President Donald Trump's recent remarks could signal an upcoming move with "almost unimaginable humanitarian consequences," political scientist Robert Pape warned Friday.
Amid the ongoing and deeply unpopular U.S. war against Iran, Trump told Axios on Thursday that he was “close to making a decision” on launching a “massive attack,” one “bigger than ever before.” He also said Iran had “not suffered enough yet,” and noted that the U.S. military was ready to execute Trump’s plan at any moment.
Pape, a professor of political science and former educator at a U.S. military institution, flagged Trump’s remark regarding Iran having not “suffered enough” as particularly telling given the president’s recent threats to destroy civilian infrastructure.
“If mass punishment becomes the next escalation of the war, the obvious place to understand its consequences is Tehran,” Pape wrote in an analysis published Friday on his Substack.
“With roughly ten million residents, Tehran is Iran’s political capital, economic center, communications hub, and transportation nexus. If the objective is to impose visible national pain, nowhere else in Iran carries comparable political weight. But, what happens to an entire modern city when the electricity that sustains it suddenly disappears?”
Recalling his time instructing officers at the U.S. Air Force’s School of Advanced Airpower Studies, Pape noted how American air strategy over the past several decades has steered away from targeting energy-producing infrastructure. With Trump’s explicit threats to destroy power plants, however, Pape feared that the Trump administration was readying a crippling attack on Iran’s largest city.
“The humanitarian consequences are almost unimaginable. The strategic consequences are even more important,” Pape wrote.
“History strongly suggests that inflicting massive civilian suffering through electric power targeting rarely produces rapid political capitulation when governments believe their survival is at stake. Instead, punishment tends to deepen popular anger, strengthen elite resolve, and create overwhelming incentives for retaliation.”
Pape continued, “Turning off the lights is easy. Living with what comes next – for Iranians, Americans, Israelis, and the countries hosting U.S. forces across the region – is far harder.”
