable. Republican nominee Ken Paxton's backers, meanwhile, are paying a steep premium for airtime. A Democratic media buyer calculated that in Dallas last week, Talarico's campaign spent $950,000 to put its message in front of the typical viewer 10 times, while Paxton's allies shelled out $4.65 million to reach that same viewer 13 times. That's about five times the spending for a modest bump in frequency.
Costs have soared enough that groups backing Paxton have begun buying national airtime during sporting events, banking on Texans tuning in, since that undercuts the price of covering each of the state's local markets.
Timing hurt too. Trump's super PACs only started spending after Labor Day, entering a market where airtime was already scarce and pricier than what earlier bookers paid. Unlike candidate campaigns, which get discounted rates, super PACs pay the full price, an edge for Democrats, whose candidates have raised more in marquee races. In Senate battlegrounds overall, AdImpact figures show Republicans paying about 26 percent more than Democrats for a 7 percent advantage in broadcast ads.
Focus groups showed Talarico holding up under attack as long as voters met him first, a person familiar with the research said, a lesson Democrats exploited by defining him before the Republican money arrived.
Elsewhere, public polling shows Democrats tied or ahead in Senate races in Alaska, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, no different from before Labor Day, while their advantage on the generic ballot has grown from about six points to roughly nine. In Michigan, Fox News polling has Abdul El-Sayed's favorable rating up five points since August to 47 percent, even after $76.2 million in attacks.
"They should be getting more for what they're spending, and they're not," said Lauren French of the Democratic Senate Majority PAC.
A Trump political operative, speaking anonymously, argued the spending has kept races close. "Our spending has enabled us to stay competitive," the operative said.
Already, Republican groups are beginning to pull money out of races they deem a lost cause. The leading Senate GOP super PAC dropped its remaining North Carolina ads, and the House GOP's counterpart scaled back its Omaha reservations.
