U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Senate Republican leaders hold a press conference following the Republican weekly policy lunch on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., August 4, 2026. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz
Charlie Cook has been forecasting elections since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election campaign, and the veteran forecaster predicted in a new interview that Republicans are headed for a crushing defeat in Tuesday’s midterms.
The founder of the Cook Political Report spoke to The New Republic's Greg Sargent, who asked him to describe what’s coming for the GOP as Americans head to the polls halfway through President Donald Trump's second term.
"How about an a--whooping?” Cook said. “It’s more than a beating. It’s a hell of a beating.”
“There’s no putting a smiley face on this thing,” he added.
Cook, who has covered 11 midterms and 11 presidential elections, called 2026 a “unicorn election” with dynamics he has never seen before.
In the Senate, Cook now expects Democrats to net five seats and reach 52, which would give them a majority that holds even if Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) defects. Earlier this year he expected a gain of only two or three seats, but now he said Democrats could even reach 53 or 54.
He also vouched for the New York Times/Siena polls showing Democrats leading in seven battleground Senate races, calling them “gold standard.” In Texas, he said Democrat James Talarico is likely up five to seven points over Republican Ken Paxton.
In the House, Cook said 230 Democratic seats is “the realistic floor” and that he’d take the over. He said he had considered calling the coming GOP losses “biblical” before settling on the worst environment for Republicans “in at least a generation, and maybe since Watergate.”
Cook said the biggest factor is disaffected Republicans. These are often rural, small-town voters who are angry about the Iran war, tariffs, and the cost of diesel, fuel and fertilizer.
“They expect a Democratic president to screw them,” Cook said. “They don’t expect a Republican president, this one, to screw them. But they’re feeling screwed.”
That anger is putting deep-red states like Kansas, South Carolina, Mississippi and Nebraska in play. Cook said mediocre GOP incumbents such as Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS), Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) and Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC) are in trouble. He said some Republicans “underperform what a potted plant might get” in their states.
Still, Cook warned Democrats not to read the results as a love letter, calling the dynamic a “red undertow” instead of a blue wave.
“This is really more about p---ed off at President Trump and at Republicans who enabled him,” he said. “The Democratic Party’s brand isn’t any better than it was two years ago.”
He predicted low Republican turnout and “off the charts” Black turnout, especially in the South.
“We’re going big,” Cook said.
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