Trump team feeling 'a little bit of anxiety' heading into Iowa vote: Morning Joe panelist

Donald Trump is widely expected to win the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus, but possibly not by as much as his campaign team had expected.

The expected margin of victory has thinned a bit heading into Monday's Republican primary vote, and MSNBC's Jonathan Lemire noted the situation has caused some internal anxiety among Trump allies.

"I think we've seen a little bit of anxiety from Trump folks in the last few days because they were so boldly, confidently predicting this blowout," Lemire told "Morning Joe." "Polls suggest he'll win by a sizable margin but maybe not by the number they had put out there, as you say, over 50 percent. There's a couple of reasons for that. One would be, of course, the weather ... there is concerns that people are going to stay home tonight because it'll be dangerous to be outside – legitimate reasons to stay home."

READ MORE: An Iowa obituary for Ron DeSantis’ presidential dreams

"Trump, for the first time all campaign, the last 24, 36 hours, went on the attack against Vivek Ramaswamy, of all people," Lemire added. "Ramaswamy has been supportive of Trump throughout his campaign. He's never criticized him, but the Trump people have really turned on him in recent days because Ramaswamy is still sticking in the 7 percent, 8 percent, 9 percent. His people who are for him are really for him, there's a lot of enthusiasm. Trump is trying to bang those people down, trying to switch them over to him for his margins. DeSantis' people think they have the best ground game. What that means for a campaign that seems to be half dead, we'll see, but some think he'll have a better than expected number because his team is motivated and organized to get people to caucus sites despite the bad weather. Yes, all eyes will be on the number that [Nikki] Haley comes up with."

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President Donald Trump's neglect of domestic issues as he pursues a deeply unpopular new war in Iran is dragging his numbers down to record lows, MS NOW's Ari Melber said on Tuesday, and turning some of his former most loyal disciples against him.

"The public has spoken, and they continue to speak against Trump," said Melber.

"Sometimes our words become very narrow," he continued. "We say 'Donald Trump' and you get a picture in your head. Maybe you're thinking of him from 2016. Maybe you're thinking of him during COVID. Maybe you're thinking of him now. Well, if you never liked him, fine, then that's what you think of. But a heck of a lot of Americans have given him a chance. He was running about 49 percent as recently as November 24th. That's also a fact. And a lot of those folks are done with him. Because when you say second-term Trump, Iran war ... prices keep going up, and he dismisses your concerns as peanuts."

"Well, take a look at the numbers that don't lie," Melber continued. "36 percent job approval is abysmal. He's hit a second-term low. Washington Post reporting on Democrats seeing an opening, midterm upsets in districts where Trump won safely that were MAGA turf. They think they can flip it."

"And that's not all. I want to show you something that you have to see to believe," said Melber. "Take in the sight of one of the greatest MAGA voices ever to grace your TV screen. Because he got big on Fox. Tucker Carlson, who also continues to be a big part of what we hear is the MAGAsphere, the digital space. He kind of has been able to walk both of those paths with media success, if you want to call it that. And he actively campaigned for Donald Trump in '24 because, having left Fox, there was no more standards or rules holding him back. And here is what Tucker Carlson has to say ... tonight, Tucker Carlson is apologizing for ever helping to elect Donald Trump."

"We're implicated in this, for sure, yes," said Carlson in the clip. "It's not enough to say, well, I changed my mind, or like, oh, this is bad. I'm out. You and me and millions of people like us are the reason this is happening right now. I do think it's like a moment to wrestle with our own consciences. You know? We'll be tormented by it for a long time. I will be, and I want to say I'm sorry for misleading people. It was not intentional. That's all I'll say."

"Tucker is sorry," said Melber. "And he's sorry, not only that he campaigned for Trump, but that, as he says, if it was misleading, because how could you accurately sell this thing that was itself not intentional? There's a lot there we might have to unpack."

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A federal district judge in Oregon overturned Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s directive that said health care facilities providing gender-affirming care to minors are barred from Medicare and Medicaid.

U.S. District Judge Mustafa Kasubhai, in a scathing opinion filed Saturday, called Kennedy’s Dec. 18 directive “one of a long list of examples of how a leader’s wanton disregard for the rule of law causes very real harm to very real people.”

“Secretary Kennedy’s unlawful declaration harmed children. This case illustrates that when a leader acts without authority and in the absence of the rule of law, he acts with cruelty,” Kasubhai wrote.

Kasubhai vacated the Dec. 18 declaration on “Safety, Effectiveness and Professional Standards of Care for Sex-Rejecting Procedures on Children and Adolescents,” as unlawful, saying Kennedy exceeded his authority and failed to follow required procedures for setting regulations.

He also ruled that federal officials lack the authority to set standards that supersede standards of care in the 21 states and the District of Columbia that sued to block the directive. And he prohibited HHS from trying to enforce the “Kennedy Declaration” or “any materially similar policy.”

In a brief emailed statement, HHS spokesperson Emily Hilliard said, “HHS will continue to fight to protect our nation’s children, as this Biden-appointed judge’s ruling puts radical ideology ahead of their safety.”

Maryland was one of 21 states and D.C. that filed suit on Dec. 23, claiming Kennedy’s directive exceeded his authority, violated the states’ rights to manage their Medicare systems as they saw fit and effectively banned “by fiat, an entire category of healthcare.”

Maryland Attorney General Anthony Brown welcomed the ruling in a prepared statement Monday as “a victory for every young Marylander, all of whom deserve access to the medical care their doctor recommends that is free from political interference.”

That was echoed by Oregon Attorney General Dan Rayfield, the lead plaintiff in the lawsuit.

“When families and doctors make healthcare decisions together, no federal official should be able to use threats and intimidation to get in the way,” Rayfield said in a statement Monday. “That’s what Secretary Kennedy tried to do — force hospitals and providers to abandon their patients. Oregon will always stand up for the dignity and wellbeing of every person.”

The dispute stems from the Dec. 18 directive that says, “Sex-rejecting procedures for children and adolescents are neither safe nor effective as a treatment modality for gender dysphoria, gender incongruence, or other related disorders in minors, and therefore, fail to meet professional [sic] recognized standards of health care.”

Kennedy said in a news conference that day, according to Kasubhai’s opinion, that the declaration should be taken as “a clear directive to providers to follow the science and the overwhelming body of evidence that these procedures hurt — not help — children” and that anyone providing such care would be “out of compliance with these standards of healthcare.”

The Kennedy Declaration exceeded Defendants’ statutory authority, flouted applicable notice and comment rulemaking procedures, and impeded Plaintiffs’ rights to regulate the medical profession and their discretion to design their own statutorily-compliant Medicaid plans,

– U.S. District Judge for Oregon Mustafa Kasubhai

Any health care provider that fails to meet professionally recognized standards of care can be excluded from participation in Medicare and Medicaid — effectively cut off from federal funding — on a finding by the HHS Office of Inspector General.

In the weeks after the directive was issued, HHS General Counsel Mike Stuart referred 18 health care facilities that offered gender-affirming care to the inspector general for investigation under the Dec. 18 directive. Included in the referrals were the Johns Hopkins Center for Transgender and Gender Expansive Health and Hopkins’ Emerge Gender and Sexuality Clinic.

The directive had the intended effect. By Feb. 11, Stuart was saying on social media that “more than 40 hospital systems across the country have made the right decision to stop these heinous procedures.”

HHS argued in court that the declaration was not a “‘definitive statement’ on the standard of care” that the inspector general has to apply, but merely Kennedy’s musings on the topic, and could not be challenged by the states as an official regulation. And because the inspector general has not ruled on any of the referrals, there is no damage for the states to assert, the government said.

It also claimed that reversing the directive would deny Kennedy his First Amendment right to express his views on important public issues.

Kasubhai called that argument “absurd,” and said he could “scarcely recall an … action that has come before it [the court] in which the agency’s action was so clearly unlawful.” He said many of the government’s arguments were based on “falsehoods.”

“Defendants cannot bully or gaslight this Court into ignoring the many procedural and legal flaws of the Kennedy Declaration by invoking one of the most sacred principles of our constitutional democracy — the freedom of speech — when that principle comes nowhere close to being implicated,” Kasubhai wrote.

He said the states’ lawsuit has nothing to do with Kennedy’s right to express his opinion about gender-affirming care for minors.

“Rather, Plaintiffs’ claims challenge Secretary Kennedy’s authority to unilaterally, categorically, and without any process, supersede professional standards of care regarding gender-affirming care that apply in the Plaintiff states,” he wrote.

What is at stake, Kasubhai said, is the rule of law and state sovereignty.

“The Kennedy Declaration exceeded Defendants’ statutory authority, flouted applicable notice and comment rulemaking procedures, and impeded Plaintiffs’ rights to regulate the medical profession and their discretion to design their own statutorily-compliant Medicaid plans,” he wrote, before entering his order.

In addition to Maryland, Oregon and D.C., states involved in the suit included California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin.

— This story was updated at 6 p.m. Tuesday to correct the number of states involved in the lawsuit against HHS.

This story was originally produced by Maryland Matters, which is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network which includes Oregon Capital Chronicle, and is supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity.

Oregon Capital Chronicle is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Oregon Capital Chronicle maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Julia Shumway for questions: info@oregoncapitalchronicle.com.

President Donald Trump's Department of Justice sent chills down the spines of political analysts and observers on Tuesday after it indicted a prominent advocacy group.

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche and FBI Director Kash Patel announced that the Trump DOJ indicted the Southern Poverty Law Center on 11 counts of wire and bank fraud related to the group's efforts to infiltrate extremist operations across the country. The investigation was announced just days after a bombshell report from The Atlantic revealed that Patel is frequently absent from his job and often drinks to excess.

“The SPLC was not dismantling these groups. It was instead manufacturing the extremism it purports to oppose by paying sources to stoke racial hatred,” Blanche said.

SPLC CEO Bryan Fair told The Associated Press that the organization "will vigorously defend ourselves, our staff, and our work.”

Political analysts and observers reacted to the news on social media.

"Chilling and outrageous," Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) posted on X. "This is all part of their ongoing project to silence dissent through intimidation. We will not let them get away with it."

"If this is true, right-wing organizations like Project Veritas & O'Keefe Media Group best be concerned. What's good for the goose is good for the gander," lawyer Mark S. Zaid posted on X.

"Oh for God's sake," Timothy McBride, a professor at Washington University, posted on Bluesky.

"Worth noting how many organizations like SPLC neutered themselves and the work that they do, trying to avoid this very moment," journalist Melissa Ryan posted on Bluesky. "Especially since Trump won again. But MAGA was always going to come for them. And eventually, we'll all be targets. No matter how much we tried to remain nonpartisan, etc."

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